On Interpretation of Probabilistic Climate Forecasts

D. S. Wilks Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York

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Corresponding author address: Dr. D. S. Wilks, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-1901.

Corresponding author address: Dr. D. S. Wilks, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-1901.

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  • Barnston, A. G., M. H. Glantz, and Y. He, 1999: Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997–98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,80, 217–243.

  • Briggs, W. M., and D. S. Wilks, 1996a: Estimating monthly and seasonal distributions of temperature and precipitation using the new CPC long-range forecasts. J. Climate,9, 818–826.

  • ——, and ——, 1996b: Extension of the CPC long-lead temperature and precipitation outlooks to general weather statistics. J. Climate,9, 3496–3504.

  • Changnon, S. A., J. M. Changnon, and D. Changnon, 1995: Uses and applications of climate forecasts for power utilities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,76, 711–720.

  • Dischel, B., cited 1998: The fledgling weather market takes off. Part 1: Weather sensitivity, weather derivatives and a pricing model. [Available online at http://www.adtrading.com/adt32/weather1.hts.].

  • Johnson, N. L., S. Kotz, and N. Balakrishnan, 1994: Continuous Univariate Distributions—1. John Wiley and Sons, 756 pp.

  • Kim, Y.-O., and R. N. Palmer, 1997: Value of seasonal flow forecasts in Bayesian stochastic programming. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage.,123, 327–335.

  • Knox, J. B., H. Moses, and M. C. MacCracken, 1985: Summary report of the workshop on the interactions of climate and energy. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,66, 174–183.

  • Mason, S. J., L. Goddard, N. E. Graham, E. Yulaeva, L. Sun, and P. A. Arkin, 1999: The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Niño event. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,80, 1853–1873.

  • Mjelde, J. W., H. S. J. Hill, and J. F. Griffiths, 1998: A review of current evidence on climate forecasts and their economic effects in agriculture. Amer. J. Agric. Econ.,80, 1089–1095.

  • O’Lenic, E. A., 1994: Operational long-lead outlooks of seasonal mean temperature and precipitation. Technical Procedures Bulletin 418, NOAA/CPC, 30 pp.

  • Press, W. H., B. P. Flannery, S. A. Teukolsky, and W. T. Vetterling, 1986: Numerical Recipes: The Art of Scientific Computing. Cambridge University Press, 818 pp.

  • Thom, H. C. S., 1958: A note on the gamma distribution. Mon. Wea. Rev.,86, 117–122.

  • Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. International Geophysics Series, Vol. 59, Academic Press, 464 pp.

  • ——, 2000: Diagnostic verification of the Climate Prediction Center long-lead outlooks, 1995–98. J. Climate, in press.

  • ——, and K. L. Eggleston, 1992: Estimating monthly and seasonal precipitation distributions using the 30- and 90-day outlooks. J. Climate,5, 252–259.

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