• Ambaum, M. H. P., , B. J. Hoskins, , and D. B. Stephenson, 2001: Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation? J. Climate, 14 , 34953507.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barnston, A. G., , and R. E. Livezey, 1987: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115 , 10831126.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Coe, R., , and R. D. Stern, 1982: Fitting models to daily rainfall data. J. Appl. Meteor., 21 , 10241031.

  • Conradsen, K., , L. B. Nielsen, , and L. P. Prahm, 1984: Review of Weibull statistics for estimation of wind speed distributions. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 23 , 11731183.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cox, D. R., , and D. V. Hinkley, 1974: Theoretical Statistics. Chapman and Hall, 511 pp.

  • Dobson, A. J., 1990: An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models. Chapman and Hall, 174 pp.

  • Houghton, J. T., , Y. Dina, , J. Griggs, , M. Nosuer, , T. Varider Linden, , D. Xiaosu, , K. Maskell, , and C. A. Johnson, Eds.,. 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, 892 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hurrell, J. W., 1995: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation—Regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269 , 676679.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jones, P. D., , E. B. Horton, , C. K. Folland, , M. Hulme, , D. E. Parker, , and T. A. Basnett, 1999: The use of indices to identify changes in climatic extremes. Climatic Changes, 42 , 131149.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kalnay, E. M., and Coauthors. 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77 , 437471.

  • Karl, T. R., , N. Nicholls, , and A. Ghazi, Eds.,. 1999: Weather and Climate Extremes. Kluwer Academic, 356 pp.

  • Katz, R. W., , and B. G. Brown, 1992: Extreme events in a changing climate are more important than averages. Climatic Change, 21 , 289302.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McCullagh, P., , and J. A. Nelder, 1989: Generalized Linear Models. 2d ed. Chapman and Hall, 532 pp.

  • Mo, K. C., , and R. E. Livezey, 1986: Tropical–extratropical geopotential height teleconnections during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114 , 24882515.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nelder, J. A., , and R. W. M. Wedderburn, 1972: Generalized linear models. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 135A , 370384.

  • Rodó, X., , E. Baert, , and F. A. Comín, 1997: Variations in seasonal rainfall in Southern Europe during the present century: Relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Climate Dyn., 13 , 275284.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stern, R. D., , and R. Coe, 1984: A model fitting analysis of daily rainfall data. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 147A , 134.

  • Thompson, D. W. J., , and J. M. Wallace, 1998: The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 , 12971300.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tuller, S. E., , and A. C. Brett, 1984: The characteristics of wind velocity that favor the fitting of a Weibull distribution in wind speed analysis. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 23 , 124134.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Verkaik, J. W., 2000a: Documentatie windmetingen in Nederland (Documentation on wind speed measurements in the Netherlands). Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Institut Tech. Report, 41 pp. [Available online at http://www.knmi.nl/samenw/hydra/documents/docum0.htm.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Verkaik, J. W., . 2000b: Evaluation of two gustiness models for exposure correction calculation. J. Appl. Meteor., 39 , 16131626.

  • Yan, Z., , J. Ji, , and D. Ye, 1990: Northern Hemispheric summer climatic jump in the 1960s. Part 1—Rainfall and temperature. Sci. China, 33B , 10921101.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yan, Z., , and C. Yang, 2000: Extreme climate changes in China during 1950–1997 (in Chinese). Climate Environ. Res., 5 , 267272.

  • Yan, Z., , P. D. Jones, , A. Moberg, , H. Bergstrom, , T. D. Davies, , and C. Yang, 2001: Recent trends in weather and seasonal cycles, an analysis of daily data from Europe and China. J. Geophys. Res., 106 ((D6),) 51235138.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yang, C., , Z. Yan, , and Y. Yu, 2001: Changes in observed and GCM climate extremes in China. Global Planet. Change, in press.

  • Zeng, Z., , Z. Yan, , and D. Ye, 2001: The regions with the most significant temperature trends during the last century. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18 , 481496.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zwiers, F. W., , and V. V. Kharin, 1998: Changes in extremes of climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO2 doubling. J. Climate, 11 , 22002222.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 266 266 13
PDF Downloads 111 111 14

An Analysis of Daily Maximum Wind Speed in Northwestern Europe Using Generalized Linear Models

View More View Less
  • 1 CLIVAR IPO, Southampton Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
  • | 2 Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, United Kingdom
  • | 3 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, United Kingdom
© Get Permissions Rent on DeepDyve
Restricted access

Abstract

The basic climatological pattern and recent trends in daily maximum wind speed (DMWS) for the region 47.5°–65°N and 12.5°W–22.5°E are studied using gamma distributions within a generalized linear model. Between 1958 and 1998, DMWS has increased over the ocean in winter but weakened over continental Europe in summer. Large-scale circulation changes such as those of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) account for the strengthening wind over the ocean. Global warming may have impacted the regional wind climate. In particular, Southern Hemisphere temperature exhibits a significant effect on the distinct oceanic and continental trends in DMWS. It is suggested that the steady warming of the Southern Hemisphere during the last few decades may have forced the North Atlantic storm track to shift in such a way that storms are enhanced toward the northwestern oceanic area, but weakened throughout most of the European continent.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Richard Chandler, Dept. of Statistical Science, University College of London, Gower St., London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom. Email: richard@stats.ucl.ac.uk

Abstract

The basic climatological pattern and recent trends in daily maximum wind speed (DMWS) for the region 47.5°–65°N and 12.5°W–22.5°E are studied using gamma distributions within a generalized linear model. Between 1958 and 1998, DMWS has increased over the ocean in winter but weakened over continental Europe in summer. Large-scale circulation changes such as those of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) account for the strengthening wind over the ocean. Global warming may have impacted the regional wind climate. In particular, Southern Hemisphere temperature exhibits a significant effect on the distinct oceanic and continental trends in DMWS. It is suggested that the steady warming of the Southern Hemisphere during the last few decades may have forced the North Atlantic storm track to shift in such a way that storms are enhanced toward the northwestern oceanic area, but weakened throughout most of the European continent.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Richard Chandler, Dept. of Statistical Science, University College of London, Gower St., London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom. Email: richard@stats.ucl.ac.uk

Save