• Aguado, E., D. Cayan, L. Riddle, and M. Roos, 1992: Climatic fluctuations and the timing of West Coast streamflow. J. Climate,5, 1468–1483.

  • Aizen, V. B., and E. M. Aizen, 1994: Features of regime and mass exchange of glaciers on central Asia periphery. Bull. Glac. Res.,12, 9–24.

  • ——, and ——, 1995: Hydrological cycles of the north and south peripheries of mountain-glacial basins of central Asia. J. Hydrol. Processes, in press.

  • ——,and ——, 1997: Glaciers, snow cover and lakes of central Asia as indicators of climate changes in earth–ocean–atmosphere system. Proc. Int. Symp. on Impact of Climatic Change/Global Warming on Hydrology and Water Resources, Lhasa, China, 269–285.

  • ——, ——, and J. M. Melack, 1995: Climate, snow cover and runoff in the Tien Shan. Water Resour. Bull.,31, 1–17.

  • ——, ——, and ——, 1996: Runoff formation in the north Tien Shan. J. Hydrol.,186, 229–251.

  • Akbarov, A. A., and V. F. Suslov, 1984: Glacial runoff during dry years (in Russian). J. Works Central Asian Sci. Res. Inst., 87, 69–82.

  • Avsuyk, G. A., Ed., 1984: Tuyksu Glaciers (in Russian). Hydrometeo Publishing, 170 pp.

  • Barry, R. G., 1994: Past and potential future changes in mountain environments. Mountain Environments in Changing Climate, M. Beniston, Ed., Routledge Publishing, 55–79.

  • Beltrami, H., and J. C. Mareschal, 1992: Ground temperature histories for central and eastern Canada from geothermal measurements: Little Ice Age signature. Geophys. Res. Lett.,19, 689–692.

  • Beniston, M., M. Rebetez, F. Giorgi, and M. R. Marinucci, 1994: An analysis of regional climate change in Switzerland. Theor. Appl. Climatol.,49, 135–159.

  • Budyko, M. I., 1977: Climatic Changes. American Geophys. Union, 187 pp.

  • Chapman, D. S., T. J. Chisholm, and R. N. Harris, 1992: Combining borehole temperature and meteorologic data to constrain past climate change. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol.,98, 269–281.

  • Chedia, O. K., 1972: Morphostructures and Neotectogenesis of Tien Shan (in Russian). Ilim Publishing, 314 pp.

  • Chisholm, T. J., and D. S. Chapman, 1992: Climate change inferred from borehole temperatures: An example from western Utah. J. Geophys. Res.,97, 14 155–14 176.

  • Dikih, A. N., 1993: Glacial runoff of Tien Shan rivers and its role in formation of total runoff (in Russian). J. Data Glaciol. Studies,78, 5–43.

  • Diskyn, M. N., 1970: On the computer evaluation of Thiessen weights. J. Hydrol.,11, 69–78.

  • Fliri, F., 1990: Uber Veranderungen der Schnedecke in Nord- und Osttirol in der Periode 1895–1990. Zeit. Gletsherk. Glazialgeol.,26, 145–154.

  • Folland, C. K., T. R. Karl, and K. Y. A. Vinnikov, 1993: Observed climate variations and change. The IPCC Scientific Assessment, J. T. Houghton, B. A. Callander, and S. K. Varney, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 195–238.

  • Gandin, L. S., and R. L. Kagan, 1976: Statistical Methods of Meteorological Data Interpretation (in Russian). Hydrometeo Publishing, 359 pp.

  • Groisman, P. Y., T. R. Karl, R. W. Knight, and G. L. Stenchikov, 1994: Changes of snow cover, temperature, and radiative heat balance over the Northern Hemisphere. J. Climate,7, 1633–1656.

  • Hansen, J., and S. Lebedeff, 1987: Global trend of measured surface air temperature. J. Geophys. Res.,92, 13 345–13 372.

  • Iliak, A. P., and N. V. Porfirieva, 1992: Variability of cloudiness and air humidity in Uzbekistan (in Russian). J. Works Central Asian Sci. Res. Inst.,141, 101–109.

  • Jones, P. D., S. C. B. Raper, R. S. Bradley, H. F. Diaz, P. M. Kelly, and T. M. L. Wigley, 1986: Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures variations, 1851–1984. J. Climate Appl. Meteor.,25, 161–179.

  • Karl, T. R., and W. E. Riebsame, 1989: The impact of decadal fluctuations in mean precipitation and temperature on runoff: A sensitivity study over the United States. Climatic Change,15, 423–447.

  • ——, R. R. Heim, and R. G. Quayle, 1991: The greenhouse effect in North America: If not now, when? Science,251, 1058–1061.

  • ——, P. Y. Groisman, R. W. Knight, and R. R. Heim, 1993: Recent variations of snow cover and snowfall in North America and their relation to precipitation and temperature variations. J. Climate,6, 1327–1344.

  • Konovalov, V. G., and A. S. Shchetinnicov, 1994: Evolution of glaciation in the Pamiro-Alai mountains and its effect on river run-off. J. Glaciol.,134, 149–157.

  • Krenke, A. N., 1980: Glacial runoff into central Asian rivers and possibilities of its regulation (in Russian). J. Water Resour.,3, 5–19.

