An Update on Trends in Skill of Daily Forecasts of Temperature and Precipitation at the State University of New York at Albany

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  • 1 Department of Atmospheric Science, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, N. Y. 12222
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Consensus (the average of all forecasts) skill levels in forecasting daily maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation probability across six class intervals, and precipitation amount at the State University of New York at Albany are reviewed for the period 1977–82. Skill is measured relative to a climatological control. Forecasts are made for four consecutive 24 h periods for Albany, N.Y., beginning at 1800 GMT of the current day.

For minimum temperature, the skill levels average 57%, 41%, 26%, and 15%, respectively, for 24, 48, 72, and 96 h in advance. For maximum temperature, a more limited sample yields corresponding skill levels of 84%, 49%, 34%, and 19% for 12, 36, 60, 84 h ahead. Linear regression analysis yields little in the way of a definitive trend, given the smallness of the explained variance. Comparison with other readily available objective and subjective operational guidance establishes the credibility of the consensus forecast.

1 Authors should submit manuscripts for this section directly to Dr. Robert W. Burpee, Editor, Focus on Forecasting, Hurricane Research Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, Gables One Tower, 1320 S. Dixie Highway, Coral Gables, Fla. 33146. Three copies of each manuscript (text and illustrations), prepared in accordance with “Information for Contributors” on the inside covers of a recent issue of an AMS research journal, are required.

Consensus (the average of all forecasts) skill levels in forecasting daily maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation probability across six class intervals, and precipitation amount at the State University of New York at Albany are reviewed for the period 1977–82. Skill is measured relative to a climatological control. Forecasts are made for four consecutive 24 h periods for Albany, N.Y., beginning at 1800 GMT of the current day.

For minimum temperature, the skill levels average 57%, 41%, 26%, and 15%, respectively, for 24, 48, 72, and 96 h in advance. For maximum temperature, a more limited sample yields corresponding skill levels of 84%, 49%, 34%, and 19% for 12, 36, 60, 84 h ahead. Linear regression analysis yields little in the way of a definitive trend, given the smallness of the explained variance. Comparison with other readily available objective and subjective operational guidance establishes the credibility of the consensus forecast.

1 Authors should submit manuscripts for this section directly to Dr. Robert W. Burpee, Editor, Focus on Forecasting, Hurricane Research Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, Gables One Tower, 1320 S. Dixie Highway, Coral Gables, Fla. 33146. Three copies of each manuscript (text and illustrations), prepared in accordance with “Information for Contributors” on the inside covers of a recent issue of an AMS research journal, are required.

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