• Barlow, M., S. Nigam, and E. H. Berbery, 1998: Evolution of the North American monsoon system. J. Climate, 11 , 22382257.

  • Barnett, T. P., R. Saravanan, N. Schneider, D. Dommenget, and M. Latif, 1999: Origins of the midlatitude Pacific decadal variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26 , 14531456.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Borchert, J. R., 1971: The Dust Bowl in the 1970s. Ann. Assoc. Amer. Geogr., 61 , 122.

  • Bunkers, M. J., J. R. Miller Jr., and A. T. DeGaetano, 1996: An examination of El Niño–La Niña related precipitation and temperature anomalies across the Northern Plains. J. Climate, 9 , 147160.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Carlson, R. E., D. P. Todey, and S. E. Taylor, 1996: Midwestern corn yield and weather in relation to extremes of the Southern Oscillation. J. Prod. Agric., 9 , 347352.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cleveland, W. S., 1979: Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 74 , 829836.

  • COAPS, cited 2002: ENSO Index according to JMA SSTA (1868–present). [Available online at http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/∼legler/jma_index1.shtml.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Conover, W. J., 1998: Practical Nonparametric Statistics. 3d ed. Wiley and Sons, 584 pp.

  • Dai, A., I. Y. Fung, and A. D. Del Genio, 1997: Surface observed global land precipitation variations during 1900–88. J. Climate, 10 , 29432962.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, and T. R. Karl, 1998: Global variations in droughts and wet spells: 1900–1995. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 , 33673370.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Diaz, H. F., 1983: Some aspects of major dry and wet periods in the contiguous United States. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22 , 316.

  • Dole, R. M., 2000: Prospects for predicting droughts in the United States. Drought: A Global Assessment, D. A. Wilhite, Ed., Vol. 1, Routledge, 83–99.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Douglas, A. V., and P. J. Englehart, 1989: Relationship between summertime ridge position and continental rainfall regimes. Proc. 14th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, La Jolla, CA, U. S. Dept. of Commerce/NOAA, 108–114.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Douglas, A. V., and P. J. Englehart, 2002: Warm season rainfall in eastern Mexico: Interannual variability of tropical cyclone and nontropical cyclone rainfall as modulated by ENSO and the AMO. Proc. 26th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, La Jolla, CA, U. S. Dept. of Commerce/NOAA. [Available online at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/proceedings/cdw26_proceedings/Douglas_Englehart.html.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Edgington, E. S., 1995: Randomization Tests. 3d ed. Marcel Dekker, 424 pp.

  • Elsner, J. B., and A. B. Kara, 1999: Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society. Oxford University Press, 488 pp.

  • Enfield, D. B., A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and P. J. Trimble, 2001: The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U. S. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 , 20772081.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Englehart, P. J., and A. V. Douglas, 2002a: Mexico's summer rainfall patterns: An analysis of regional modes and changes in their teleconnectivity. Atmosfera, 15 , 147164.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Englehart, P. J., and A. V. Douglas, 2002b: On some characteristic variations in warm season precipitation over the central United States (1910–2000). J. Geophys. Res., 107 (D16) 4286, doi:10.1029/2001JD000972.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gershunov, A., and T. P. Barnett, 1998: Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79 , 27152725.

  • Glantz, M. H., and R. W. Katz, 1977: When is a drought a drought? Nature, 267 , 192193.

  • Gu, D., and S. G. H. Philander, 1997: Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the Tropics and extratropics. Science, 275 , 805807.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Higgins, R. W., Y. Yao, and X. Wang, 1997: Influence of the North American monsoon system on the U. S. summer precipitation regime. J. Climate, 10 , 26002622.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hu, Q., and S. Feng, 2001: Variations of teleconnection of ENSO and interannual variations in summer rainfall in the central United States. J. Climate, 14 , 24692480.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Karl, T. R., 1983: Some spatial characteristics of drought duration in the United States. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22 , 13561366.

  • Karl, T. R., and R. W. Knight, 1998: Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79 , 231241.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Karl, T. R., F. Quinlan, and D. S. Ezell, 1987: Drought termination and amelioration: Its climatological probability. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 26 , 11981209.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Karl, T. R., R. W. Knight, D. W. Easterling, and R. G. Quayle, 1996: Indices of climate change for the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77 , 279292.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kerr, R. A., 2000: A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries. Science, 288 , 19841986.

  • Klein, W. H., 1957: Principal tracks and mean frequencies of cyclones and anticyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. Res. Paper 40, U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington, DC, 60 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lyon, B. F., and R. M. Dole, 1995: A diagnostic comparison of the 1980 and 1988 U.S. summer heat wave–droughts. J. Climate, 8 , 16581676.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, S. R. Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 , 10691079.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mauget, S. A., and D. R. Upchurch, 1999: El Niño and La Niña climate and agricultural impacts over the continental United States. J. Prod. Agric., 12 , 203214.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mo, K. C., 2000: Intraseasonal modulation of summer precipitation over North America. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 , 14901505.

  • Namias, J., 1955: Some meteorological aspects of drought with special reference to the summers of 1952–54 over the United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 83 , 199205.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Namias, J., 1982: Anatomy of Great Plains protracted heat waves (especially the 1980 U.S. summer drought). Mon. Wea. Rev., 110 , 824838.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Namias, J., 1983: Some causes of United States drought. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22 , 3039.

  • Namias, J., 1991: Spring and summer 1988 drought over the contiguous United States—Causes and prediction. J. Climate, 4 , 5465.

  • NCAR, cited 2002: Trenberth's Northern Hemisphere monthly sea-level pressure grids, continuing from 1899. [Available online at http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds010.1/.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • North, G. R., T. L. Bell, R. F. Cahalan, and F. J. Moeng, 1982: Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110 , 699706.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Oglesby, R. J., and D. J. Erickson, 1989: Soil moisture and the persistence of North American drought. J. Climate, 2 , 13621380.

  • Pal, J. S., and E. A. B. Eltahir, 2001: Pathways relating soil moisture conditions to future summer rainfall within a model of the land–atmosphere system. J. Climate, 14 , 12271242.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rajagopalan, B., E. Cook, U. Lall, and B. K. Ray, 2000: Spatiotemporal variability of ENSO and SST teleconnections to summer drought over the United States during the twentieth century. J. Climate, 13 , 42444255.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter, 1982: Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110 , 354384.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1986: North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mon. Wea. Rev., 114 , 23522362.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Skaggs, R. H., 1975: Drought in the United States, 1931–40. Ann. Assoc. Amer. Geogr., 65 , 391402.

  • Ting, M., and H. Wang, 1997: Summertime U.S. precipitation variability and its relation to Pacific sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 10 , 18531873.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trenberth, K. E., and D. A. Paolino Jr., 1980: The Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure data set: Trends, errors and discontinuities. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108 , 855872.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trenberth, K. E., and C. J. Guillemot, 1996: Physical processes involved in the 1988 drought and 1993 floods in North America. J. Climate, 9 , 12881298.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trenberth, K. E., G. W. Branstator, and P. A. Arkin, 1988: Origins of the 1988 North American drought. Science, 242 , 16401645.

  • Wilhite, D. A., 2000: Drought as a natural hazard: Concepts and definitions. Drought: A Global Assessment, D. A. Wilhite, Ed., Vol. 1, Routledge, 3–18.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wilhite, D. A., and M. H. Glantz, 1985: Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions. Water Int., 10 , 111120.

  • Wilhite, D. A., and O. