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HEMISPHERICAL PREDICTION BY STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES

Robert M. WhiteGeophysics Research Directorate, Air Force Cambridge Research Center

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Royce C. DerbyGeophysics Research Directorate, Air Force Cambridge Research Center

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Duane S. CooleyGeophysics Research Directorate, Air Force Cambridge Research Center

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Florence A. SeaverGeophysics Research Directorate, Air Force Cambridge Research Center

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Abstract

A statistical procedure suitable for forecasting the hemispherical midtropospheric contour-height distribution is developed. Least-squares empirical filters are designed to yield the 24-hour 500-mb contour heights as functions of the preceding two-day sequence of contour heights at the same level. The results indicate that the statistical procedure may provide useful forecasts for twenty-four hours over regions of the hemisphere with adequate data coverage. The utility of the system for extended-range forecasting is also discussed.

Abstract

A statistical procedure suitable for forecasting the hemispherical midtropospheric contour-height distribution is developed. Least-squares empirical filters are designed to yield the 24-hour 500-mb contour heights as functions of the preceding two-day sequence of contour heights at the same level. The results indicate that the statistical procedure may provide useful forecasts for twenty-four hours over regions of the hemisphere with adequate data coverage. The utility of the system for extended-range forecasting is also discussed.

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