Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Seasonality in an Empirically Derived Markov Model of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Scot D. Johnson Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

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David S. Battisti Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

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E. S. Sarachik Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

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Print Publication:
15 Sep 2000
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3327:SIAEDM>2.0.CO;2
Page(s):
3327–3335
Restricted access

Abstract

An empirically derived linear dynamical model is constructed using the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set enhanced sea surface temperature data in the tropical Pacific during the period 1956–95. Annual variation in the Markov model is sought using various tests. A comparison of Niño-3.4 forecast skill using a seasonally varying Markov model to forecast skill in which the seasonal transition matrices are applied during opposite times of the year from which they were derived is made. As a result, it is determined that the seasonal transition matrices are probably not interchangeable, indicating that the Markov model is not annually constant. Stochastic forcing, which has been hypothesized to exhibit seasonality, is therefore not the sole source of the annual variation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics and the phase locking of ENSO events to peak during November.

Corresponding author address: Scot Johnson, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstr. 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany.

Abstract

An empirically derived linear dynamical model is constructed using the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set enhanced sea surface temperature data in the tropical Pacific during the period 1956–95. Annual variation in the Markov model is sought using various tests. A comparison of Niño-3.4 forecast skill using a seasonally varying Markov model to forecast skill in which the seasonal transition matrices are applied during opposite times of the year from which they were derived is made. As a result, it is determined that the seasonal transition matrices are probably not interchangeable, indicating that the Markov model is not annually constant. Stochastic forcing, which has been hypothesized to exhibit seasonality, is therefore not the sole source of the annual variation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics and the phase locking of ENSO events to peak during November.

Corresponding author address: Scot Johnson, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstr. 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany.

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