Winter Storm Conditions Leading to Excessive Runoff above California’s Oroville Dam during January and February 2017

Allen B. White NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Allen B. White in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Benjamin J. Moore NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division, and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Benjamin J. Moore in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Daniel J. Gottas NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Daniel J. Gottas in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Paul J. Neiman NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Paul J. Neiman in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

During winter 2016/17, California experienced numerous heavy precipitation events linked to land-falling atmospheric rivers (ARs) that filled reservoirs and ended a severe, multiyear drought. These events also caused floods, mudslides, and debris flows, resulting in major socioeconomic disruptions. During 2–11 February 2017, persistent heavy precipitation in the northern Sierra Nevada culminated in a rapid increase in the water level on Lake Oroville, necessitating the activation of an emergency spillway for the first time since the Oroville Dam was installed and forcing the evacuation of 188,000 people. The precipitation, which mostly fell as rain due to elevated freezing levels, was focused on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada in connection with orographic forcing linked to two successive ARs. Heavy rain fell on saturated soils and a snowpack produced by antecedent storms and thereby resulted in excessive runoff into Lake Oroville that led to a damaged spillway and complicated reservoir operations.

© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Dr. Allen B. White, allen.b.white@noaa.gov

A supplement to this article is available online (10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0091.2)

Abstract

During winter 2016/17, California experienced numerous heavy precipitation events linked to land-falling atmospheric rivers (ARs) that filled reservoirs and ended a severe, multiyear drought. These events also caused floods, mudslides, and debris flows, resulting in major socioeconomic disruptions. During 2–11 February 2017, persistent heavy precipitation in the northern Sierra Nevada culminated in a rapid increase in the water level on Lake Oroville, necessitating the activation of an emergency spillway for the first time since the Oroville Dam was installed and forcing the evacuation of 188,000 people. The precipitation, which mostly fell as rain due to elevated freezing levels, was focused on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada in connection with orographic forcing linked to two successive ARs. Heavy rain fell on saturated soils and a snowpack produced by antecedent storms and thereby resulted in excessive runoff into Lake Oroville that led to a damaged spillway and complicated reservoir operations.

© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Dr. Allen B. White, allen.b.white@noaa.gov

A supplement to this article is available online (10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0091.2)

Supplementary Materials

    • Supplemental Materials (PDF 8.16 KB)
Save
  • American Meteorological Society, 2018: Atmospheric river. Glossary of Meteorology, http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Atmospheric_river.

  • Arsenault, K., 2017: Recent storms in California wreak havoc on infrastructure. Emergency and Disaster Management Digest, 27 February 2017, https://edmdigest.com/news/California-storms-wreak-havoc/.

  • Benjamin, S. G., and Coauthors, 2016: A North American hourly assimilation and model forecast cycle: The Rapid Refresh. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 16691694, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0242.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bosart, L. F., B. J. Moore, J. M. Cordeira, and H. M. Archambault, 2017: Interactions of North Pacific tropical, midlatitude, and polar disturbances resulting in linked extreme weather events over North America in October 2007. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 12451273, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0230.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Boxall, B., 2017: Gov. Brown declares drought emergency is over. LA Times, 7 April 2017, www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-brown-drought-20170407-story.html.

