Is Precipitation a Good Metric for Model Performance?

Francisco J. Tapiador Earth and Space Sciences Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Castilla–La Mancha, Toledo, Spain

Search for other papers by Francisco J. Tapiador in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Rémy Roca Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse, France

Search for other papers by Rémy Roca in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Anthony Del Genio NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York

Search for other papers by Anthony Del Genio in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Boris Dewitte Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse, France, and Centro de Estudios Avanzado en Zonas Áridas, and Departamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo, Chile

Search for other papers by Boris Dewitte in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Walt Petersen ST-11, Earth Science Office, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, and National Space Science and Technology Center, Huntsville, Alabama

Search for other papers by Walt Petersen in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Fuqing Zhang Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, and Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania

Search for other papers by Fuqing Zhang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

Precipitation has often been used to gauge the performances of numerical weather and climate models, sometimes together with other variables such as temperature, humidity, geopotential, and clouds. Precipitation, however, is singular in that it can present a high spatial variability and probably the sharpest gradients among all meteorological fields. Moreover, its quantitative measurement is plagued with difficulties, and there are even notable differences among different reference datasets. Several additional issues sometimes lead to questions about its usefulness in model validation. This essay discusses the use of precipitation for model verification and validation and the crucial role of highly precise and reliable satellite estimates, such as those from NASA’s Global Precipitation Mission Core Observatory.

© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Francisco J. Tapiador, francisco.tapiador@uclm.es

Abstract

Precipitation has often been used to gauge the performances of numerical weather and climate models, sometimes together with other variables such as temperature, humidity, geopotential, and clouds. Precipitation, however, is singular in that it can present a high spatial variability and probably the sharpest gradients among all meteorological fields. Moreover, its quantitative measurement is plagued with difficulties, and there are even notable differences among different reference datasets. Several additional issues sometimes lead to questions about its usefulness in model validation. This essay discusses the use of precipitation for model verification and validation and the crucial role of highly precise and reliable satellite estimates, such as those from NASA’s Global Precipitation Mission Core Observatory.

© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Francisco J. Tapiador, francisco.tapiador@uclm.es
Save
  • Adler, R., G. Gu, M. Sapiano, J. Wang, and G. Huffman, 2017: Global precipitation: Means, variations and trends during the satellite era (1979–2014). Surv. Geophys., 38, 679699, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-017-9416-4.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Allan, R. P., B. J. Soden, V. O. John, W. Ingram, and P. Good, 2010: Current changes in tropical precipitation. Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 025205, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bei, N., and F. Zhang, 2014: Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Variable and scale dependent error growth. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 31, 9951008, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-3191-7.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Belmadani, A., V. Echevin, F. Codron, K. Takahashi, and C. Junquas, 2014: What dynamics drive future wind scenarios for coastal upwelling off Peru and Chile? Climate Dyn ., 43, 18931914, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2015-2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bytheway, J. L., and C. D. Kummerow, 2018: Consistency between convection allowing model output and passive microwave satellite observations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123, 10651078, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027527.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cai, W., and Coauthors, 2014: Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nat. Climate Change, 4, 111116, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2100.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cai, W., G. Wang, A. Santoso, X. Lin, and L. Wu, 2017: Definition of extreme El Niño and its impact on projected increase in extreme El Niño frequency. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11 18411 190, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075635.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cesana, G., K. Suselj, and F. Brient, 2017: On the dependence of cloud feedbacks on physical parameterizations in WRF aquaplanet simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 10 76210 771, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074820.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chung, E. S., and Soden, B. J., 2017: Hemispheric climate shifts driven by anthropogenic aerosol-cloud interactions. Nature Geosci ., 10, 566571, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2988.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dai, A., F. Giorgi, and K. E. Trenberth, 1999: Observed and model simulated precipitation diurnal cycle over the contiguous United States. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 63776402, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JD02720.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • del Genio, A. D., 2012: Representing the sensitivity of convective cloud systems to tropospheric humidity in general circulation models. Surv. Geophys., 33, 637656, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9148-9.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • del Genio, A. D., J. Wu, A. B. Wolf, Y. Chen, M. Yao, and D. Kim, 2015: Constraints on cumulus parameterization from simulations of observed MJO events. J. Climate, 28, 64196442, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00832.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Guilloteau, C., E. Foufoula-Georgiou, and C. D. Kummerow, 2017: Global multiscale evaluation of satellite passive microwave retrieval of precipitation during the TRMM and GPM eras: Effective resolution and regional diagnostics for future algorithm development. J. Hydrometeor., 18, 30513070, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0087.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hourdin, F., and Coauthors, 2017: The art and science of climate model tuning. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 589602, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 1535 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Jauregui, Y. R., and K. Takahashi, 2018: Simple physical-empirical model of the precipitation distribution based on a tropical sea surface temperature threshold and the effects of climate change. Climate Dyn ., 50, 22172237, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3745-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kendon, E. J., and Coauthors, 2017: Do convection-permitting regional climate models improve projections of future precipitation change? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 7993, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-0004.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kidd, C., A. Becker, G. J. Huffman, C. L. Muller, P. Joe, G. Skofronick-Jackson, and D. B. Kirschbaum, 2017: So, how much of the Earth’s surface is covered by rain gauges? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 6978, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00283.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kikuchi, K., and B. Wang, 2008: Diurnal precipitation regimes in the global tropics. J. Climate, 21, 26802696, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2051.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • L’Ecuyer, T. S., and Coauthors, 2015: The observed state of the energy budget in the early twenty-first century. J. Climate, 28, 83198346, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00556.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, G., and S.-P. Xie, 2014: Tropical biases in CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: The excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double ITCZ problems. J. Climate, 27, 17651780, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00337.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ling, J., and C. Zhang, 2011: Structural evolution in heating profiles of the MJO in global reanalyses and TRMM retrievals. J. Climate, 24, 825842, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3826.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, C., and E. J. Zipser, 2005: Global distribution of convection penetrating the tropical tropopause. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D23104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006063.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, C., and E. J. Zipser, 2013: Regional variation of morphology of the organized convection in the tropics and subtropics, Part I: regional variation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 453466, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018409.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Madden, R. E., and P. R. Julian, 1994: Observations of the 40–50 day tropical oscillation—A review. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 814837, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0814:OOTDTO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2018: Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space. National Academies Press, 700 pp., https://doi.org/10.17226/24938.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Palmén, E. H., 1948: On the formation and structure of tropical hurricanes. Geophysica, 3, 2639.

