• Anthony, K. E., , K. Cowden, , H. D. O'Hair & , and G. M. Eosco, 2012: The hurricane forecast and warning system: Boundary spanning and inter-organizational struggles. Preprints, 28th Conf. on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS), New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7A.7. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/92Annual/webprogram/Paper202134.html.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bier, V. M., 2001: On the state of the art: Risk communication to the public. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 71, 139150.

  • Broad, K., , T. Leiserowitz, , J. Weinkle & , and M. Steketee, 2007: Misinterpretations of the “cone of uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 hurricane season. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 651667.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brown, J. S. & , and P. Duguid, 2001: Knowledge and organization: The transformation of understanding on the production floor. Organ. Sci., 13, 442455.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dash, N. & , and B. H. Morrow, 2001: Return delays and evacuation order compliance: The case of Hurricane Georges and the Florida Keys. Environ. Hazards, 2–3, 119128.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dash, N. & , and H. Gladwin, 2007: Evacuation decision making and behavioral responses: Individual and household. Nat. Hazards Rev., 8, 6977.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Demeritt, D., , H. Cloke, , F. Pappenberger, , J. Thielen, , J. Barthomes & , and M.-H. Ramos, 2007: Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting. Environ. Hazards, 7, 115127.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Demuth, J. L., , B. H. Morrow & , and J. K. Lazo, 2009: Weather forecast uncertainty information: An exploratory study with broadcast meteorologists. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 16141618.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dix, D. & , and J. Fieux, 2011: Atlanta Integrated Warning Team workshop: A WAS*IS success. Weather and Society Watch, No. 4, NCAR Societal Impacts Program, Boulder, CO, 4–5. [Available online at www.sip.ucar.edu/news/volume5/number4/highlights1.php.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dow, K. & , and S. L. Cutter, 1998: Crying wolf: Repeat responses to hurricane evacuation orders. Coastal Manage., 26, 237252.

  • Fischhoff, B., 1994: What forecasts (seem to) mean. Int. J. Forecasting, 10, 387403.

  • Fischhoff, B., 1995: Risk perception and communication unplugged: Twenty years of process. Risk Anal., 15, 137145.

  • Florida Division of Emergency Management, cited 2011: Evacuation route and zone maps. [Available online at www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/index.htm.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gladwin, C. H., , H. Gladwin & , and W. G. Peacock, 2001: Modeling hurricane evacuation decisions with ethnographic methods. Int. J. Mass Emerg. Disasters, 19, 117143.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gladwin, H. & , and B. H. Morrow, 2005: Hurricane Ivan behavioral analysis. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 66 pp. [Available online at http://chps.sam.usace.army.mil/USHESDATA/Assessments/2004Storms/PDFfiles/Ivan%20Final%20Behave%20download.pdf.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gladwin, H., , J. K. Lazo, , B. H. Morrow, , W. G. Peacock & , and H. E. Willoughby, 2009: Social science research needs for the hurricane forecast and warning system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 2529.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Heath, R. L. & , and H. D. O'Hair, Eds., 2009: Handbook of Risk and Crisis Communication. Routledge Communication Series, Routledge, 696 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Heinselman, P. L., , D. S. LaDue & , and H. Lazrus, 2012: Exploring impacts of rapid-scan radar data on NWS warning decisions. Wea. Forecasting, in press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • HURREVAC, cited 2012: HURREVAC support site. [Available online at www.hurrevac.com/.]

  • Lazo, J. K., , D. M. Waldman, , B. H. Morrow & , and J. A. Thacher, 2010: Assessment of household evacuation decision making and the benefits of improved hurricane forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 207219.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lazrus, H., , B. H. Morrow, , R. E. Morss & , and J. K. Lazo, 2012: Vulnerability beyond stereotypes: Context and agency in hurricane risk communication. Wea. Climate Soc., in press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lee, K. L., , R. J. Meyer & , and E. T. Bradlow, 2009: Analyzing risk response dynamics on the web: The case of Hurricane Katrina. Risk Anal., 29, 17791792.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lindell, M. K., , C. S. Prater & , and W. G. Peacock, 2007: Organizational communication and decision making for hurricane emergencies. Nat. Hazards Rev., 8, 5060.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lundgren, R. E. & , and A. H. McMakin, 2009: Risk Communication: A Handbook for Communicating Environmental, Safety, and Health Risks. 4th ed. IEEE Press, 362 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Morss, R. E., 2010: Interactions among flood predictions, decisions, and outcomes: Synthesis of three cases. Nat. Hazards Rev., 11, 8396.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Morss, R. E. & , and M. F. Ralph, 2007: Use of information by National Weather Service forecasters and emergency managers during CALJET and PACJET-2001. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 539555.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Morss, R. E. & , and M. H. Hayden, 2010: Storm surge and “certain death”: Interviews with Texas coastal residents following Hurricane Ike. Wea. Climate Soc., 2, 174189.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Morss, R. E., , O. V. Wilhelmi, , M. W. Downton & , and E. Gruntfest, 2005: Flood risk, uncertainty, and scientific information for decision making: Lessons from an interdisciplinary project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 15931601.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Morss, R. E., , J. Demuth & , and J. K. Lazo, 2008: Communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts: A survey of the U.S. public. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 974991.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • NOAA, cited 2011a: NAO 216-112: Policy on partnerships in the provision of environmental information. [Available online at www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/ames/administrative_orders/chapter_216/216-112.html.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • NOAA, cited 2011b: National Hurricane Center forecast verification. [Available online at www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification.]

