Impact of CO2-Induced Warming on Hurricane Intensities as Simulated in a Hurricane Model with Ocean Coupling

Thomas R. Knutson NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

Search for other papers by Thomas R. Knutson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Robert E. Tuleya NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

Search for other papers by Robert E. Tuleya in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Weixing Shen Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, Rhode Island

Search for other papers by Weixing Shen in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Isaac Ginis Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, Rhode Island

Search for other papers by Isaac Ginis in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

This study explores how a carbon dioxide (CO2) warming–induced enhancement of hurricane intensity could be altered by the inclusion of hurricane–ocean coupling. Simulations are performed using a coupled version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane prediction system in an idealized setting with highly simplified background flow fields. The large-scale atmospheric boundary conditions for these high-resolution experiments (atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles and SSTs) are derived from control and high-CO2 climatologies obtained from a low-resolution (R30) global coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model. The high-CO2 conditions are obtained from years 71–120 of a transient +1% yr−1 CO2-increase experiment with the global model. The CO2-induced SST changes from the global climate model range from +2.2° to +2.7°C in the six tropical storm basins studied. In the storm simulations, ocean coupling significantly reduces the intensity of simulated tropical cyclones, in accord with previous studies. However, the net impact of ocean coupling on the simulated CO2 warming–induced intensification of tropical cyclones is relatively minor. For both coupled and uncoupled simulations, the percentage increase in maximum surface wind speeds averages about 5%–6% over the six basins and varies from about 3% to 10% across the different basins. Both coupled and uncoupled simulations also show strong increases of near-storm precipitation under high-CO2 climate conditions, relative to control (present day) conditions.

Corresponding author address: Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, P.O. Box 308, Forrestal Campus, U.S. Rt. 1, Princeton, NJ 08542.Email: tk@gfdl.gov

Abstract

This study explores how a carbon dioxide (CO2) warming–induced enhancement of hurricane intensity could be altered by the inclusion of hurricane–ocean coupling. Simulations are performed using a coupled version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane prediction system in an idealized setting with highly simplified background flow fields. The large-scale atmospheric boundary conditions for these high-resolution experiments (atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles and SSTs) are derived from control and high-CO2 climatologies obtained from a low-resolution (R30) global coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model. The high-CO2 conditions are obtained from years 71–120 of a transient +1% yr−1 CO2-increase experiment with the global model. The CO2-induced SST changes from the global climate model range from +2.2° to +2.7°C in the six tropical storm basins studied. In the storm simulations, ocean coupling significantly reduces the intensity of simulated tropical cyclones, in accord with previous studies. However, the net impact of ocean coupling on the simulated CO2 warming–induced intensification of tropical cyclones is relatively minor. For both coupled and uncoupled simulations, the percentage increase in maximum surface wind speeds averages about 5%–6% over the six basins and varies from about 3% to 10% across the different basins. Both coupled and uncoupled simulations also show strong increases of near-storm precipitation under high-CO2 climate conditions, relative to control (present day) conditions.

Corresponding author address: Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, P.O. Box 308, Forrestal Campus, U.S. Rt. 1, Princeton, NJ 08542.Email: tk@gfdl.gov

Save
  • Bender, M. A., and I. Ginis, 2000: Real-case simulations of hurricane–ocean interaction using a high-resolution coupled model: Effects on hurricane intensity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 , 917946.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • ——, ——, and Kurihara, Y., 1993: Numerical simulations of tropical cyclone–ocean interaction with a high-resolution coupled model. J. Geophys. Res., 98 , 23 24523 263.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Elsberry, R. L., 1995: Tropical cyclone motion. Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, R. L. Elsberry, Ed., WMO Tech. Doc. No. TCP-38,. 106197.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Emanuel, K. A., 1987: The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature, 326 , 483485.

  • ——,. 1999: Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity. Nature, 401 , 665669.

  • Ginis, I., 1995: Ocean response to tropical cyclones. Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, R. L. Elsberry, Ed., WMO Tech. Doc. No. TCP-38,. 198260.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Henderson-Sellers, A., and Coauthors, 1998: Tropical cyclones and global climate change: A post-IPCC assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79 , 1938.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Holland, G. J., 1997: The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 54 , 25192541.

  • Knutson, T. R., and S. Manabe, 1998: Model assessment of decadal variability and trends in the tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Climate, 11 , 22732296.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • ——, and Tuleya, R. E., 1999: Increased hurricane intensities with CO2-induced warming as simulated using the GFDL hurricane prediction system. Climate Dyn., 15 , 503519.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • ——, ——, and Kurihara, Y., 1998: Simulated increase of hurricane intensities in a CO2-warmed climate. Science, 279 , 10181020.

  • ——, Delworth, T. L., K. W. Dixon, and R. J. Stouffer, 1999: Model assessment of regional surface temperature trends (1949–1997). J. Geophys. Res., 104 , 30 98130 996.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kurihara, Y., R. E. Tuleya, and M. A. Bender, 1998: The GFDL hurricane prediction system and its performance in the 1995 hurricane season. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126 , 13061322.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Landsea, C. W., N. Nicholls, W. M. Gray, and L. A. Avila, 1996: Downward trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the past five decades. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23 , 16971700.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Manabe, S., R. J. Stouffer, M. J. Spelman, and K. Bryan, 1991: Transient response of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2. Part I: Annual mean response. J. Climate, 4 , 785818.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schade, L. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 1999: The ocean's effect on the intensity of tropical cyclones: Results from a simple coupled atmosphere–ocean model. J. Atmos. Sci., 56 , 642651.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schimel, D., and Coauthors,. 1996: Radiative forcing of climate change. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press,. 65131.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shen, W., R. E. Tuleya, and I. Ginis, 2000: A sensitivity study of the thermodynamic environment on GFDL model hurricane intensity: implications for global warming. J. Climate, 13 , 109121.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Siegel, S., and N. J. Castellan, 1988: Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences,. 2d ed. McGraw-Hill, 399 pp.

  • Walsh, K. J. E., and B. F. Ryan, 2000: Tropical cyclone intensity near Australia as a result of climate change. J. Climate, 13 , 30293036.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wentz, F. J., C. Gentemann, D. Smith, and D. Chelton, 2000: Satellite measurements of sea surface temperature through clouds. Science, 288 , 847850.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1260 606 172
PDF Downloads 476 129 18