Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Reconstruction of Monthly Mean 700-mb Heights from Surface Data by Reverse Specification

William H. Klein Cooperative Institute for Climate Studies, Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland

Search for other papers by William H. Klein in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
and
Ying Dai Cooperative Institute for Climate Studies, Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland

Search for other papers by Ying Dai in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Aug 1998
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2136:ROMMMH>2.0.CO;2
Page(s):
2136–2146
Restricted access

Abstract

This paper demonstrates an objective method of computing monthly mean 700-mb height anomalies (H) at 108 grid points in the Western Hemisphere for a 40-yr period as a function of concurrent anomalies of monthly mean sea level pressure (P), at the same 108 points used for H, and monthly mean surface air temperature (T) averaged over 112 areas in North America. The authors applied a forward stepwise program to derive linear multiple regression equations that explained 81% of the variance of H by means of only 3.5 variables, averaged over all months and grid points. The stability of these equations held up well on 6 yr of independent data in terms of explained variance, root-mean-square error, and the spatial anomaly correlation coefficient. Therefore, it seems feasible to reconstruct maps of H for the first half of the twentieth century as a function of data on P and T only.

Corresponding author address: Dr. William H. Klein, 5225 Pooks Rd., 929 South, Bethesda, MD 20814.

Abstract

This paper demonstrates an objective method of computing monthly mean 700-mb height anomalies (H) at 108 grid points in the Western Hemisphere for a 40-yr period as a function of concurrent anomalies of monthly mean sea level pressure (P), at the same 108 points used for H, and monthly mean surface air temperature (T) averaged over 112 areas in North America. The authors applied a forward stepwise program to derive linear multiple regression equations that explained 81% of the variance of H by means of only 3.5 variables, averaged over all months and grid points. The stability of these equations held up well on 6 yr of independent data in terms of explained variance, root-mean-square error, and the spatial anomaly correlation coefficient. Therefore, it seems feasible to reconstruct maps of H for the first half of the twentieth century as a function of data on P and T only.

Corresponding author address: Dr. William H. Klein, 5225 Pooks Rd., 929 South, Bethesda, MD 20814.

Save
Cover Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate

  • Cayan, D. R., C. F. Ropelewski, and T. R. Karl, 1986: An Atlas of United States Monthly and Seasonal Temperature Anomalies: December 1930–November 1984. United States Climate Program Office, Department of Commerce, 244 pp.

  • Davis, F. K., and W. H. Klein, 1945: Computing 10,000-foot pressure from surface data. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,26, 147–152.

  • Davis, R., 1976: Predictability of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure anomalies over the North Pacific Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,6, 249–266.

  • Fritts, H. C., T. J. Blasing, B. P. Hoyden, and J. E. Kutzbach, 1971:Multivariate techniques for specifying tree growth and climatic relationships and for reconstructing anomalies in paleoclimate. J. Appl. Meteor.,10, 845–864.

  • IMSL, Inc., 1991: User’s manual: Fortran subroutines for statistical analysis, Version 2.0. IMSL, 235–250. [Available from IMSL, Inc., Permian Tower, 2500 City West Blvd., Houston, TX 77042.].

  • Jones, P. D., S. C. B. Raper, R. S. Bradley, H. F. Diaz, P. M. Kelly, and T. M. L. Wigley, 1986: Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature variations: 1851–1954. J. Climate Appl. Meteor.,25, 161–179.

  • Klein, W. H., 1965: Application of synoptic climatology and short-range numerical prediction to five-day forecasting. U.S. Weather Bureau Research Paper, Vol. 46, 109 pp.

  • ——, 1967: Specification of sea level pressure from 700 mb height. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,93, 214–226.

  • ——, 1983: Objective specification of monthly mean surface temperature from mean 700 mb heights in winter. Mon. Wea. Rev.,111, 673–691.

  • ——, and F. Lewis, 1970: Computer forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures. J. Appl. Meteor.,9, 350–359.

  • ——, and R. Yang, 1986: Specification of monthly mean surface temperature anomalies in Europe and Asia from concurrent 700 mb monthly mean height anomalies over the northern hemisphere. J. Climatol.,6, 463–484.

  • ——, and H. J. Bloom, 1989: An operational system for specifying monthly precipitation amounts over the United States from the field of concurrent mean 700 mb heights. Wea. Forecasting,4, 51–60.

  • ——, and B. T. Whistler, 1991: Specification of monthly mean anomalies of fire-weather elements in the United States. Agric. For. Meteor.,56, 145–172.

  • ——, B. M. Lewis, and I. Enger, 1959: Objective prediction of five-day mean temperatures during winter. J. Meteor.,16, 672–682.

  • Meisinger, C. L., 1922: The preparation and significance of free air pressure maps for the central and eastern United States. Mon. Wea. Rev.,50, 453–468.

  • Miller, R. G., 1958: The screening procedure. A statistical procedure for screening predictors in multiple regression. Studies in Statistical Weather Prediction, Part II, Travelers Weather Research Center, 86–136.

  • Namias, J., 1944: Construction of 10,000-foot pressure charts over ocean areas. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,25, 175–182.

  • ——, 1982: Sea surface temperature teleconnections in the North Pacific and related coastal phenomena. Preprints, First Int. Conf. on Meteorology and Air/Sea Interaction of the Coastal Zone, The Hague, the Netherlands, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 286–289.

  • ——, 1986: Autobiography. Namias Symposium, J. O. Roads, Ed., Scripps Institution of Oceanography Reference Series 86-17, 30–36.

  • Parker, D. E., P. D. Jones, C. K. Folland, and A. Bevan, 1994: Interdecadal changes of surface temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res.,99, 14 373–14 399.

  • Teisserenc de Bort, L., 1885: Étude sur la circulation général de l’atmosphére. Annales du Bureau Central Meteorologique de France, Part IV, 35–44.

  • U.S. Weather Bureau, 1952: Normal weather charts for the Northern Hemisphere. Weather Bureau Tech. Paper 21, 74 pp.

  • Willett, H. C., W. H. Klein, and F. K. Davis, 1943: Historical daily 10,000 ft. maps for the Northern Hemisphere. U.S. Air Force Project.

  • Wolter, K., 1997: Trimming problems and remedies in COADS. J. Climate,10, 1980–1997.

  • Young, K. C., 1994: Reconstructing streamflow time series in central Arizona using monthly precipitation and tree ring records. J. Climate,7, 361–374.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 269 129 18
PDF Downloads 52 19 2