Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Dynamics of Prediction Errors under the Combined Effect of Initial Condition and Model Errors

C. Nicolis Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique, Brussels, Belgium

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Rui A. P. Perdigao Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique, Brussels, Belgium

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S. Vannitsem Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique, Brussels, Belgium

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Print Publication:
01 Mar 2009
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2781.1
Page(s):
766–778
Restricted access

Abstract

The transient evolution of prediction errors in the short to intermediate time regime is considered under the combined effect of initial condition and model errors. Some generic features are brought out and connected with intrinsic properties. Under the assumption of small uncorrelated initial errors and of small parameter errors, the conditions of existence of a time at which the mean quadratic error reaches a minimum and of a crossover time at which the contribution of initial condition errors matches that of model errors are determined. The results are illustrated and tested on representative low-order models of atmospheric dynamics exhibiting bistability, saddle-point behavior, and chaotic behavior.

* Current affiliation: Instituto Dom Luiz, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal

Corresponding author address: Catherine Nicolis, Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique, Avenue Circulaire 3, B-1180 Brussels, Belgium. Email: cnicolis@oma.be

Abstract

The transient evolution of prediction errors in the short to intermediate time regime is considered under the combined effect of initial condition and model errors. Some generic features are brought out and connected with intrinsic properties. Under the assumption of small uncorrelated initial errors and of small parameter errors, the conditions of existence of a time at which the mean quadratic error reaches a minimum and of a crossover time at which the contribution of initial condition errors matches that of model errors are determined. The results are illustrated and tested on representative low-order models of atmospheric dynamics exhibiting bistability, saddle-point behavior, and chaotic behavior.

* Current affiliation: Instituto Dom Luiz, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal

Corresponding author address: Catherine Nicolis, Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique, Avenue Circulaire 3, B-1180 Brussels, Belgium. Email: cnicolis@oma.be

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