• Albers, S. C., 1995: The LAPS wind analysis. Wea. Forecasting, 10, 342352.

  • Albers, S. C., J. A. McGinley, D. L. Birkenheuer, and J. R. Smart, 1996: The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS): Analyses of clouds, precipitation, and temperature. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 273287.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ancell, B., C. F. Mass, and G. J. Hakim, 2011: Evaluation of surface analyses and forecasts with a multiscale ensemble Kalman filter in regions of complex terrain. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 20082024.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Baars, J., and C. Mass, 2005: Performance of National Weather Service forecasts compared to operational, consensus, and weighted model output statistics. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 10341047.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barclay, P. A., and K. E. Wilk, 1970: Severe thunderstorm radar echo motion and related weather events hazardous to aviation operations. ESSA Tech. Memo. ERLTM-NSSL 46, 63 pp. [Available from National Information Service, Operations Division, Springfield, VA 22161.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Battan, L. J., 1973: Radar Observations of the Atmosphere. University of Chicago Press, 324 pp.

  • Benjamin, S. G., K. A. Brewster, R. L. Brümmer, B. F. Jewett, T. W. Schlatter, T. L. Smith, and P. A. Stamus, 1991: An isentropic three-hourly data assimilation system using ACARS aircraft observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 888906.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Benjamin, S. G., and Coauthors, 2004: An hourly assimilation–forecast cycle: The RUC. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 495518.

  • Browning, K. A., 1982: Nowcasting. Academic Press, 256 pp.

  • Browning, K. A., and C. G. Collier, 1989: Nowcasting of precipitation systems. Rev. Geophys., 27, 345370.

  • Browning, K. A., C. G. Collier, P. R. Larke, P. Menmuir, G. A. Monk, and R. G. Owens, 1982: On the forecasting of frontal rain using a weather radar network. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 534552.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Coniglio, M. C., K. L. Elmore, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, and M. L. Weisman, 2010: Evaluation of WRF model output for severe weather forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed spring experiment. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 408427.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Derber, J. C., D. F. Parrish, and S. J. Lord, 1991: The new global operational analysis system at the National Meteorological Center. Wea. Forecasting, 6, 538547.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dixon, M., and G. Wiener, 1993: TITAN: Thunderstorm identification, tracking, analysis, and nowcasting—A radar-based methodology. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 10, 785797.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Golding, B. W., 1998: Nimrod: A system for generating automated very short range forecasts. Meteor. Appl., 5, 116.

  • Golding, B. W., 2000: Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the UK. J. Hydrol., 239, 286305.

  • Kain, J. S., P. R. Janish, S. J. Weiss, R. S. Schneider, M. E. Baldwin, and H. E. Brooks, 2003: Collaboration between forecasters and research scientists at the NSSL and SPC: The spring program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 17971806.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kain, J. S., and Coauthors, 2010: Assessing advances in the assimilation of radar data and other mesoscale observations within a collaborative forecasting–research environment. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 15101521.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Koskinen, J. T., and Coauthors, 2011: The Helsinki testbed: A mesoscale measurement, research, and service platform. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 32, 325342.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lakshmanan, V., T. Smith, G. Stumpf, and K. Hondl, 2007: The Warning Decision Support System–Integrated Information. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 596612.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, Y., and Coauthors, 2008: The operational mesogamma-scale analysis and forecast system of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part I: Overview of the modeling system, the forecast products, and how the products are used. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, 10771092.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, Y., and Coauthors, 2011: Analysis and forecasting over complex terrain with the NCAR 4D-REKF data assimilation and forecasting system. Extended Abstracts, 14th Conf. on Mesoscale Processes, Los Angeles, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3.6. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/14Meso15ARAM/techprogram/paper_191274.htm.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lushine, J. B., 1976: Convective growth and movement as seen from GOES-1. Mon. Wea. Rev., 104,14491450.

  • MacDonald, A. E., Y. Xie, and R. H. Ware, 2002: Diagnosis of three-dimensional water vapor using a GPS network. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 386397.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mecikalski, J. R., and Coauthors, 2007: Aviation applications for satellite-based observations of cloud properties, convective initiation, in-flight icing, turbulence, and volcanic ash. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 15891607.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mecikalski, J. R., K. M. Bedka, S. J. Paech, and L. A. Litten, 2008: A statistical evaluation of GOES cloud-top properties for nowcasting convective initiation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 48994914.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Moninger, W. R., S. G. Benjamin, B. D. Jamison, T. W. Schlatter, T. L. Smith, and E. J. Szoke, 2010: Evaluation of regional aircraft observations using TAMDAR. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 627645.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mueller, C., T. Saxen, R. Roberts, J. Wilson, T. Betancourt, S. Dettling, N. Oien, and J. Yee, 2003: NCAR Auto-Nowcast System. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 545561.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • National Research Council, 2009: Observing the Weather and Climate from the Ground Up. National Academy Press, 234 pp.

