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Article Type:
Research Article

Toward Understanding the Dynamical Origin of Atmospheric Regime Behavior in a Baroclinic Model

Mario Sempf Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany

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Klaus Dethloff Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany

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Dörthe Handorf Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany

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Michael V. Kurgansky Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Physics and Mathematics, University of Concepción, Concepción, Chile

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Print Publication:
01 Mar 2007
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3862.1
Page(s):
887–904
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Abstract

Dynamical mechanisms of atmospheric regime behavior are investigated in the context of a quasigeostrophic three-level T21 model of the wintertime atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere. The model, driven by realistic orography and using a thermal forcing determined by a newly developed tuning procedure, is shown to possess a reasonable climatology and to simulate the Arctic Oscillation quite realistically. It exhibits pronounced internally generated interannual and decadal variability and, in particular, circulation regimes that agree fairly well with observed ones. Two known hypotheses about the origin of regime behavior, as it occurs in the model herein are addressed: (i) multiple equilibria and (ii) chaotic itinerancy between attractor ruins. The first hypothesis is falsified at very high probability, while the second is likely to be true.

* Current affiliation: Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Garching, Germany

+ On leave from A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Moscow, Russia

Corresponding author address: Mario Sempf, Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Boltzmannstraße 2, D-85748 Garching, Germany. Email: msempf@ipp.mpg.de

Abstract

Dynamical mechanisms of atmospheric regime behavior are investigated in the context of a quasigeostrophic three-level T21 model of the wintertime atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere. The model, driven by realistic orography and using a thermal forcing determined by a newly developed tuning procedure, is shown to possess a reasonable climatology and to simulate the Arctic Oscillation quite realistically. It exhibits pronounced internally generated interannual and decadal variability and, in particular, circulation regimes that agree fairly well with observed ones. Two known hypotheses about the origin of regime behavior, as it occurs in the model herein are addressed: (i) multiple equilibria and (ii) chaotic itinerancy between attractor ruins. The first hypothesis is falsified at very high probability, while the second is likely to be true.

* Current affiliation: Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Garching, Germany

+ On leave from A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Moscow, Russia

Corresponding author address: Mario Sempf, Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Boltzmannstraße 2, D-85748 Garching, Germany. Email: msempf@ipp.mpg.de

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