Cover Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

  • Barnett, T. P., and R. W. Preisendorfer, 1978: Multifield analog prediction of short-term climate fluctuations using a climate state vector. J. Atmos. Sci,35, 1771–1787.

  • ——, M. Latif, N. Graham, M. FlĂĽgel, S. Pazan, and W. White, 1993:ENSO and ENSO-related predictability. Part I: Prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with hybrid coupled ocean–atmosphere model. J. Climate,6, 1545–1566.

  • Biau, G., E. Zorita, H. von Storch, and H. Wackernagel, 1999: Estimation of precipitation by kriging in the EOF space of the sea level pressure field. J. Climate,12, 1070–1085.

  • Blackmon, M. L., 1976: A climatological spectral study of the 500 mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci.,33, 1607–1623.

  • Cubasch, U., K. Hasselmann, H. Höck, E. Maier-Reimer, U. Mikolajewicz, B. D. Santer, and R. Sausen, 1992: Time-dependent greenhouse warming computations with a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Climate Dyn.,8, 55–69.

  • da Costa, E., and R. Vautard, 1997: A qualitatively realistic low-order model of the extratropical low-frequency variability built from long records of potential vorticity. J. Atmos. Sci.,54, 1064–1984.

  • Drosdowksy, W., 1994: Analog (nonlinear) forecasts of the Southern Oscillation index time series. Wea. Forecasting,9, 78–84.

  • Fraedrich, K., 1986: Estimating the dimension of weather and climate attractors. J. Atmos. Sci.,43, 331–344.

  • ——, and L. Leslie, 1991: Predictability studies of the Antarctic atmosphere. Aust. Meteor. Mag.,39, 1–9.

  • ——, and B. RĂĽckert, 1998: Metric adaption for analog forecasting. Physica A,254, 379–393.

  • Hasselmann, K., 1976: Stochastic climate models. Part I. Theory. Tellus,28, 473–485.

  • Lau, N.-C., 1988: Variability of the observed midlatitude storm tracks in relation to low-frequency changes in the circulation patterns. J. Atmos. Sci.,45, 2718–2743.

  • Livezey, R. E., and A. G. Barnston, 1988: An operational multifield analog/antianalog prediction system for United States seasonal temperatures. Part I: System design and winter experiments. J. Geophys. Res.,93 (D9), 10 953–10 974.

  • Lorenz, E. N., 1969: Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues. J. Atmos. Sci.,26, 636–646.

  • Manabe, S., and R. J. Stouffer, 1994: Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. J. Climate,7, 5–23.

  • Montoya, M., T. J. Crowley, and H. von Storch, 1998: Temperatures at the last interglacial simulated by a coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model. Paleooceanogr.,13, 170–177.

  • Opsteegh, J. D., and H. M. van den Dool, 1979: A diagnostic study of the time mean atmosphere over nortwestern Europe during winter. J. Atmos. Sci.,36, 1862–1879.

  • Petterssen, S., 1957: Weather observations, analysis and forecasting. Meteor. Monogr., No. 3, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 114–151.

  • van den Dool, H. M., 1994: Searching for analogues, how long must we wait? Tellus,46A, 314–324.

  • von Storch, H., 1997: Conditional statistical models: A discourse about the local scale in climate modelling. Monte Carlo Simulations in Oceanography, Proc. ’Aha Huliko’a Hawaiian Winter Workshop, Manoa, HI, University of Hawaii, 58–59.

  • ——, and F. W. Zwiers, 1998: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press, 528 pp.

  • von Storch, J.-S., V. Kharin, U. Cubasch, G. C. Hegerl, D. Schriever, H. von Storch, and E. Zorita, 1997: A description of a 1260-year control integration with the coupled ECHAM1/LSG general circulation model. J. Climate,10, 1526–1544.

  • Wackernagel, H., 1994: Cokriging versus kriging in regionalized multivariate data analysis. Geoderma,62, 83–92.

  • Xu, W., T. P. Barnett, and M. Latif, 1998: Decadal variability in the North Pacific as simulated by a hybrid coupled model. J. Climate,11, 297–312.

  • Zorita, E., J. P. Hughes, D. P. Lettenmaier, and H. von Storch, 1995:Stochastic characterization of regional circulation patterns for climate model diagnosis and estimation of local precipitation. J. Climate,8, 1023–1042.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 140 7 2
PDF Downloads 0 0 0
Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

An Empirical Approach for Estimating Macroturbulent Heat Transport Conditional upon the Mean State

Ute Luksch1 and Hans von Storch1
View More View Less
  • 1 Meteorologisches Institut der Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Print Publication:
01 Jul 1999
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<2070:AEAFEM>2.0.CO;2
Page(s):
2070–2080
Restricted access

Abstract

A stochastic specification for monthly mean wintertime eddy heat transport conditional upon the monthly mean circulation is proposed. The approach is based on an analog technique. The nearest neighbor for the monthly mean streamfunction (at 850 and 300 hPa) is searched for in a library composed of monthly data of a 1268-yr control simulation with a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. To reduce the degrees of freedom a limited area (the North Atlantic sector) is used for the analog specification. The monthly means of northward transient eddy flux of temperature (at 750 hPa) are simulated as a function of these analogues.

The stochastic model is applied to 300 years of a paleosimulation (last interglacial maximum around 125 kyr BP). The level of variability of the eddy heat flux is reproduced by the analog estimator, as well as the link between monthly mean circulation and synoptic-scale variability. The changed boundary conditions (solar radiation and CO2 level) cause the Eemian variability to be significantly reduced compared to the control simulation. Although analogues are not a very good predictor of heat fluxes for individual months, they turn out to be excellent predictors of the distribution (or at least the variance) of heat fluxes in an anomalous climate.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Ute Luksch, Meteorologisches Institut der Universität Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. E-mail: Luksch@elkrz.de

Abstract

A stochastic specification for monthly mean wintertime eddy heat transport conditional upon the monthly mean circulation is proposed. The approach is based on an analog technique. The nearest neighbor for the monthly mean streamfunction (at 850 and 300 hPa) is searched for in a library composed of monthly data of a 1268-yr control simulation with a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. To reduce the degrees of freedom a limited area (the North Atlantic sector) is used for the analog specification. The monthly means of northward transient eddy flux of temperature (at 750 hPa) are simulated as a function of these analogues.

The stochastic model is applied to 300 years of a paleosimulation (last interglacial maximum around 125 kyr BP). The level of variability of the eddy heat flux is reproduced by the analog estimator, as well as the link between monthly mean circulation and synoptic-scale variability. The changed boundary conditions (solar radiation and CO2 level) cause the Eemian variability to be significantly reduced compared to the control simulation. Although analogues are not a very good predictor of heat fluxes for individual months, they turn out to be excellent predictors of the distribution (or at least the variance) of heat fluxes in an anomalous climate.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Ute Luksch, Meteorologisches Institut der Universität Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. E-mail: Luksch@elkrz.de

Save