Further Outlook—Hazy

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  • 1 Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822
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The authoritative view has not changed that weather forecasts will soon improve significantly. However, 1976 provided no supporting evidence, and the American Meteorological Society's policy statements suggest, if anything, a deterioration from 1957 to 1976.

Modest improvement might stem only from forecast services designed to fit local conditions and priorities, emphasizing early detection and warning and operated by local agencies. To test this concept, I propose pilot projects in three different regions where university departments of meteorology, with support from industrial meteorologists, would provide local forecasts and operate the weather observing network. They would depend for background information on the National Meteorological Center, which would disseminate large-scale numerical analyses, forecasts, and expected error distributions.

1 Text of a talk given at the luncheon session of the AMS Third Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Omaha, Nebr., 27 April 1977. This paper is Contribution No. 77-4 of the Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii.

The authoritative view has not changed that weather forecasts will soon improve significantly. However, 1976 provided no supporting evidence, and the American Meteorological Society's policy statements suggest, if anything, a deterioration from 1957 to 1976.

Modest improvement might stem only from forecast services designed to fit local conditions and priorities, emphasizing early detection and warning and operated by local agencies. To test this concept, I propose pilot projects in three different regions where university departments of meteorology, with support from industrial meteorologists, would provide local forecasts and operate the weather observing network. They would depend for background information on the National Meteorological Center, which would disseminate large-scale numerical analyses, forecasts, and expected error distributions.

1 Text of a talk given at the luncheon session of the AMS Third Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Omaha, Nebr., 27 April 1977. This paper is Contribution No. 77-4 of the Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii.

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