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Editorial Type:
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Article Type:
Research Article

Medium- to Long-Term Forecasts of Sea Surface Height Anomalies Using a Spatiotemporal Empirical Orthogonal Function Method

Yuxin Zhao College of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, China

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Dequan Yang College of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, China

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Wei Li School of Marine Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China

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Chang Liu College of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, China

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Xiong Deng College of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, China

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Rixu Hao College of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, China

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Zhongjie He College of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, China

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Online Publication:
04 Dec 2020
Print Publication:
01 Dec 2020
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-20-0029.1
Page(s):
2225–2237
Restricted access

Abstract

A spatiotemporal empirical orthogonal function (STEOF) forecast method is proposed and used in medium- to long-term sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) forecast. This method embeds temporal information in empirical orthogonal function spatial patterns, effectively capturing the evolving spatial distribution of variables and avoiding the typical rapid accumulation of forecast errors. The forecast experiments are carried out for SSHA in the South China Sea to evaluate the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that the STEOF forecast method consistently outperforms the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), optimal climatic normal (OCN), and persistence prediction. The model accurately forecasts the intensity and location of ocean eddies, indicating its great potential for practical applications in medium- to long-term ocean forecasts.

© 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Zhongjie He, hzj@hrbeu.edu.cn

Abstract

A spatiotemporal empirical orthogonal function (STEOF) forecast method is proposed and used in medium- to long-term sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) forecast. This method embeds temporal information in empirical orthogonal function spatial patterns, effectively capturing the evolving spatial distribution of variables and avoiding the typical rapid accumulation of forecast errors. The forecast experiments are carried out for SSHA in the South China Sea to evaluate the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that the STEOF forecast method consistently outperforms the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), optimal climatic normal (OCN), and persistence prediction. The model accurately forecasts the intensity and location of ocean eddies, indicating its great potential for practical applications in medium- to long-term ocean forecasts.

© 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Zhongjie He, hzj@hrbeu.edu.cn
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