A Statistical Extended-Range Tropical Forecast Model Based on the Slow Evolution of the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Duane E. Waliser Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary Atmospheres, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York

Search for other papers by Duane E. Waliser in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Charles Jones Institute for Computational Earth System Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California

Search for other papers by Charles Jones in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Jae-Kyung E. Schemm Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Camp Springs, Maryland

Search for other papers by Jae-Kyung E. Schemm in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Nicholas E. Graham International Research Institute, Climate Research Division, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California

Search for other papers by Nicholas E. Graham in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

In this study, a statistical model is developed that exploits the slow evolution of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) to predict tropical rainfall variability at long lead times (i.e., 5–20 days). The model is based on a field-to-field decomposition that uses previous and present pentads of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR; predictors) to predict future pentads of OLR (predictands). The model was developed using 30–70-day bandpassed OLR data from 1979 to 1989 and validated on data from 1990 to 1996. For the validation period, the model exhibits temporal correlations to observed bandpassed data of about 0.5–0.9 over a significant region of the Eastern Hemisphere at lead times from 5 to 20 days, after which the correlation drops rapidly with increasing lead time. Correlations against observed total anomalies are on the order of 0.3–0.5 over a smaller region of the Eastern Hemisphere.

Comparing the skill values from the above OLR-based model, along with those from an identical statistical model using reanalysis-derived 200-mb zonal wind anomalies, to the skill values of 200-mb zonal wind predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Dynamic Extended Range Forecasts shows that the statistical models appear to perform considerably better. These results indicate that considerable advantage might be afforded from the further exploration and eventual implementation of MJO-based statistical models to augment current operational long-range forecasts in the Tropics. The comparisons also indicate that there is considerably more work to be done in achieving the likely forecast potential that dynamic models might offer if they could suitably simulate MJO variability.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Duane E. Waliser, ITPA/MSRC, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000.

Email: waliser@terra.msrc.sunysb.edu

Abstract

In this study, a statistical model is developed that exploits the slow evolution of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) to predict tropical rainfall variability at long lead times (i.e., 5–20 days). The model is based on a field-to-field decomposition that uses previous and present pentads of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR; predictors) to predict future pentads of OLR (predictands). The model was developed using 30–70-day bandpassed OLR data from 1979 to 1989 and validated on data from 1990 to 1996. For the validation period, the model exhibits temporal correlations to observed bandpassed data of about 0.5–0.9 over a significant region of the Eastern Hemisphere at lead times from 5 to 20 days, after which the correlation drops rapidly with increasing lead time. Correlations against observed total anomalies are on the order of 0.3–0.5 over a smaller region of the Eastern Hemisphere.

Comparing the skill values from the above OLR-based model, along with those from an identical statistical model using reanalysis-derived 200-mb zonal wind anomalies, to the skill values of 200-mb zonal wind predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Dynamic Extended Range Forecasts shows that the statistical models appear to perform considerably better. These results indicate that considerable advantage might be afforded from the further exploration and eventual implementation of MJO-based statistical models to augment current operational long-range forecasts in the Tropics. The comparisons also indicate that there is considerably more work to be done in achieving the likely forecast potential that dynamic models might offer if they could suitably simulate MJO variability.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Duane E. Waliser, ITPA/MSRC, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000.

Email: waliser@terra.msrc.sunysb.edu

Save
  • Arkin, P. A., and P. E. Ardanuy, 1989: Estimating climatic-scale precipitation from space: A review. J. Climate,2, 1229–1238.

  • Bretherton, C. S., C. Smith, and J. M. Wallace, 1992: An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data. J. Climate,5, 541–560.

  • Brooks, C. E. P., and N. Carruthers, 1953: Handbook of Statistical Methods in Meteorology. Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, 412 pp.

  • Cane, M. A., S. E. Zebiak, and S. C. Dolan, 1986: Experimental forecasts of El Nino. Nature,321, 827–832.

  • Chang, C. P., and H. Lim, 1988: Kelvin Wave-CISK: A possible mechanism for the 30–50 day oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci.,45, 1709–1720.