  • Kurowski, L., 1891: Die Hohe der Schneegrenze mit besonderer Berucksichtingung der Finsteraargorn-gruppe (in German). Pencks Geogr. Abhandlungen,5, 43–58.

  • Kuznezov, N. T., 1968: Water of Central Asia (in Russian). Nauka Publishing, 271 pp.

  • Kuznezova, L. P., Ed., 1984: Moisture Contents and Transfer in Atmosphere over the USSR (in Russian). Main Department of Geodesy and Mapping Survey, 76 pp.

  • Langbein, W. B., 1949: Annual runoff in the United States. U.S. Geol. Sur. Circ.,5, 14.

  • Lins, H. F., and P. J. Michaels, 1994: Increasing U.S. streamflow linked to greenhouse forcing. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union,75, 281/284–285.

  • Manabe, S., 1983: Carbon dioxide and climatic change. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 125, Academic Press, 39–82.

  • Mohnl, H., 1991: Fluctuations of snow parameters in the mountainous region of Austria within the last 90 years. Mitteilungsb. Hydrog. Dienst. Osterreich.,65/66, 264–268.

  • Nash, L. L., and P. H. Gleick, 1991: The sensitivity of streamflow in Colorado Basin to climatic changes. J. Hydrol.,125, 221–241.

  • Pupacko, A., 1993: Variations in northern Sierra Nevada streamflow: Implications of climate change. Water Resour. Bull.,29, 283–290.

  • Robinson, D. A., F. T. Keimig, and K. F. Dewey, 1991: Recent variations in Northern Hemisphere snow cover. Proc. 15th Annual Climatic Diagnostics Workshop, Asheville, NC, Natl. Oceanic Atmos. Admin., 219–224.

  • Romanovskiy, V. V., 1993: Water balance and dynamic of coastal processes of Issik Kul Lake (in Russian). Ph.D. dissertation, Tashkent State University, 210 pp.

  • Suslov, V. F., Ed., 1980: Abramova Glacier (in Russian). Hydrometeo Publishing, 206 pp.

  • Vinnikov, K. Ya., 1986: Sensitivity of Climate (in Russian). Hydrometeo Publishing, 223 pp.

  • Waggoner, P. E., Ed., 1990: Climate Change and US Water Resources. John Wiley and Sons, 232 pp.

  • Wang, K., and T. J. Lewis, 1992: Geothermal evidence from Canada for a cold period before recent climatic warming. Science,256, 1003–1005.

  • Ward, R. C., 1975: Principles of Hydrology. McGraw-Hill, 367 pp.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 706 316 19
PDF Downloads 484 254 22

Climatic and Hydrologic Changes in the Tien Shan, Central Asia

View More View Less
  • 1 Institute for Computational Earth System Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California
  • | 2 Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, School of Environmental Science and Management, and ICESS, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California
  • | 3 School of Environmental Science and Management and ICESS, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California
Restricted access

Abstract

The authors analyze climatic and hydrologic data from 110 sites collected from the middle of the twentieth century to the present in the Tien Shan, one of the largest mountain systems of central Asia. In spite of a few confounding interregional variations in the temporal changes of surface air temperature, precipitation, runoff, glacier mass, and snow thickness in the Tien Shan, it has been possible to establish statistically significant long-term trends in these key hydroclimatic variables. The average rise in air temperature was 0.01°C yr−1 over the range, with slightly lower values below 2000-m elevation. The precipitation in the Tien Shan increased 1.2 mm yr−1 over the past half-century. The precipitation increase is larger at low altitudes in the northern and western regions than at altitudes above 2000 m. A decrease in snow resources occurred almost everywhere in the Tien Shan; the maximum snow thickness and snow duration have decreased on average 10 cm and 9 days, respectively. The annual runoff has dropped or did not change significantly in Tien Shan rivers. The main factor determining the change in river runoff is the type of precipitation (liquid or solid). Over the last few decades, periods of glacier decline have coincided with declining river runoff.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Vladimir Aizen, ICESS, University of California, Santa Barbara, 6th Floor, Santa Barbara, CA 93106.

Email: aizen@icess.ucsb.edu

Abstract

The authors analyze climatic and hydrologic data from 110 sites collected from the middle of the twentieth century to the present in the Tien Shan, one of the largest mountain systems of central Asia. In spite of a few confounding interregional variations in the temporal changes of surface air temperature, precipitation, runoff, glacier mass, and snow thickness in the Tien Shan, it has been possible to establish statistically significant long-term trends in these key hydroclimatic variables. The average rise in air temperature was 0.01°C yr−1 over the range, with slightly lower values below 2000-m elevation. The precipitation in the Tien Shan increased 1.2 mm yr−1 over the past half-century. The precipitation increase is larger at low altitudes in the northern and western regions than at altitudes above 2000 m. A decrease in snow resources occurred almost everywhere in the Tien Shan; the maximum snow thickness and snow duration have decreased on average 10 cm and 9 days, respectively. The annual runoff has dropped or did not change significantly in Tien Shan rivers. The main factor determining the change in river runoff is the type of precipitation (liquid or solid). Over the last few decades, periods of glacier decline have coincided with declining river runoff.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Vladimir Aizen, ICESS, University of California, Santa Barbara, 6th Floor, Santa Barbara, CA 93106.

Email: aizen@icess.ucsb.edu

Save