Third COMPARE Workshop: A Model Intercomparison Experiment of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Track Prediction

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The Third Comparison of Mesoscale Prediction and Research Experiment (COMPARE) workshop was held in Tokyo, Japan, on 13–15 December 1999, cosponsored by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Japan Science and Technology Agency, and the World Meteorological Organization. The third case of COMPARE focuses on an event of explosive tropical cyclone [Typhoon Flo (9019)] development that occurred during the cooperative three field experiments, the Tropical Cyclone Motion experiment 1990, Special Experiment Concerning Recurvature and Unusual Motion, and TYPHOON-90, conducted in the western North Pacific in August and September 1990. Fourteen models from nine countries have participated in at least a part of a set of experiments using a combination of four initial conditions provided and three horizontal resolutions. The resultant forecasts were collected, processed, and verified with analyses and observational data at JMA. Archived datasets have been prepared to be distributed to participating members for use in further evaluation studies.

In the workshop, preliminary conclusions from the evaluation study were presented and discussed in the light of initiatives of the experiment and from the viewpoints of tropical cyclone experts. Initial conditions, depending on both large-scale analyses and vortex bogusing, have a large impact on tropical cyclone intensity predictions. Some models succeeded in predicting the explosive deepening of the target typhoon at least qualitatively in terms of the time evolution of central pressure. Horizontal grid spacing has a very large impact on tropical cyclone intensity prediction, while the impact of vertical resolution is less clear, with some models being very sensitive and others less so. The structure of and processes in the eyewall clouds with subsidence inside as well as boundary layer and moist physical processes are considered important in the explosive development of tropical cyclones. Follow-up research activities in this case were proposed to examine possible working hypotheses related to the explosive development.

New strategies for selection of future COMPARE cases were worked out, including seven suitability requirements to be met by candidate cases. The VORTEX95 case was withdrawn as a candidate, and two other possible cases were presented and discussed.

aJapan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan.

bUniversity of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.

cFrontier Research System for Global Change, Tokyo, Japan.

dNaval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California.

eUniversity of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.

fMeteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan.

gOffice of Naval Research, Arlington, Virginia.

hInstituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid, Spain.

iCity University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.

jMet Office, Bracknell, Berkshire, United Kingdom.

kRecherche en Prevision Numerique, Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada.

lNOAA/NCEP, Camp Springs, Maryland.

mGerman Weather Service, Offenbach, Germany.

nISAO/CNR, Bologna, Italy.

oCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Melbourne, Australia.

pNaval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Masashi Nagata, National Typhoon Center, Forecast Division, Forecast Department, Japan Meteorological Society, Ote-machi 1-3-4, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan. E-mail: mnagata@met.kishou.go.jp

The Third Comparison of Mesoscale Prediction and Research Experiment (COMPARE) workshop was held in Tokyo, Japan, on 13–15 December 1999, cosponsored by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Japan Science and Technology Agency, and the World Meteorological Organization. The third case of COMPARE focuses on an event of explosive tropical cyclone [Typhoon Flo (9019)] development that occurred during the cooperative three field experiments, the Tropical Cyclone Motion experiment 1990, Special Experiment Concerning Recurvature and Unusual Motion, and TYPHOON-90, conducted in the western North Pacific in August and September 1990. Fourteen models from nine countries have participated in at least a part of a set of experiments using a combination of four initial conditions provided and three horizontal resolutions. The resultant forecasts were collected, processed, and verified with analyses and observational data at JMA. Archived datasets have been prepared to be distributed to participating members for use in further evaluation studies.

In the workshop, preliminary conclusions from the evaluation study were presented and discussed in the light of initiatives of the experiment and from the viewpoints of tropical cyclone experts. Initial conditions, depending on both large-scale analyses and vortex bogusing, have a large impact on tropical cyclone intensity predictions. Some models succeeded in predicting the explosive deepening of the target typhoon at least qualitatively in terms of the time evolution of central pressure. Horizontal grid spacing has a very large impact on tropical cyclone intensity prediction, while the impact of vertical resolution is less clear, with some models being very sensitive and others less so. The structure of and processes in the eyewall clouds with subsidence inside as well as boundary layer and moist physical processes are considered important in the explosive development of tropical cyclones. Follow-up research activities in this case were proposed to examine possible working hypotheses related to the explosive development.

New strategies for selection of future COMPARE cases were worked out, including seven suitability requirements to be met by candidate cases. The VORTEX95 case was withdrawn as a candidate, and two other possible cases were presented and discussed.

aJapan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan.

bUniversity of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.

cFrontier Research System for Global Change, Tokyo, Japan.

dNaval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California.

eUniversity of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.

fMeteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan.

gOffice of Naval Research, Arlington, Virginia.

hInstituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid, Spain.

iCity University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.

jMet Office, Bracknell, Berkshire, United Kingdom.

kRecherche en Prevision Numerique, Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada.

lNOAA/NCEP, Camp Springs, Maryland.

mGerman Weather Service, Offenbach, Germany.

nISAO/CNR, Bologna, Italy.

oCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Melbourne, Australia.

pNaval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Masashi Nagata, National Typhoon Center, Forecast Division, Forecast Department, Japan Meteorological Society, Ote-machi 1-3-4, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan. E-mail: mnagata@met.kishou.go.jp
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