  • Chen, T.-C., and J. C. Alpert, 1990: Systematic errors in the annual and intraseasonal variations of the planetary-scale divergent circulation in NMC medium-range forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev.,118, 2607–2623.

  • Duchon, C. E., 1979: Lanczos filter in one and two dimensions. J. Appl. Meteor.,18, 1016–1022.

  • Emanuel, K. A., 1987: An air–sea interaction model of intraseasonal oscillations in the Tropics. J. Atmos. Sci.,44, 2324–2340.

  • Ferranti, L., T. N. Palmer, F. Molteni, and K. Klinker, 1990: Tropical–extratropical interaction associated with the 30–60 day oscillation and its impact on medium and extended range prediction. J. Atmos. Sci.,47, 2177–2199.

  • Gill, A. E., and E. M. Rasmusson, 1983: The 1982–83 climate anomaly in the equatorial Pacific. Nature,305, 229–234.

  • Graham, N. E., 1995: Simulation of recent global temperature trends. Science,267, 666–671.

  • ——, and T. P. Barnett, 1987: Sea surface temperature, surface wind divergence, and convection over tropical oceans. Science,238, 657–659.

  • ——, and ——, 1995: ENSOs and ENSO-related predictability. Part II: Northern Hemisphere 700-mb height predictions based on a hybrid coupled ENSO model. J. Climate,8, 544–549.

  • ——, J. Michaelsen, and T. P. Barnett, 1987: An investigation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle with statistical models. 1. Predictor field characteristics. J. Geophys. Res.,92, 14 251–14 270.

  • Gray, W. M., C. W. Landsea, P. W. Mielke Jr., and K. J. Berry, 1992:Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6–11 months in advance. Wea. Forecasting,7, 440–455.

  • Gruber, A., and A. F. Krueger, 1984: The status of the NOAA outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,65, 958–962.

  • Gutzler, D. S., and T. M. Wood, 1990: Structure of large-scale convection anomalies over tropical oceans. J. Climate,3, 483–496.

  • Hayashi, Y. Y., and A. Sumi, 1986: The 30–40 day oscillations simulated in an “Aqua-Planet” model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,64, 451–467.

  • Hendon, H. H., 1988: A simple model of the 40–50 day oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci.45, 569–584.

  • ——, and B. Liebmann, 1990a: A composite study of onset of the Australian summer monsoon. J. Atmos. Sci.,47, 2227–2240.

  • ——, and ——, 1990b: The intraseasonal (30–50 day) oscillation of the Australian summer monsoon. J. Atmos. Sci.,47, 2909–2923.

  • ——, and M. L. Salby, 1994: The life cycle of the Madden and Julian Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci.,51, 2225–2237.

  • ——, and J. Glick, 1997: Intraseasonal air–sea interaction in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. J. Climate,10, 647–661.

  • ——, B. Liebmann, M. Newman, J. D. Glick, and J. E. Schemm, 1999: Medium-range forecast errors associated with active episodes of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press.

  • Higgins, R. W., and K. C. Mo, 1997: Persistent North Pacific circulation anomalies and the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate,10, 223–244.

  • Janowiak, J. E., and P. A. Arkin, 1991: Rainfall variations in the Tropics during 1986–89, as estimated from observations of cloud-top temperature. J. Geophys. Res.,96 (Suppl.), 3359–3373.

  • Ji, M., A. Kumar, and A. Leetma, 1994: A multi-season climate forecast system at the National Meteorological Center. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,75, 569–577.

  • Jones, C., D. E. Waliser, and C. Gautier, 1998: The influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation on ocean surface heat fluxes and sea surface temperature. J. Climate,11, 1057–1072.

  • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,77, 437–471.

  • Kanamitsu, M., 1985: A study of the predictability of the ECMWF operational forecast model in the tropics. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,63, 779–804.

  • Kessler, W. S., M. J. McPhaden, and K. M. Weickmann, 1996: Forcing of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the equatorial Pacific. J. Geophys. Res.,100, 10 613–10 631.

  • Knutson, T. R., and K. M. Weickmann, 1987: The 30–60 day atmospheric oscillation: Composite life cycles of convection and circulation anomalies. Mon. Wea. Rev.,115, 1407–1436.

