The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Experiment: Scientific Basis, New Analysis Tools, and Some First Results

Michael T. Montgomery Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California

Search for other papers by Michael T. Montgomery in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Christopher Davis National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Christopher Davis in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Timothy Dunkerton Northwest Research Associates, Bellevue, Washington

Search for other papers by Timothy Dunkerton in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Zhuo Wang Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana—Champaign, Urbana, Illinois

Search for other papers by Zhuo Wang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Christopher Velden University of Wisconsin/CIMSS, Madison, Wisconsin

Search for other papers by Christopher Velden in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Ryan Torn Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

Search for other papers by Ryan Torn in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Sharanya J. Majumdar Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida

Search for other papers by Sharanya J. Majumdar in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Fuqing Zhang Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania

Search for other papers by Fuqing Zhang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Roger K. Smith Meteorological Institute, Ludwig-Maximilians University, Munich, Germany

Search for other papers by Roger K. Smith in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Lance Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

Search for other papers by Lance Bosart in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Michael M. Bell Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California

Search for other papers by Michael M. Bell in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Jennifer S. Haase Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana

Search for other papers by Jennifer S. Haase in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Andrew Heymsfield National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Andrew Heymsfield in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Jorgen Jensen National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Jorgen Jensen in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Teresa Campos National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Teresa Campos in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Mark A. Boothe Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California

Search for other papers by Mark A. Boothe in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

We are aware of a technical issue preventing figures and tables from showing in some newly published articles in the full-text HTML view.
While we are resolving the problem, please use the online PDF version of these articles to view figures and tables.

The principal hypotheses of a new model of tropical cyclogenesis, known as the marsupial paradigm, were tested in the context of Atlantic tropical disturbances during the National Science Foundation (NSF)-sponsored Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) experiment in 2010. PREDICT was part of a tri-agency collaboration, along with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (NASA GRIP) experiment and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Intensity Forecasting Experiment (NOAA IFEX), intended to examine both developing and nondeveloping tropical disturbances.

During PREDICT, a total of 26 missions were flown with the NSF/NCAR Gulfstream V (GV) aircraft sampling eight tropical disturbances. Among these were four cases (Fiona, ex-Gaston, Karl, and Matthew) for which three or more missions were conducted, many on consecutive days. Because of the scientific focus on the Lagrangian nature of the tropical cyclogenesis process, a wave-relative frame of reference was adopted throughout the experiment in which various model- and satellite-based products were examined to guide aircraft planning and real-time operations. Here, the scientific products and examples of data collected are highlighted for several of the disturbances. The suite of cases observed represents arguably the most comprehensive, self-consistent dataset ever collected on the environment and mesoscale structure of developing and nondeveloping predepression disturbances.

The principal hypotheses of a new model of tropical cyclogenesis, known as the marsupial paradigm, were tested in the context of Atlantic tropical disturbances during the National Science Foundation (NSF)-sponsored Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) experiment in 2010. PREDICT was part of a tri-agency collaboration, along with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (NASA GRIP) experiment and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Intensity Forecasting Experiment (NOAA IFEX), intended to examine both developing and nondeveloping tropical disturbances.

During PREDICT, a total of 26 missions were flown with the NSF/NCAR Gulfstream V (GV) aircraft sampling eight tropical disturbances. Among these were four cases (Fiona, ex-Gaston, Karl, and Matthew) for which three or more missions were conducted, many on consecutive days. Because of the scientific focus on the Lagrangian nature of the tropical cyclogenesis process, a wave-relative frame of reference was adopted throughout the experiment in which various model- and satellite-based products were examined to guide aircraft planning and real-time operations. Here, the scientific products and examples of data collected are highlighted for several of the disturbances. The suite of cases observed represents arguably the most comprehensive, self-consistent dataset ever collected on the environment and mesoscale structure of developing and nondeveloping predepression disturbances.

Save