  • Popp, M., and N. J. Lutsko, 2017: Quantifying the zonal-mean structure of tropical precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 94709478, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075235.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Power, S., F. Delage, C. Chung, G. Kociuba, and K. Keay, 2013: Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability. Nature, 502, 541545, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12580.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Roca, R., J. Aublanc, P. Chambon, T. Fiolleau, and N. Viltard, 2014: Robust observational quantification of the contribution of mesoscale convective systems to rainfall in the tropics. J. Climate, 27, 49524958, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00628.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rossow, W. B., A. Mekonnen, C. Pearl, and W. Goncalves, 2013: Tropical precipitation extremes. J. Climate, 26, 14571466, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00725.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schmidt, G. A., and Coauthors, 2017: Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six U.S. modeling centers. Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 32073223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3207-2017.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schumacher, C., R. A. Houze, and I. Kraucunas, 2004: The tropical dynamical response to latent heating estimates derived from the TRMM Precipitation Radar. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 13411358, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<1341:TTDRTL>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shipway, B. J., and A. A. Hill, 2012: Diagnosis of systematic differences between multiple parametrizations of warm rain microphysics using a kinematic framework. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 21962211, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1913.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sieron, S. B., E. E. Clothiaux, F. Zhang, Y. Lu, and J. A. Otkin, 2017: Comparison of using distribution-specific versus effective radius methods for hydrometeor single-scattering properties for all-sky microwave satellite radiance simulations with different microphysics parameterization schemes. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 70277046, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026494.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sieron, S. B., F. Zhang, E. E. Clothiaux, L. N. Zhang, and Y. Lu, 2018: Representing precipitation ice species with both spherical and non-spherical particles for microphysics-consistent cloud microwave scattering properties. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 10, 10111028, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001226.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Skofronick-Jackson, G., and Coauthors, 2017: The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission for science and society. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 16791695, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00306.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stephens, G. L., and T. D. Ellis, 2008: Controls of global-mean precipitation increases in global warming GCM experiments. J. Climate, 21, 61416155, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2144.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stephens, G. L., and Coauthors, 2010: Dreary state of precipitation in global models. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D24211, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014532.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stephens, G. L., and Coauthors, 2012: An update on Earth’s energy balance in light of the latest global observations. Nat. Geosci., 5, 691696, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1580.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Takahashi, K., and B. Dewitte, 2016: Strong and moderate nonlinear El Niño regimes. Climate Dyn ., 46, 16271645, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2665-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tan, I., T. Storelvmo, and M. D. Zelinka, 2016: Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity. Science, 352, 224227, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad5300.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tan, J., C. Jakob, W. B. Rossow, and G. Tselioudis, 2015: Increases in tropical rainfall driven by changes in frequency of organized deep convection. Nature, 519, 451454, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14339.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tao, W.-K., and X. Li, 2016: The relationship between latent heating, vertical velocity, and precipitation processes: The impact of aerosols on precipitation in organized deep convective systems. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 62996320, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024267.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tapiador, F. J., M. A. Gaertner, R. Romera, and M. Castro, 2007: A multisource analysis of Hurricane Vince. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 10271032, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-7-1027.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tapiador, F. J., A. Behrangi, Z. S. Haddad, D. Katsanos, and M. de Castro, 2016: Disruptions in precipitation cycles: Attribution to anthropogenic forcing. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 21612177, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023406.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tapiador, F. J., J. L. Sánchez, and E. García-Ortega, 2018: Empirical values and assumptions in the microphysics of numerical models. Atmos. Res., 215, 214238, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.09.010.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, S., A. H. Sobel, F. Zhang, Y. Qiang Sun, Y. Yue, and L. Zhou, 2015: Regional simulation of the October and November MJO events observed during the CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign at gray zone resolution. J. Climate, 28, 20972119, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00294.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yin, J., and A. Porporato, 2017: Diurnal cloud cycle biases in climate models. Nat. Commun., 8, 2269, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02369-4.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zerroukat, M., and B. J. Shipway, 2017: ZLF (Zero Lateral Flux): A simple mass conservation method for semi-Lagrangian-based limited-area models. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 25782584, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3108.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, F., C. Snyder, and R. Rotunno, 2003: Effects of moist convection on mesoscale predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 11731185, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<1173:EOMCOM>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, F., N. Bei, R. Rotunno, C. Snyder, and C. C. Epifanio, 2007: Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Cloud-resolving experiments and multistage error growth dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 35793594, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS4028.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, F., W. Li, and M. E. Mann, 2016: Scale-dependent regional climate predictability over North America inferred from CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensemble simulations. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 33, 905918, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-6013-2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 10315 9007 198
PDF Downloads 1915 339 27