  • Kousky, V. E., and M. T. Kayano, 1993: Real-time monitoring of intraseasonal oscillations. Proc. 18th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Boulder, CO, NCEP/NOAA, 66–69.

  • Landsea, C. W., W. M. Gray, P. W. Mielke Jr., and K. J. Berry, 1994:Seasonal forecasting of Atlantic hurricane activity. Weather,49, 273–284.

  • Lau, K. M., and P. H. Chan, 1985: Aspects of the 40–50 day oscillation during the northern winter as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation. Mon. Wea. Rev.,113, 1889–1909.

  • ——, and ——, 1986: Aspects of the 40–50 day oscillation during the northern summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation. Mon. Wea. Rev.,114, 1354–1367.

  • ——, and T. J. Phillips, 1986: Coherent fluctuations of extratropical geopotential height and tropical convection in intraseasonal time scales. J. Atmos. Sci.,43, 1164–1181.

  • ——, and L. Peng, 1987: Origin of low-frequency (intraseasonal) oscillations in the tropical atmosphere. Part I: Basic theory. J. Atmos. Sci.,44, 950–972.

  • ——, and P. H. Chan, 1988: Intraseasonal and interannual variations of tropical convection: A possible link between the 40–50 day oscillation and ENSO? J. Atmos. Sci.,45, 506–521.

  • ——, and F. C. Chang, 1992: Tropical intraseasonal oscillation and its prediction by the NMC operational model. J. Climate,5, 1365–1378.

  • ——, and C. H. Sui, 1997: Mechanisms of short-term sea surface temperature regulation: Observations during TOGA COARE. J. Climate,10, 465–472.

  • Liebmann, B., and D. L. Hartmann, 1984: An observational study of tropical–midlatitude interaction on intraseasonal time scales during winter. J. Atmos. Sci.,41, 3333–3350.

  • Lin, X., and R. H. Johnson, 1996: Kinematic and thermodynamic characteristics of the flow over the western Pacific warm pool during TOGA COARE. J. Atmos. Sci.,53, 695–715.

  • Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1971: Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci.,28, 702–708.

  • ——, and ——, 1994: Observations of the 40–50 day tropical oscillation: A review. Mon. Wea. Rev.,122, 814–837.

  • Mason, S. J., L. Goddard, N. E. Graham, E. Yulaeva, L. Sun, and P. Arkin, 1999: The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Niño event. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.

  • McPhaden, M. J., and B. A. Taft, 1988: Dynamics of seasonal and intraseasonal variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,18, 1713–1732.

  • Morrissey, M. L., 1986: A statistical analysis of the relationships among rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation and the moisture budget during January–March 1979. Mon. Wea. Rev.,114, 931–942.

  • ——, and N. E. Graham, 1996: Recent trends in rain gauge precipitation measurements from the tropical Pacific: Evidence for an enhanced hydrologic cycle. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,77, 1207–1219.

  • Murakami, T., 1979: Large-scale aspects of deep convective activity over the GATE area. Mon. Wea. Rev.,107, 994–1013.

  • Nakazawa, T., 1995: Intraseasonal oscillations during the TOGA-COARE IOP. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,73, 305–319.

  • Neelin, J. D., I. M. Held, and K. H. Cook, 1987: Evaporation-wind feedback and low-frequency variability in the tropical atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci.,44, 2341–2348.

  • Nitta, T., and S. Yamada, 1989: Recent warming of the tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,67, 375–383.

  • Overland, J. E., and R. W. Preisendorfer, 1982: A significance test for principal components applied to a cyclone climatology. Mon. Wea. Rev.,110, 1–4.

  • Preisendorfer, R. W., F. W. Zwiers, and T. P. Barnett, 1981: Foundations of principal component selection rules. SIO Rep. 81-7, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 200 pp.

  • Rasmusson, E. M., and J. M. Wallace, 1983: Meteorological aspects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Science,222, 1195–1202.

  • Reynolds, C. A., P. Webster, and E. Kalnay, 1994: Random error growth in NMC’s global forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev.,122, 1281–1305.

