Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Superensemble Regional Climate Modeling for the Western United States

Philip W. Mote Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon

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Myles R. Allen School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom

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Richard G. Jones Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Sihan Li Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon

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Roberto Mera Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon

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David E. Rupp Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon

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Ahmed Salahuddin Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon

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Dean Vickers Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon

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Print Publication:
01 Feb 2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00090.1
Page(s):
203–215
Restricted access

Abstract

Computing resources donated by volunteers have generated the first superensemble of regional climate model results, in which the Hadley Centre Regional Model, version 3P (HadRM3P), and Hadley Centre Atmosphere Model, version 3P (HadAM3P), were implemented for the western United States at 25-km resolution. Over 136,000 valid and complete 1-yr runs have been generated to date: about 126,000 for 1960–2009 using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and 10,000 for 2030–49 using projected SSTs from a global model simulation. Ensemble members differ in initial conditions, model physics, and (potentially, for future runs) SSTs. This unprecedented confluence of high spatial resolution and large ensemble size allows high signal-to-noise ratio and more robust estimates of uncertainty. This paper describes the experiment, compares model output with observations, shows select results for climate change simulations, and gives examples of the strength of the large ensemble size.

CURRENT AFFILIATIONS: Mera—Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, D.C.; Salahuddin and Vickers—Unaffiliated

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Philip Mote, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, CEOAS Admin Building 104, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97330, E-mail: pmote@coas.oregonstate.edu

Abstract

Computing resources donated by volunteers have generated the first superensemble of regional climate model results, in which the Hadley Centre Regional Model, version 3P (HadRM3P), and Hadley Centre Atmosphere Model, version 3P (HadAM3P), were implemented for the western United States at 25-km resolution. Over 136,000 valid and complete 1-yr runs have been generated to date: about 126,000 for 1960–2009 using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and 10,000 for 2030–49 using projected SSTs from a global model simulation. Ensemble members differ in initial conditions, model physics, and (potentially, for future runs) SSTs. This unprecedented confluence of high spatial resolution and large ensemble size allows high signal-to-noise ratio and more robust estimates of uncertainty. This paper describes the experiment, compares model output with observations, shows select results for climate change simulations, and gives examples of the strength of the large ensemble size.

CURRENT AFFILIATIONS: Mera—Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, D.C.; Salahuddin and Vickers—Unaffiliated

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Philip Mote, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, CEOAS Admin Building 104, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97330, E-mail: pmote@coas.oregonstate.edu
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