  • Noel, T. M., and A. Fleisher, 1960: The linear predictability of weather radar signals. MIT Dept. of Meteorology Research Rep. 34, 46 pp. [Available from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02139.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pierce, C. E., P. J. Hardaker, C. G. Collier, and C. M. Haggett, 2000: GANDOLF, a system for generating automated nowcasts of convective precipitation. Meteor. Appl., 7, 341360.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Purdom, J., 1976: Some uses of high-resolution GOES imagery in the mesoscale forecasting of convection and its behavior. Mon. Wea. Rev., 104, 14741483.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rabier, F., H. Järvinen, E. Klinker, J.-F. Mahfouf, and A. Simmons, 2000: The ECMWF operational implementation of four-dimensional variational assimilation. I: Experimental results with simplified physics. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 11431170.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rothfusz, L. P., M. R. McLaughlin, and S. K. Rinard, 1998: An overview of NWS weather support for the XXVI Olympiad. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 845860.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schroeder, A. J., D. R. Stauffer, N. L. Seaman, A. Deng, A. M. Gibbs, G. K. Hunter, and G. S. Young, 2006: An automated high-resolution, rapidly relocatable meteorological nowcasting and prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 12371265.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Scofield, R. A., 1987: The NESDIS operational convective precipitation estimation technique. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 17731793.

  • Scofield, R. A., and C. C. Weiss, 1977: A report on the Chesapeake Bay region nowcasting experiment. NOAA Tech. Memo. NESS 94, 52 pp.

  • Skamarock, W. C., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, W. Wang, and J. G. Powers, 2007: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 2. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-468+STR, 88 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, M., 2010: Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather. Greenleaf Book Group Press, 304 pp.

  • Smith, T. L., S. G. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, S. Weygandt, T. Smirnova, and B. Schwartz, 2008: Convection forecasts from the hourly updated, 3-km high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model. Preprints, 24th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Savannah, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 11.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, W. L., V. E. Suomi, F. X. Zhou, and W. P. Menzel, 1982: Nowcasting applications of geostationary satellite atmospheric sounding data. Nowcasting, K. Browning, Ed., Academic Press, 123135.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stensrud, D. J., and Coauthors, 2009: Convective-scale warn-on-forecast system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 14871499.

  • Torn, R. D., and G. J. Hakim, 2008: Performance characteristics of a pseudo-operational ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 39473963.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, D. H., M. Xue, V. Wong, and K. Droegemeier, 1996: Predictions and simulations of convective storms during VORTEX95. Preprints, 11th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 301303.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wilk, K. E., and K. C. Gray, 1970: Processing and analysis techniques used with the NSSL weather radar system. Preprints, 14th Conf. on Radar Meteorology, Tucson, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 369374.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wilson, J. W., 1966: Movement and predictability of radar echoes. National Severe Storms Laboratory Tech. Memo ERTM-NSSL-28, 30 pp. [Available from National Information Service, Operations Division, Springfield, VA 22161.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wilson, J. W., and K. E. Wilk, 1982: Nowcasting applications of Doppler radar. Nowcasting, K. Browning, Ed., Academic Press, London, 87105.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wilson, J. W., Y. Feng, M. Chen, and R. D. Roberts, 2010: Nowcasting challenges during the Beijing Olympics: Successes, failures, and implications for future nowcasting systems. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 16911714.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xue, M., D.-H. Wang, J.-D. Gao, K. Brewster, and K. K. Droegemeier, 2003: The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) storm-scale numerical weather prediction and data assimilation. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 82, 139170.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, F., Y. Weng, J. A. Sippel, Z. Meng, and C. H. Bishop, 2009: Cloud-resolving hurricane initialization and prediction through assimilation of Doppler radar observations with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 21052125.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 16 16 16
PDF Downloads 10 10 10

Nowcasting: The Promise of New Technologies of Communication, Modeling, and Observation

View More View Less
  • 1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
Restricted access

Nowcasting combines a description of the current state of the atmosphere and a short-term forecast of how the atmosphere will evolve during the next several hours. A convergence of technical developments has set the stage for a major jump in nowcasting capabilities and the ability to apply those advances to important societal needs. New communications technologies, including broadband Internet, wireless communication, social media, and smartphones, have made the distribution and application of real-time weather information possible nearly anywhere. Rapid increases in the quantity and quality of surface, aircraft, and remote-sensing data now provide a real-time description of atmospheric conditions from the global to regional scales. Improved modeling and data assimilation offer the potential to more effectively apply mesoscale observations and to produce highresolution analyses and forecasts. Finally, improvements in communication, computation, and control have provided society with the ability to effectively access and use nowcasting information for the protection of life and property, as well as facilitating commerce and recreation. This paper describes these individual advances, the synergies of their combination, and how the forecast process might change as a result during the next few decades.

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Professor Clifford F. Mass, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Box 351640, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, E-mail: cliff@atmos.washington.edu

Nowcasting combines a description of the current state of the atmosphere and a short-term forecast of how the atmosphere will evolve during the next several hours. A convergence of technical developments has set the stage for a major jump in nowcasting capabilities and the ability to apply those advances to important societal needs. New communications technologies, including broadband Internet, wireless communication, social media, and smartphones, have made the distribution and application of real-time weather information possible nearly anywhere. Rapid increases in the quantity and quality of surface, aircraft, and remote-sensing data now provide a real-time description of atmospheric conditions from the global to regional scales. Improved modeling and data assimilation offer the potential to more effectively apply mesoscale observations and to produce highresolution analyses and forecasts. Finally, improvements in communication, computation, and control have provided society with the ability to effectively access and use nowcasting information for the protection of life and property, as well as facilitating commerce and recreation. This paper describes these individual advances, the synergies of their combination, and how the forecast process might change as a result during the next few decades.

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Professor Clifford F. Mass, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Box 351640, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, E-mail: cliff@atmos.washington.edu
Save