  • NOAA, cited 2011c: National Weather Service mission statement. [Available online at www.nws.noaa.gov/mission.php.]

  • NOAA, cited 2011d: NHC mission and vision. [Available online at www.nhc.noaa.gov/mission.shtml.]

  • NRC, 2003: Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services. National Academies Press, 238 pp.

  • Piotrowski, C. & , and T. R. Armstrong, 1998: Mass media preference in disaster: A study of Hurricane Danny. Soc. Behav. Pers., 26, 341346.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rappaport, E. N., and Coauthors, 2009: Advances and challenges at the National Hurricane Center. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 395419.

  • Rogers, P. & , and M. Frazier, 2011: Red River Devils Lake Integrated Warning Team workshop. Weather and Society Watch, No. 4, NCAR Societal Impacts Program, Boulder, CO, 6 pp. [Available online at www.sip.ucar.edu/news/volume5/number4/highlights2.php.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sherman-Morris, K., 2005: Tornadoes, television and trust—A closer look at the influence of the local weathercaster during severe weather. Environ. Hazards, 6, 201210.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sherman-Morris, K., , J. Senkbeil & , and R. Carver, 2011: Who's Googling what? What Internet searches reveal about hurricane information seeking. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, 975985.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction, 2005: Grand challenges for disaster reduction. National Science and Technology Council, 21 pp. [Available online at www.sdr.gov/SDRGrandChallengesforDisasterReduction.pdf.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Taylor, K., , and S. Priest, , H. Fussell Sisco, , S. Banning & and K. Campbell, 2009: Reading Hurricane Katrina: Information sources and decision-making in response to a natural disaster. Soc. Epistem., 23, 361380.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Toepfer, F., , R. Gall, , F. Marks & , E. Rappaport, cited 2011a: Hurricane forecast improvement program five-year strategic plan. [Available online at www.hfip.org/documents/Strategic_Plan%20121310.pdf.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vogel, C., , S. C. Moser, , R. E. Kasperson & , and G. D. Dabelkon, 2007: Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience science to practice: Pathways, players, and partnerships. Global Environ. Change, 17, 349364.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Weigold, M. F., 2001: Communicating science. Sci. Commun., 23, 164193.

  • Zhang, F., and Coauthors, 2007: An in-person survey investigating public perceptions of and response to Hurricane Rita forecasts along the Texas Coast. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 11771190.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 441 442 91
PDF Downloads 287 287 23

Creation and Communication of Hurricane Risk Information

View More View Less
  • 1 National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado
  • | 2 SocResearch, Miami, Florida
  • | 3 National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Reducing loss of life and harm when a hurricane threatens depends on people receiving hurricane risk information that they can interpret and use in protective decisions. To understand and improve hurricane risk communication, this article examines how National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and local weather forecast offices, local emergency managers, and local television and radio media create and convey hurricane risk information. Data from in-depth interviews and observational sessions with members of these groups from Greater Miami were analyzed to examine their roles, goals, and interactions, and to identify strengths and challenges in how they communicate with each other and with the public. Together, these groups succeed in partnering with each other to make information about approaching hurricane threats widely available. Yet NWS forecasters sometimes find that the information they provide is not used as they intended; media personnel want streamlined information from NWS and emergency managers that emphasizes the timing of hazards and the recommended response and protective actions; and emergency managers need forecast uncertainty information that can help them plan for different scenarios. Thus, we recommend that warning system partners 1) build understanding of each other's needs and constraints; 2) ensure formalized, yet flexible mechanisms exist for exchanging critical information; 3) improve hurricane risk communication by integrating social science knowledge to design and test messages with intended audiences; and 4) evaluate, test, and improve the NWS hurricane-related product suite in collaboration with social scientists.

*The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Julie L. Demuth, Societal Impacts Program, NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 E-mail: jdemuth@ucar.edu

Reducing loss of life and harm when a hurricane threatens depends on people receiving hurricane risk information that they can interpret and use in protective decisions. To understand and improve hurricane risk communication, this article examines how National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and local weather forecast offices, local emergency managers, and local television and radio media create and convey hurricane risk information. Data from in-depth interviews and observational sessions with members of these groups from Greater Miami were analyzed to examine their roles, goals, and interactions, and to identify strengths and challenges in how they communicate with each other and with the public. Together, these groups succeed in partnering with each other to make information about approaching hurricane threats widely available. Yet NWS forecasters sometimes find that the information they provide is not used as they intended; media personnel want streamlined information from NWS and emergency managers that emphasizes the timing of hazards and the recommended response and protective actions; and emergency managers need forecast uncertainty information that can help them plan for different scenarios. Thus, we recommend that warning system partners 1) build understanding of each other's needs and constraints; 2) ensure formalized, yet flexible mechanisms exist for exchanging critical information; 3) improve hurricane risk communication by integrating social science knowledge to design and test messages with intended audiences; and 4) evaluate, test, and improve the NWS hurricane-related product suite in collaboration with social scientists.

*The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Julie L. Demuth, Societal Impacts Program, NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 E-mail: jdemuth@ucar.edu
Save