the National Meteorological Center's performance in the forecasting of a winter storm, 19–20 February 1972

Harry E. Brown National Meteorological Center, National Weather Service, NOAA, Suitland, Md. 20233

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Russell J. Younkin National Meteorological Center, National Weather Service, NOAA, Suitland, Md. 20233

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The worst east coast storm of 1971–72 developed very rapidly and reached maturity at extreme southerly latitudes. To a large degree, the development was forecast more than two days in advance by use of the National Meteorological Center 6-layer primitive equation (P.E.) model. However, the P.E. prognosis contained systematic errors. Most were eliminated by the limited area fine mesh model (LFM) and NMC forecasters. NMC's total performance with the storm was nearly the best possible with the current state-of-the-art. The successful forecast of cyclogenesis led to equally successful forecasts of precipitation quantities, heavy snow, and storm surges, among other things. Examples are presented.

The worst east coast storm of 1971–72 developed very rapidly and reached maturity at extreme southerly latitudes. To a large degree, the development was forecast more than two days in advance by use of the National Meteorological Center 6-layer primitive equation (P.E.) model. However, the P.E. prognosis contained systematic errors. Most were eliminated by the limited area fine mesh model (LFM) and NMC forecasters. NMC's total performance with the storm was nearly the best possible with the current state-of-the-art. The successful forecast of cyclogenesis led to equally successful forecasts of precipitation quantities, heavy snow, and storm surges, among other things. Examples are presented.

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