Demonstration of probabilistic hydrological and atmospheric simulation of flood events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE) is made by the Forecast Demonstration Project in connection with the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its focus lies in the end-to-end flood forecasting in a mountainous region such as the Alps and surrounding lower ranges. Its scope ranges from radar observations and atmospheric and hydrological modeling to the decision making by the civil protection agents. More than 30 atmospheric high-resolution deterministic and probabilistic models coupled to some seven hydrological models in various combinations provided real-time online information. This information was available for many different catchments across the Alps over a demonstration period of 6 months in summer/fall 2007. The Web-based exchange platform additionally contained nowcasting information from various operational services and feedback channels for the forecasters and end users. D-PHASE applications include objective model verification and intercomparison, the assessment of (subjective) end user feedback, and evaluation of the overall gain from the coupling of the various components in the end-to-end forecasting system.
Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), Zurich, Switzerland
University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
Météo-France, Toulouse, France
ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy
ARPAL CRMIPC, Genova, Italy
German Weather Service (DWD), Offenbach, Germany
University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Swiss Federal Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
DLR, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy
Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada
Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
University of Brescia, Italy
University Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France
ARPAV, Centro Meteorologico Teolo, Italy
AEMet, Madrid, Spain
ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Vienna, Austria
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
A supplement to this article is available online (10.1175/2009BAMS2776.2)
