Importance of Late Fall ENSO Teleconnection in the Euro-Atlantic Sector

Martin P. King Uni Research Climate, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

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Ivana Herceg-Bulić Department of Geophysics, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

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Ileana Bladé Group of Meteorology, Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

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Javier García-Serrano Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain

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Noel Keenlyside Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

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Fred Kucharski Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

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Camille Li Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

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Stefan Sobolowski Uni Research Climate, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

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Abstract

Recent studies have indicated the importance of fall climate forcings and teleconnections in influencing the climate of the northern mid- to high latitudes. Here, we present some exploratory analyses using observational data and seasonal hindcasts, with the aim of highlighting the potential of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a driver of climate variability during boreal late fall and early winter (November and December) in the North Atlantic–European sector, and motivating further research on this relatively unexplored topic. The atmospheric ENSO teleconnection in November and December is reminiscent of the east Atlantic pattern and distinct from the well-known arching extratropical Rossby wave train found from January to March. Temperature and precipitation over Europe in November are positively correlated with the Niño-3.4 index, which suggests a potentially important ENSO climate impact during late fall. In particular, the ENSO-related temperature anomaly extends over a much larger area than during the subsequent winter months. We discuss the implications of these results and pose some research questions.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Martin P. King, martin.king@uni.no

Abstract

Recent studies have indicated the importance of fall climate forcings and teleconnections in influencing the climate of the northern mid- to high latitudes. Here, we present some exploratory analyses using observational data and seasonal hindcasts, with the aim of highlighting the potential of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a driver of climate variability during boreal late fall and early winter (November and December) in the North Atlantic–European sector, and motivating further research on this relatively unexplored topic. The atmospheric ENSO teleconnection in November and December is reminiscent of the east Atlantic pattern and distinct from the well-known arching extratropical Rossby wave train found from January to March. Temperature and precipitation over Europe in November are positively correlated with the Niño-3.4 index, which suggests a potentially important ENSO climate impact during late fall. In particular, the ENSO-related temperature anomaly extends over a much larger area than during the subsequent winter months. We discuss the implications of these results and pose some research questions.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Martin P. King, martin.king@uni.no
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