Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
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Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Extremes: Extratropical Storms, Winds, and Waves

Russell S. Vose NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina

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Scott Applequist NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina

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Mark A. Bourassa Center for Ocean–Atmosphere Prediction Studies, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

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Sara C. Pryor Department of Geological Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana

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Rebecca J. Barthelmie Department of Geological Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana

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Brian Blanton Renaissance Computing Institute, Chapel Hill, North Carolina

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Peter D. Bromirski Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California

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Harold E. Brooks NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma

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Arthur T. DeGaetano Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York

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Randall M. Dole NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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David R. Easterling NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina

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Robert E. Jensen Engineer Research and Development Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg, Mississippi

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Thomas R. Karl NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina

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Richard W. Katz National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Katherine Klink Department of Geography, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, Minneapolis, Minnesota

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Michael C. Kruk Earth Resources Technology, Inc., Asheville, North Carolina

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Kenneth E. Kunkel Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Asheville, North Carolina

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Michael C. MacCracken Climate Institute, Washington, D.C.

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Thomas C. Peterson NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina

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Karsten Shein NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina

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Bridget R. Thomas Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada

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John E. Walsh University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

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Xiaolan L. Wang Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

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Michael F. Wehner Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California

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Donald J. Wuebbles Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, Illinois

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Robert S. Young Department of Geosciences and Natural Resources, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, North Carolina

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Print Publication:
01 Mar 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00162.1
Page(s):
377–386
Restricted access

This scientific assessment examines changes in three climate extremes—extratropical storms, winds, and waves—with an emphasis on U.S. coastal regions during the cold season. There is moderate evidence of an increase in both extratropical storm frequency and intensity during the cold season in the Northern Hemisphere since 1950, with suggestive evidence of geographic shifts resulting in slight upward trends in offshore/coastal regions. There is also suggestive evidence of an increase in extreme winds (at least annually) over parts of the ocean since the early to mid-1980s, but the evidence over the U.S. land surface is inconclusive. Finally, there is moderate evidence of an increase in extreme waves in winter along the Pacific coast since the 1950s, but along other U.S. shorelines any tendencies are of modest magnitude compared with historical variability. The data for extratropical cyclones are considered to be of relatively high quality for trend detection, whereas the data for extreme winds and waves are judged to be of intermediate quality. In terms of physical causes leading to multidecadal changes, the level of understanding for both extratropical storms and extreme winds is considered to be relatively low, while that for extreme waves is judged to be intermediate. Since the ability to measure these changes with some confidence is relatively recent, understanding is expected to improve in the future for a variety of reasons, including increased periods of record and the development of “climate reanalysis” projects.

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Russell S. Vose, NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC 28801, E-mail: russell.vose@noaa.gov

This scientific assessment examines changes in three climate extremes—extratropical storms, winds, and waves—with an emphasis on U.S. coastal regions during the cold season. There is moderate evidence of an increase in both extratropical storm frequency and intensity during the cold season in the Northern Hemisphere since 1950, with suggestive evidence of geographic shifts resulting in slight upward trends in offshore/coastal regions. There is also suggestive evidence of an increase in extreme winds (at least annually) over parts of the ocean since the early to mid-1980s, but the evidence over the U.S. land surface is inconclusive. Finally, there is moderate evidence of an increase in extreme waves in winter along the Pacific coast since the 1950s, but along other U.S. shorelines any tendencies are of modest magnitude compared with historical variability. The data for extratropical cyclones are considered to be of relatively high quality for trend detection, whereas the data for extreme winds and waves are judged to be of intermediate quality. In terms of physical causes leading to multidecadal changes, the level of understanding for both extratropical storms and extreme winds is considered to be relatively low, while that for extreme waves is judged to be intermediate. Since the ability to measure these changes with some confidence is relatively recent, understanding is expected to improve in the future for a variety of reasons, including increased periods of record and the development of “climate reanalysis” projects.

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Russell S. Vose, NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC 28801, E-mail: russell.vose@noaa.gov
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