Applications of Tropical Cyclone Models

Russell L. Elsberry Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, Calif. 93940

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The extensive research in tropical cyclone modeling during the 1960s and 1970s has resulted in a number of applications for real-time track prediction. A review of the characteristics of these 3-dimensional dynamical models is given, including a discussion of procedures for initializing and tracking the model storm. Some limited verifications of track forecasts are described. An outlook for the future is presented; both in terms of numerical model improvements, and for large-scale and inner-scale data required to implement the improved models.

The extensive research in tropical cyclone modeling during the 1960s and 1970s has resulted in a number of applications for real-time track prediction. A review of the characteristics of these 3-dimensional dynamical models is given, including a discussion of procedures for initializing and tracking the model storm. Some limited verifications of track forecasts are described. An outlook for the future is presented; both in terms of numerical model improvements, and for large-scale and inner-scale data required to implement the improved models.

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