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Statistical Downscaling of Wintertime Temperatures over South Korea

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  • 1 School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
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Abstract

Reanalysis data have global coverage and faithfully render large-scale phenomena. On the other hand, regional and small-scale characteristics of atmospheric variability are poorly resolved. In an attempt to improve reanalysis data for regional use, a statistical downscaling strategy is developed based on cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis. The developed algorithm is applied to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis data and to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data in order to produce winter temperatures at 60 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations over the Korean Peninsula. The developed downscaling algorithm is evaluated by predicting winter daily temperatures from 17 November to 16 March for 35 years (1979–2014). For validating the downscaling algorithm the jackknife method is used, in which winter daily temperature is predicted over a 1-yr period not used for training. This procedure is repeated for the entire data period. The mean and variance of the resulting downscaled temperatures match reasonably well with those of the KMA measurements. Validation based on correlation and error variance shows that the temperatures at 60 KMA stations are faithfully reproduced based on coarse reanalysis data. The utility of this technique for downscaling model predictions based on future scenarios is also addressed.

Corresponding author address: Kwang-Yul Kim, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea. E-mail: kwang56@snu.ac.kr

Abstract

Reanalysis data have global coverage and faithfully render large-scale phenomena. On the other hand, regional and small-scale characteristics of atmospheric variability are poorly resolved. In an attempt to improve reanalysis data for regional use, a statistical downscaling strategy is developed based on cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis. The developed algorithm is applied to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis data and to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data in order to produce winter temperatures at 60 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations over the Korean Peninsula. The developed downscaling algorithm is evaluated by predicting winter daily temperatures from 17 November to 16 March for 35 years (1979–2014). For validating the downscaling algorithm the jackknife method is used, in which winter daily temperature is predicted over a 1-yr period not used for training. This procedure is repeated for the entire data period. The mean and variance of the resulting downscaled temperatures match reasonably well with those of the KMA measurements. Validation based on correlation and error variance shows that the temperatures at 60 KMA stations are faithfully reproduced based on coarse reanalysis data. The utility of this technique for downscaling model predictions based on future scenarios is also addressed.

Corresponding author address: Kwang-Yul Kim, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea. E-mail: kwang56@snu.ac.kr
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