  • Carter, D. A., K. S. Gage, W. L. Ecklund, W. M. Angevine, P. E. Johnston, A. C. Riddle, J. Wilson, and C. R. Williams, 1995: Developments in UHF lower tropospheric wind profiling at NOAA’s Aeronomy Laboratory. Radio Sci ., 30, 9771001, https://doi.org/10.1029/95RS00649.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cayan, D. R., K. T. Redmond, and L. G. Riddle, 1999: ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the western United States. J. Climate, 12, 28812893, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2881:EAHEIT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Daly, C., R. P. Neilson, and D. L. Phillips, 1994: A statistical–topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. J. Appl. Meteor., 33, 140158, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dettinger, M. D., D. R. Cayan, H. F. Diaz, and D. M. Meko, 1998: North–south precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales. J. Climate, 11, 30953111, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<3095:NSPPIW>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Funk, C., A. Hoell, and D. Stone, 2014: Examining the contribution of the observed global warming trend to the California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S11S15.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Griffin, D., and K. J. Anchukaitis, 2014: How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought? Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 90179023, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062433.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gutman, S. I., S. R. Sahm, S. G. Benjamin, B. E. Schwartz, K. L. Holub, J. Q. Stewart, and T. L. Smith, 2004: Rapid retrieval and assimilation of ground based GPS precipitable water observations at the NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory: Impact on weather forecasts. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 351360, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2004.351.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Johnston, P. E., J. R. Jordan, A. B. White, D. A. Carter, D. M. Costa, and T. E. Ayers, 2017: The NOAA FM-CW snow-level radar. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 34, 249267, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0063.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Koczot, K. M., A. E. Jeton, B. J. McGurk, and M. D. Dettinger, 2005: Precipitation-runoff processes in the Feather River basin, northeastern California, with prospects for streamflow predictability, water years 1971–97. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Rep. 2004-5202, 82 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Minder, J. R., D. R. Durran, and G. H. Roe, 2011: Mesoscale controls on the mountainside snow line. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 21072127, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-10-05006.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Moore, B. J., P. J. Neiman, F. M. Ralph, and F. Barthold, 2012: Physical processes associated with heavy flooding rainfall in Nashville, Tennessee, and vicinity during 1–2 May 2010: The role of an atmospheric river and mesoscale convective systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 358378, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00126.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neiman, P. J., F. M. Ralph, G. A. Wick, J. D. Lundquist, and M. D. Dettinger, 2008: Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the west coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations. J. Hydrometeor., 9, 2247, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM855.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neiman, P. J., A. B. White, F. M. Ralph, D. J. Gottas, and S. I. Gutman, 2009: A water vapour flux tool for precipitation forecasting. Water Manage ., 162, 8394, https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.2009.162.2.83.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neiman, P. J., E. M. Sukovich, F. M. Ralph, and M. Hughes, 2010: A seven-year wind profiler–based climatology of the windward barrier jet along California’s northern Sierra Nevada. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 12061233, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3170.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neiman, P. J., M. Hughes, B. J. Moore, F. M. Ralph, and E. M. Sukovich, 2013: Sierra barrier jets, atmospheric rivers, and precipitation characteristics in northern California: A composite perspective based on a network of wind profilers. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 42114233, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00112.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neiman, P. J., F. M. Ralph, B. J. Moore, and R. J. Zamora, 2014: The regional influence of an intense Sierra barrier jet and landfalling atmospheric river on orographic precipitation in northern California: A case study. J. Hydrometeor., 15, 14191439, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0183.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neiman, P. J., B. J. Moore, A. B. White, G. A. Wick, J. Aikins, D. L. Jackson, J. R. Spackman, and F. M. Ralph, 2016: An airborne and ground-based study of a long-lived and intense atmospheric river with mesoscale frontal waves impacting California during CalWater-2014. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 11151144, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0319.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ralph, F. M., P. J. Neiman, and G. A. Wick, 2004: Satellite and CALJET aircraft observations of atmospheric rivers over the eastern North Pacific Ocean during the winter of 1997/98. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 17211745, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1721:SACAOO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ralph, F. M., P. J. Neiman, G. N. Kiladis, K. Weickmann, and D. M. Reynolds, 2011: A multiscale observational case study of a Pacific atmospheric river exhibiting tropical–extratropical connections and a mesoscale frontal wave. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 11691189, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3596.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Redmond, K. T., and R. W. Koch, 1991: Surface climate and streamflow variability in the western United States and their relationship to large-scale circulation indices. Water Resour. Res., 27, 23812399, https://doi.org/10.1029/91WR00690.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 10151057, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2014: The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. J. Climate, 27, 21852208, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sodemann, H., and A. Stohl, 2013: Moisture origin and meridional transport in atmospheric rivers and their association with multiple cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 28502868, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00256.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Soil Survey Staff, 2018: Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database. Natural Resources Conservation Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, accessed 31 July 2018, https://sdmdataaccess.sc.egov.usda.gov.

  • White, A. B., D. J. Gottas, E. T. Strem, F. M. Ralph, and P. J. Neiman, 2002: An automated brightband height detection algorithm for use with Doppler radar spectral moments. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 19, 687697, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2002)019<0687:AABHDA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • White, A. B., D. J. Gottas, A. F. Henkel, P. J. Neiman, F. M. Ralph, and S. I. Gutman, 2010: Developing a performance measure for snow-level forecasts. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 739753, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JHM1181.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • White, A. B., and Coauthors, 2013: A twenty-first-century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 30, 15851603, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00217.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • White, A. B., P. J. Neiman, J. M. Creamean, T. Coleman, F. M. Ralph, and K. A. Prather, 2015: The impacts of California’s San Francisco Bay Area gap on precipitation observed in the Sierra Nevada during HMT and CalWater. J. Hydrometeor., 16, 10481069, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0160.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wick, G. A., P. J. Neiman, F. M. Ralph, and T. M. Hamill, 2013: Evaluation of forecasts of the water vapor signature of atmospheric rivers in operational numerical weather prediction models. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 13371352, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00025.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wolter, K., and M. S. Timlin, 1993: Monitoring ENSO in COADS with a seasonally adjusted principal component index. Proc. 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Norman, OK, NOAA/NMC/CAC–NSSL–Oklahoma Climatological Survey–CIMMS, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 52–57.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wolter, K., and M. S. Timlin, 1998: Measuring the strength of ENSO events: How does 1997/98 rank? Weather, 53, 315324, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06408.x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zamora, R. J., F. M. Ralph, E. Clark, and T. Schneider, 2011: The NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed soil moisture observing networks: Design, instrumentation, and preliminary results. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 28, 11291140, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JTECHA1465.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 8130 3054 235
PDF Downloads 1290 136 16