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Atmospheric Analogs and Recurrence Time Statistics: Toward a Dynamical Formulation

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  • 1 Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique, Brussels, Belgium
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Abstract

A dynamical approach to atmospheric analogs extending the statistical formulation by Toth and Van den Dool is developed. Explicit analytical formulas for the probability and the mean recurrence time of analogs displaying the system’s intrinsic time scales are provided for both discrete and continuous time dynamical systems and are evaluated numerically on a representative model. The analysis reveals strong dependence of recurrence times of analogs on the local properties of the attractor and a pronounced variability around their mean. Finally, the formulation is extended to stochastically forced systems such as a red noise atmosphere.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Catherine Nicolis, Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique, Avenue Circulaire 3, B-1180 Bruxelles, Belgium.

Email: cnicolis@oma.be

Abstract

A dynamical approach to atmospheric analogs extending the statistical formulation by Toth and Van den Dool is developed. Explicit analytical formulas for the probability and the mean recurrence time of analogs displaying the system’s intrinsic time scales are provided for both discrete and continuous time dynamical systems and are evaluated numerically on a representative model. The analysis reveals strong dependence of recurrence times of analogs on the local properties of the attractor and a pronounced variability around their mean. Finally, the formulation is extended to stochastically forced systems such as a red noise atmosphere.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Catherine Nicolis, Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique, Avenue Circulaire 3, B-1180 Bruxelles, Belgium.

Email: cnicolis@oma.be

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