Abstract
Up to 1,000 drowning deaths occur every year on Lake Victoria in East Africa. Nocturnal thunderstorms are one of the main culprits for the high winds and waves that cause fishing boats to capsize. The High Impact Weather Lake System (HIGHWAY) project was established to develop an Early Warning System for Lake Victoria. Prior to HIGHWAY, weather forecasts for the lake were overly general and not trusted. Under the HIGHWAY project, forecasters from weather service offices in East Africa worked with leaders of fishing communities and Beach Management Units to develop marine forecasts and hazardous-weather warnings that were meaningful to fishermen and other stakeholders. Forecasters used high-resolution satellite, radar, and lightning observations collected during a HIGHWAY field campaign, along with guidance from numerical weather prediction models and a 4.4-km resolution Tropical Africa model, to produce specific forecasts and warnings for 10 zones over the lake. Forecasts were communicated to thousands of people by radio broadcasters, local intermediaries, and via smartphones using the WhatsApp application. Fishermen, ferry-boat operators, and lakeside communities used the new marine forecasts to plan their daytime and nighttime activities on the lake. A socioeconomic benefits study conducted by HIGHWAY found that ∼75% of the people are now using the forecasts to decide if and when to travel on the lake. Significantly, a 30% reduction in drowning fatalities on the lake is likely to have occurred, which, when combined with the reduction in other weather-related losses, generates estimated socioeconomic benefits of $44 million per year due to the HIGHWAY project activities; the new marine forecasts and warnings are helping to save lives and property.
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