Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Jet Variability: Precursors to NAO Regimes and Transitions

Dehai Luo RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Search for other papers by Dehai Luo in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
and
Jing Cha RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Search for other papers by Jing Cha in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Dec 2012
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-098.1
Page(s):
3763–3787
Restricted access

We are aware of a technical issue preventing figures and tables from showing in some newly published articles in the full-text HTML view.
While we are resolving the problem, please use the online PDF version of these articles to view figures and tables.

Abstract

In this paper, precursors to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its transitions are investigated to understand the dynamical cause of the interdecadal NAO variability from dominant negative (NAO−) events during 1950–77 (P1) to dominant positive (NAO+) events during 1978–2010 (P2). It is found that the phase of the NAO event depends strongly on the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic jet (NAJ) prior to the NAO onset. The NAO− (NAO+) events occur frequently when the NAJ core prior to the NAO onset is displaced southward (northward), as the situation within P1 (P2). Thus, the northward (southward) shift of the NAJ from its mean position is a precursor to the NAO+ (NAO−) event.

This finding is further supported by results obtained from a weakly nonlinear model. Furthermore, the model results show that, when the Atlantic mean zonal wind exceeds a critical strength under which the dipole anomaly prior to the NAO onset is stationary, in situ NAO− (NAO+) events, which are events not preceded by opposite events, can occur frequently during P1 (P2) when the Atlantic storm track is not too strong. This mean zonal wind condition is easily satisfied during P1 and P2. However, when the Atlantic storm track (mean zonal wind) prior to the NAO onset is markedly intensified (weakened), the NAO event can undergo a transition from one phase to another, especially in a relatively strong background westerly wind, the Atlantic storm track has to be strong enough to produce a phase transition.

Current affiliation: Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Dehai Luo, RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China. E-mail: ldh@mail.iap.ac.cn

Abstract

In this paper, precursors to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its transitions are investigated to understand the dynamical cause of the interdecadal NAO variability from dominant negative (NAO−) events during 1950–77 (P1) to dominant positive (NAO+) events during 1978–2010 (P2). It is found that the phase of the NAO event depends strongly on the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic jet (NAJ) prior to the NAO onset. The NAO− (NAO+) events occur frequently when the NAJ core prior to the NAO onset is displaced southward (northward), as the situation within P1 (P2). Thus, the northward (southward) shift of the NAJ from its mean position is a precursor to the NAO+ (NAO−) event.

This finding is further supported by results obtained from a weakly nonlinear model. Furthermore, the model results show that, when the Atlantic mean zonal wind exceeds a critical strength under which the dipole anomaly prior to the NAO onset is stationary, in situ NAO− (NAO+) events, which are events not preceded by opposite events, can occur frequently during P1 (P2) when the Atlantic storm track is not too strong. This mean zonal wind condition is easily satisfied during P1 and P2. However, when the Atlantic storm track (mean zonal wind) prior to the NAO onset is markedly intensified (weakened), the NAO event can undergo a transition from one phase to another, especially in a relatively strong background westerly wind, the Atlantic storm track has to be strong enough to produce a phase transition.

Current affiliation: Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Dehai Luo, RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China. E-mail: ldh@mail.iap.ac.cn
Save
Cover Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

  • Archambault, H. M., D. Keyser, and L. F. Bosart, 2010: Relationship between large-scale regime transitions and major cool-season precipitation events in the northeastern United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3454–3473.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Barnes, E. A., and D. L. Hartmann, 2010: Influence of eddy-driven jet latitude on North Atlantic jet persistence and blocking frequency in CMIP3 integrations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L23802, doi:10.1029/2010GL045700.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Benedict, J. J., S. Lee, and S. B. Feldstein, 2004: Synoptic view of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 121–144.

  • Cassou, C., 2008: Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Nature,455, 523–527, doi:10.1038/nature07286.

  • Cassou, C., L. Terray, J. Hurrell, and C. Deser, 2004: North Atlantic winter climate regimes: Spatial asymmetry, stationarity with time, and oceanic forcing. J. Climate, 17, 1055–1068.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Catto, J. L., L. C. Shaffrey, and K. I. Hodges, 2011: Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones in a warming climate in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model. J. Climate, 24, 5336–5352.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chang, E. K. M., and Y. Fu, 2002: Interdecadal variations in Northern Hemisphere winter storm track intensity. J. Climate, 15, 642–658.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cohen, J., and M. Barlow, 2005: The NAO, the AO, and global warming: How closely related. J. Climate, 18, 4498–4513.

  • Dong, B., R. T. Sutton, and T. Woollings, 2011: Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing. Climate Dyn., 37, 1621–1641, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0936-6.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Feldstein, S. B., 2000: The timescale, power spectra, and climate noise properties of teleconnection patterns. J. Climate, 13, 4430–4440.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Feldstein, S. B., 2002: The recent trend and variance increase of the annular mode. J. Climate, 15, 88–94.

  • Feldstein, S. B., 2003: The dynamics of NAO teleconnection pattern growth and decay. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 901–924.

  • Franzke, C., 2009: Multi-scale analysis of teleconnection indices: Climate noise and nonlinear trends. Nonlinear Processes Geophys., 16, 65–76.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Franzke, C., and T. Woollings, 2011: On the persistence and predictability properties of North Atlantic climate variability. J. Climate, 24, 466–472.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Franzke, C., S. Lee, and S. B. Feldstein, 2004: Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a breaking wave? J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 145–160.

