Article Type:
Research Article

A Pilot Study Examining U.S. Winter Cyclone Frequency Patterns Associated with Three ENSO Parameters

James Noel Ohio River Forecast Center, National Weather Service, Wilmington, Ohio

Search for other papers by James Noel in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
and
David Changnon Department of Geography, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, Illinois

Search for other papers by David Changnon in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Aug 1998
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2152:APSEUS>2.0.CO;2
Page(s):
2152–2159
Restricted access

Abstract

Teleconnections were used to link three El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) parameters to winter (December–February) cyclone frequencies over the United States during the 1949–96 period. Since each ENSO event is not exactly the same, small subsets of ENSO events were examined in addition to the more common composite ENSO event. Mean winter cyclone frequencies, derived by counting cyclones passing through 30, 5° latitude equal-area circles located in a grid from 70° to 120°W and 30° to 50°N were determined for classes of El Niños and La Niñas based on 1) the intensity of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly, 2) the intensity of the Tahiti–Darwin sea level pressure anomaly, and 3) the location of the 28°C isotherm. The average cyclone count for each class of El Niño and La Niña was compared to the average count for winters when no ENSO event occurred.

Expected differences in cyclone frequency patterns when comparing an average of all El Niño winters to all La Niña winters were found; however, large pattern differences were also determined when comparing winters with strong El Niños to moderate–weak El Niños and similarly for La Niñas. Significant differences in number of cyclones were found in 8 of 30 circles located in the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes, New England, and the Southeast. The differences found in the cyclone frequency patterns for El Niños and La Niñas of different intensities and locations indicated that using a composite of all El Niños or La Niñas may provide misleading information while examination of each of these parameters independently may assist in the preparation of long-range climate predictions.

Corresponding author address: Mr. James J. Noel, NOAA/National Weather Service, Ohio River Forecast Center, 1901 South State Route 134, Wilmington, OH 45177.

Abstract

Teleconnections were used to link three El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) parameters to winter (December–February) cyclone frequencies over the United States during the 1949–96 period. Since each ENSO event is not exactly the same, small subsets of ENSO events were examined in addition to the more common composite ENSO event. Mean winter cyclone frequencies, derived by counting cyclones passing through 30, 5° latitude equal-area circles located in a grid from 70° to 120°W and 30° to 50°N were determined for classes of El Niños and La Niñas based on 1) the intensity of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly, 2) the intensity of the Tahiti–Darwin sea level pressure anomaly, and 3) the location of the 28°C isotherm. The average cyclone count for each class of El Niño and La Niña was compared to the average count for winters when no ENSO event occurred.

Expected differences in cyclone frequency patterns when comparing an average of all El Niño winters to all La Niña winters were found; however, large pattern differences were also determined when comparing winters with strong El Niños to moderate–weak El Niños and similarly for La Niñas. Significant differences in number of cyclones were found in 8 of 30 circles located in the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes, New England, and the Southeast. The differences found in the cyclone frequency patterns for El Niños and La Niñas of different intensities and locations indicated that using a composite of all El Niños or La Niñas may provide misleading information while examination of each of these parameters independently may assist in the preparation of long-range climate predictions.

Corresponding author address: Mr. James J. Noel, NOAA/National Weather Service, Ohio River Forecast Center, 1901 South State Route 134, Wilmington, OH 45177.

Save
Cover Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate

  • Angell, J. K., and J. Korshover, 1987: Variability in United States cloudiness and relation to El Niño. J. Climate Appl. Meteor.,26, 580–584.

  • Bjerknes, J., 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev.,97, 163–172.

  • Cane, M. A., 1983: Oceanographic events during El Niño. Science,222, 1189–1195.

  • Changnon, D., J. J. Noel, and L. H. Maze, 1995: Determining cyclone frequencies using equal-area circles. Mon. Wea. Rev.,123, 2285–2294.

  • Chen, W. Y., 1982: Fluctuations in Northern Hemispheric 700 mb height fields associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev.,110, 808–823.

  • Climate Prediction Center, 1987–97: Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce. [Available from Climate Analysis Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, World Weather Building, Rm. 605, 5200 Auth Rd., Washington, DC 20233.].

  • Diaz, H. F., and R. G. Quayle, 1978: The 1976–77 winter in the contiguous United States in comparison with past records. Mon. Wea. Rev.,106, 1393–1421.

  • Douglas, A. V., D. R. Cayan, and J. Namias, 1982: Large-scale changes in North Pacific and North American weather patterns in recent decades. Mon. Wea. Rev.,110, 1851–1862.

  • Glantz, M. H., R. W. Katz, and N. Nicholls, 1991: Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies. Cambridge University Press, 535 pp.

  • Halpert, M., and C. Ropelewski, 1989: Atlas of Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures and Surface Winds. NOAA Atlas 8, 212 pp.

  • Horel, J. D., and J. M. Wallace, 1981: Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev.,109, 813–829.

  • Kerr, R. A., 1992: Unmasking a shifty climate system. Science,255, 1508–1510.

  • Kiladis, G. N., and H. F. Diaz, 1989: Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate,2, 1069–1090.

  • Namias, J., 1978: Multiple causes of the North American abnormal winter 1976–77. Mon. Wea. Rev.,106, 279–295.

  • Nitta, T., and S. Yamada, 1989: Recent warming of the tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemispheric circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,67, 375–383.

  • Noel, J. J., 1993: North America cyclone frequency during the positive, negative, and zero phases of the Southern Oscillation. Central Region Applied Research Paper 10-7, National Weather Service Central Region Headquarters, 80–89.

  • Philander, S. G., 1990: El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press, 293 pp.

  • Quinn, W. H., D. O. Zopf, K. S. Short, and R. T. W. Kuo-Yang, 1978:Historical trends and statistics of the Southern Oscillation, El Niño and Indonesian droughts. Fish. Bull.,76, 663–691.

  • Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter, 1982: Variations in tropical SST and surface wind fields associated with Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Mon. Wea. Rev.,110, 354–384.

  • ——, and J. M. Wallace, 1983: Meteorological aspects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Science,222, 1195–1202.

  • Redmond, K. T., and R. W. Koch, 1990: Western surface climate and streamflow and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Preprints, Int. Symp. on Hydraulics/Hydrology of Arid Lands, San Diego, CA, American Society of Civil Engineers, 567–572.

  • Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1986: North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mon. Wea. Rev.,114, 2352–2362.

  • ——, and ——, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev.,115, 1606–1626.

  • ——, and ——, 1990: Interannual variability and the detection of climatic trends. Preprints, Symp. on Global Change Systems—Special Session on Climate Variations and Hydrology, Anaheim, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96–99.

  • Trenberth, K. E., 1976: Spatial and temporal variations of the Southern Oscillation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,102, 639–653.

  • ——, G. W. Branstator, and P. A. Arkin, 1988: Origins of the 1988 North American drought. Science,242, 1640–1645.

  • Yarnal, B., and H. F. Diaz, 1986: Relationship between extremes of the Southern Oscillation and winter climate of the Anglo-American Pacific Coast. J. Climatol.,6, 197–219.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 436 242 14
PDF Downloads 76 20 3