Editorial Type:
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Article Type:
Research Article

Improving Flash Flood Forecasts: The HMT-WPC Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment

Faye E. Barthold I .M. Systems Group, Inc., Rockville, Maryland, and NOAA/NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

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Thomas E. Workoff Systems Research Group, Inc., Colorado Springs, Colorado, and NOAA/NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

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Brian A. Cosgrove NOAA/NWS/National Water Center, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Jonathan J. Gourley NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma

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David R. Novak NOAA/NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

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Kelly M. Mahoney Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado

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Print Publication:
01 Nov 2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00201.1
Page(s):
1859–1866
Restricted access

Abstract

Despite advancements in numerical modeling and the increasing prevalence of convection-allowing guidance, flash flood forecasting remains a substantial challenge. Accurate flash flood forecasts depend not only on accurate quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), but also on an understanding of the corresponding hydrologic response. To advance forecast skill, innovative guidance products that blend meteorology and hydrology are needed, as well as a comprehensive verification dataset to identify areas in need of improvement.

To address these challenges, in 2013 the Hydrometeorological Testbed at the Weather Prediction Center (HMT-WPC), partnering with the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), developed and hosted the inaugural Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment. In its first two years, the experiment has focused on ways to combine meteorological guidance with available hydrologic information. One example of this is the creation of neighborhood flash flood guidance (FFG) exceedance probabilities, which combine QPF information from convection-allowing ensembles with flash flood guidance; these were found to provide valuable information about the flash flood threat across the contiguous United States.

Additionally, WPC has begun to address the challenge of flash flood verification by developing a verification database that incorporates observations from a variety of disparate sources in an attempt to build a comprehensive picture of flash flooding across the nation. While the development of this database represents an important step forward in the verification of flash flood forecasts, many of the other challenges identified during the experiment will require a long-term community effort in order to make notable advancements.

CURRENT AFFILIATION: NOAA/NWS/WFO New York, NY, Upton, New York

CURRENT AFFILIATION: FirstEnergy, Akron, Ohio

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Faye E. Barthold, NOAA/NWS/WFO New York, NY, 175 Brookhaven Avenue, Upton, NY 11973, E-mail: faye.barthold@noaa.gov

Abstract

Despite advancements in numerical modeling and the increasing prevalence of convection-allowing guidance, flash flood forecasting remains a substantial challenge. Accurate flash flood forecasts depend not only on accurate quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), but also on an understanding of the corresponding hydrologic response. To advance forecast skill, innovative guidance products that blend meteorology and hydrology are needed, as well as a comprehensive verification dataset to identify areas in need of improvement.

To address these challenges, in 2013 the Hydrometeorological Testbed at the Weather Prediction Center (HMT-WPC), partnering with the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), developed and hosted the inaugural Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment. In its first two years, the experiment has focused on ways to combine meteorological guidance with available hydrologic information. One example of this is the creation of neighborhood flash flood guidance (FFG) exceedance probabilities, which combine QPF information from convection-allowing ensembles with flash flood guidance; these were found to provide valuable information about the flash flood threat across the contiguous United States.

Additionally, WPC has begun to address the challenge of flash flood verification by developing a verification database that incorporates observations from a variety of disparate sources in an attempt to build a comprehensive picture of flash flooding across the nation. While the development of this database represents an important step forward in the verification of flash flood forecasts, many of the other challenges identified during the experiment will require a long-term community effort in order to make notable advancements.

CURRENT AFFILIATION: NOAA/NWS/WFO New York, NY, Upton, New York

CURRENT AFFILIATION: FirstEnergy, Akron, Ohio

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Faye E. Barthold, NOAA/NWS/WFO New York, NY, 175 Brookhaven Avenue, Upton, NY 11973, E-mail: faye.barthold@noaa.gov
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