  • Franzke, C., T. Woollings, and O. Martius, 2011: Persistent circulation regimes and preferred regime transitions in the North Atlantic. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2809–2825.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Graf, H.-F., J. Perlwitz, I. Kirchner, and I. Schult, 1995: Recent northern winter climate trends, ozone changes and increased greenhouse gas forcing. Contrib. Atmos. Phys., 68, 233–248.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hall, N. M., B. J. Hoskins, P. J. Valdes, and C. A. Senior, 1994: Storm tracks in a high-resolution GCM with doubled carbon dioxide. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 1209–1230.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hoerling, M. P., J. W. Hurrell, T. Xu, G. T. Bates and A. S. Phillips, 2004: Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming. Climate Dyn.,23, 391–405, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0433-x.

  • Hurrell, J. W., 1995: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperature and precipitation. Science, 269, 676–679.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hurrell, J. W., M. P. Hoerling, A. S. Phillips, and T. Xu, 2004: Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part I: Assessing determinism. Climate Dyn., 23, 371–389, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0432-y.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Johnson, N. C., S. B. Feldstein, and B. Tremblay, 2008: The continuum of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns and a description of the NAO shift with the use of self-organizing maps. J. Climate, 21, 6354–6371.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kug, J.-S., F.-F. Jin, J. Park, H.-L. Ren, and I.-S. Kang, 2010: A general rule for synoptic-eddy feedback onto low-frequency flow. Climate Dyn., 35, 1011–1026.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lau, N. C., 1988: Variability of the observed midlatitude storm tracks in relation to low-frequency changes in the circulation pattern. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2718–2743.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Luo, D., A. Lupo, and H. Wan, 2007a: Dynamics of eddy-driven low-frequency dipole modes. Part I: A simple model of North Atlantic Oscillations. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3–38.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Luo, D., T. Gong, and Y. Diao, 2007b: Dynamics of eddy-driven low-frequency dipole modes. Part III: Meridional displacement of westerly jet anomalies during two phases of NAO. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3232–3248.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Luo, D., T. Gong, and L. Zhong, 2008: Dynamical relationship between the phase of North Atlantic Oscillations and the meridional excursion of a preexisting jet: An analytical study. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1838–1858.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Luo, D., Z. Zhu, R. Ren, L. Zhong, and C. Wang, 2010: Spatial pattern and zonal shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Part I: A dynamical interpretation. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2805–2826.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Luo, D., Y. Diao, and S. B. Feldstein, 2011: The variability of the Atlantic storm track and the North Atlantic Oscillation: A link between intraseasonal and interannual variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 557–601.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Luo, D., J. Cha, and S. B. Feldstein, 2012a: Weather regime transitions and the interannual variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Part I: A likely connection. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2329–2346.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Luo, D., J. Cha, and S. B. Feldstein, 2012b: Weather regime transitions and the interannual variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Part II: Dynamical processes. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2347–2363.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Michel, C., and G. Rivière, 2011: The link between Rossby wave breakings and weather regime transitions. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1730–1745.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Paeth, H., A. Hense, R. Glowienka-Hense, S. Vose, and U. Cubasch, 1999: The North Atlantic Oscillation as an indicator for greenhouse-gas induced regional climate change. Climate Dyn., 15, 953–960.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pinto, J. G., M. Reyers, and U. Ulbrich, 2011: The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations. Climate Dyn., 36, 337–354.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rivière, G., 2009: Effect of latitudinal variations in low-level baroclinicity on eddy life cycles and upper-tropospheric wave-breaking processes. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1569–1592.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rivière, G., 2011: A dynamical interpretation of the poleward shift of the jet stream in global warming scenarios. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1253–1272.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rivière, G., and I. Orlanski, 2007: Characteristics of the Atlantic storm-track eddy activity and its relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 241–266.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rodwell, M. J., D. P. Rowell, and C. K. Folland, 1999: Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate. Nature, 398, 320–323.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rogers, J. C., 1997: North Atlantic storm track variability and its association to the North Atlantic Oscillation and climate variability of northern Europe. J. Climate, 10, 1635–1647.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Shindell, D. T., R. L. Miller, G. A. Schmidt, and L. Pandolfo, 1999: Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing. Nature, 399, 452–455.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Stephenson, D. B., V. Pavan, and R. Bojariu, 2000: Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a random walk? Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1–18.

  • Strong, C., and R. E. Davis, 2008: Variability in the position and strength of winter jet stream cores related to Northern Hemisphere teleconnections. J. Climate, 21, 584–592.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Thorncroft, C. D., B. J. Hoskins, and M. McIntyre, 1993: Two paradigms of baroclinic-wave life-cycle behaviour. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 17–55.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ulbrich, U., and M. Christoph, 1999: A shift of the NAO and increasing storm track activity over Europe due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Climate Dyn., 15, 551–559.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Vallis, G., and E. Gerber, 2008: Local and hemispheric dynamics of the North Atlantic Oscillation, annular patterns and the zonal index. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 44, 184–212.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wettstein, J. J., and J. M. Wallace, 2010: Observed patterns of month-to-month storm-track variability and their relationship to the background flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 1420–1437.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Woollings, T., B. J. Hoskins, M. Blackburn, and P. Berrisford, 2008: A new Rossby wave–breaking interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 609–626.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Woollings, T., A. Hannachi, and B. Hoskins, 2010: Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 856–868.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Woollings, T., J. M. Gregory, J. G. Pinto, M Reyers, and D. J. Brayshaw, 2012: Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling. Nat. Geosci.,5, 313–317, doi:10.1038/ngeo1438.

  • Wunsch, C., 1999: The interpretation of short climate records, with comments on the North Atlantic and Southern Oscillations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 245–255.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Yin, J. H., 2005: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701, doi:10.1029/2005GL023684.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Zhang, Y., X.-Q. Yang, Y. Nie, and G. Chen, 2012: Annular mode–like variation in a multilayer quasigeostrophic model. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2940–2958.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1030 535 298
PDF Downloads 373 73 5