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Article Type:
Research Article

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies off Baja California: A Possible Precursor of ENSO

Jiaxin Feng Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, and Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

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Zhaohua Wu Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, and Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

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Xiaolei Zou Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

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Print Publication:
01 May 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0397.1
Page(s):
1529–1537
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Abstract

Many recent studies have shown that observed El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are spatially and temporally diverse and that they have undergone changes in characteristics. To quantitatively capture these features, multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) is employed to isolate the temporal–spatial evolution of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on naturally separated time scales. An alternative Niño-3.4 index is also defined to reflect more on the interannual variability of equatorial Pacific SSTAs. Using this alternative index, 27 ENSO warm events are identified and the spatial–temporal evolution of each event is examined. It is found that a patch of SSTAs off Baja California appears to extend southwestward and reach the equatorial region near the international date line in about 1 year. This warm signal then amplifies and extends eastward, developing into an ENSO warm event. This type of development has been dominant in recent decades. For this type of ENSO warm event, it appears that SSTAs off Baja California are instrumental to ENSO development, possibly serving as a precursor of an ENSO event.

Corresponding author address: Zhaohua Wu, Meteorology, Rm. 404 Love Bldg., The Florida State University, 1017 Academic Way, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4520. E-mail: zwu@fsu.edu

Abstract

Many recent studies have shown that observed El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are spatially and temporally diverse and that they have undergone changes in characteristics. To quantitatively capture these features, multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) is employed to isolate the temporal–spatial evolution of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on naturally separated time scales. An alternative Niño-3.4 index is also defined to reflect more on the interannual variability of equatorial Pacific SSTAs. Using this alternative index, 27 ENSO warm events are identified and the spatial–temporal evolution of each event is examined. It is found that a patch of SSTAs off Baja California appears to extend southwestward and reach the equatorial region near the international date line in about 1 year. This warm signal then amplifies and extends eastward, developing into an ENSO warm event. This type of development has been dominant in recent decades. For this type of ENSO warm event, it appears that SSTAs off Baja California are instrumental to ENSO development, possibly serving as a precursor of an ENSO event.

Corresponding author address: Zhaohua Wu, Meteorology, Rm. 404 Love Bldg., The Florida State University, 1017 Academic Way, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4520. E-mail: zwu@fsu.edu
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