An update of the progress achieved as part of the NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) is provided. Included is a brief summary of the noteworthy aircraft missions flown in the years since 2005, the first year IFEX flights occurred, as well as a description of the research and development activities that directly address the three primary IFEX goals: 1) collect observations that span the tropical cyclone (TC) life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation; 2) develop and refine measurement strategies and technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment; and 3) improve the understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle. Such activities include the real-time analysis and transmission of Doppler radar measurements; numerical model and data assimilation advancements; characterization of tropical cyclone composite structure across multiple scales, from vortex scale to turbulence scale; improvements in statistical prediction of rapid intensification; and studies specifically targeting tropical cyclogenesis, extratropical transition, and the impact of environmental humidity on TC structure and evolution. While progress in TC intensity forecasting remains challenging, the activities described here provide some hope for improvement.
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- OVERVIEW OF IFEX MISSIONS.
- ADDRESSING THE IFEX GOALS.
- IFEX goal 1: Collect observations that span the TC life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation.
- IFEX goal 2: Develop and refine measurement strategies and technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment.
- Surface wind measurements
- Surface wind analyses
- IFEX goal 3: Improve the understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle
- Multiscale structure of mature hurricanes
- Vortex structure
- Convective structure
- HBL structure
- Turbulence properties
- Rapid intensification
- RI index
- Case study: Hurricane Earl (2010)
- SUMMARY AND FUTURE PLANS.
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NOAA'S Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A Progress Report
Robert Rogers
Robert Rogers
NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Sim Aberson
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NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Altug Aksoy
Altug Aksoy
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
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Bachir Annane
Bachir Annane
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
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Michael Black
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NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Joseph Cione
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NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Neal Dorst
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NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Jason Dunion
Jason Dunion
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
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John Gamache
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NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Stan Goldenberg
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NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan
NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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John Kaplan
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Bradley Klotz
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Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
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Sylvie Lorsolo
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Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
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Frank Marks
Frank Marks
NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Shirley Murillo
Shirley Murillo
NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Mark Powell
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NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Paul Reasor
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NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Kathryn Sellwood
Kathryn Sellwood
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
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Eric Uhlhorn
Eric Uhlhorn
NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Tomislava Vukicevic
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NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Jun Zhang
Jun Zhang
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
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Xuejin Zhang
Xuejin Zhang
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
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Displayed acceptance dates for articles published prior to 2023 are approximate to within a week. If needed, exact acceptance dates can be obtained by emailing amsjol@ametsoc.org.
An update of the progress achieved as part of the NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) is provided. Included is a brief summary of the noteworthy aircraft missions flown in the years since 2005, the first year IFEX flights occurred, as well as a description of the research and development activities that directly address the three primary IFEX goals: 1) collect observations that span the tropical cyclone (TC) life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation; 2) develop and refine measurement strategies and technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment; and 3) improve the understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle. Such activities include the real-time analysis and transmission of Doppler radar measurements; numerical model and data assimilation advancements; characterization of tropical cyclone composite structure across multiple scales, from vortex scale to turbulence scale; improvements in statistical prediction of rapid intensification; and studies specifically targeting tropical cyclogenesis, extratropical transition, and the impact of environmental humidity on TC structure and evolution. While progress in TC intensity forecasting remains challenging, the activities described here provide some hope for improvement.
- OVERVIEW OF IFEX MISSIONS.
- ADDRESSING THE IFEX GOALS.
- IFEX goal 1: Collect observations that span the TC life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation.
- IFEX goal 2: Develop and refine measurement strategies and technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment.
- Surface wind measurements
- Surface wind analyses
- IFEX goal 3: Improve the understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle
- Multiscale structure of mature hurricanes
- Vortex structure
- Convective structure
- HBL structure
- Turbulence properties
- Rapid intensification
- RI index
- Case study: Hurricane Earl (2010)
- SUMMARY AND FUTURE PLANS.
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