  • Salby, M. L., and H. H. Hendon, 1994: Intraseasonal behavior of clouds, temperature and motion in the Tropics. J. Atmos. Sci.,51, 2207–2224.

  • ——, R. Garcia, and H. H. Hendon, 1994: Planetary circulations in the presence of climatological and wave-induced heating. J. Atmos. Sci.,51, 2344–2367.

  • Schemm, J. E., H. M. van den Dool, and S. Saha, 1996: A Multi-Year DERF Experiment at NCEP. Preprints, 11th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 47–49.

  • Slingo, J. M., and Coauthors, 1996: Intraseasonal oscillations in 15 atmospheric general circulation models: Results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject. Climate Dyn.,12, 325–357.

  • van den Dool, H. M., 1994: Long-range weather forecasts through numerical and empirical methods. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans,20, 247–270.

  • ——, and S. Saha, 1990: Frequency dependence in forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev.,118, 128–137.

  • von Storch, H., and J. Xu, 1990: Principal oscillation pattern analysis of the 30- to 60-day oscillation in the tropical troposphere. Climate Dyn.,4, 175–190.

  • Waliser, D. E., and N. E. Graham, 1993: Convective cloud systems and warm-pool SSTs: Coupled interactions and self-regulation. J. Geophys. Res.,98 (D7), 12 881–12 893.

  • ——, and W. Zhou, 1997: Removing satellite equatorial crossing time biases from the OLR and HRC datasets. J. Climate,10, 2125–2146.

  • ——, N. E. Graham, and C. Gautier, 1993: Comparison of the highly reflective cloud and outgoing longwave datasets for use in estimating tropical deep convection. J. Climate,6, 331–353.

  • ——, W. D. Collins, and S. P. Anderson, 1996: An Estimate of the surface shortwave cloud forcing over the western Pacific during TOGA COARE. Geophys. Res. Lett.,23, 519–522.

  • ——, K. M. Lau, and J. H. Kim, 1999: The influence of coupled sea surface temperatures on the Madden–Julian oscillation: A model perturbation experiment. J. Atmos. Sci.,56, 333–358.

  • Wang, B., and H. Rui, 1990a: Dynamics of the coupled moist Kelvin–Rossby wave on an equatorial beta plane. J. Atmos. Sci.,47, 397–413.

  • ——, and ——, 1990b: Synoptic climatology of transient tropical intraseasonal convection anomalies. Meteor. Atmos. Phys.,44, 43–61.

  • ——, and X. Xie, 1998: Coupled modes of the warm pool climate system. Part I: The role of air–sea interaction in maintaining Madden–Julian oscillation. J. Climate,11, 2116–2135.

  • Webster, P. J., and R. Lucas, 1992: TOGA COARE: The Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,73, 1377–1416.

  • Weickmann, K. M., 1983: Intraseasonal circulation and outgoing longwave radiation modes during Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev.,111, 1838–1858.

  • ——, 1991: El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Madden–Julian (30–60 day) oscillations during 1981–1982. J. Geophys. Res.,96, 3187–3195.

  • ——, G. R. Lussky, and J. E. Kutzbach, 1985: Intraseasonal (30–60 day) fluctuations of outgoing longwave radiation and 250-mb stream function during northern winter. Mon. Wea. Rev.,113, 941–961.

  • Weller, R. A., and S. A. Anderson, 1996: Temporal variability and mean values of the surface meteorology and air–sea fluxes in the western equatorial Pacific warm pool during TOGA COARE. J. Climate,9, 1959–1990.

  • Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,78, 2539–2558.

  • Yasunari, T., 1979: Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,57, 227–242.

  • ——, 1980: A quasi-stationary appearance of the 30–40 day period in the cloudiness fluctuations during the summer monsoon over India. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,58, 225–229.

  • Yoo, J.-M., and J. A. Carton, 1988: Outgoing longwave radiation derived rainfall in the tropical Atlantic, with emphasis on 1983–84. J. Climate,1, 1047–1054.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 403 109 8
PDF Downloads 153 60 7