A Study in Objective Forecasting

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  • 1 Geophysical Research Division, Air Materiel Command, 230 Albany St., Cambridge 39, Mass.
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Meteorological parameters can be divided into predictors and predictands, with the former being used to predict the latter. This report describes a project in which some 20 predictors were used to predict fog and stratus at Randolph Field, Texas, in competition with usual methods of the regular weather station there. The results yielded an overall increase in forecasting accuracy and skill by the objective system. But the most important feature of the objective system is that it enables one to state the probability of occurrence of each event.

Meteorological parameters can be divided into predictors and predictands, with the former being used to predict the latter. This report describes a project in which some 20 predictors were used to predict fog and stratus at Randolph Field, Texas, in competition with usual methods of the regular weather station there. The results yielded an overall increase in forecasting accuracy and skill by the objective system. But the most important feature of the objective system is that it enables one to state the probability of occurrence of each event.

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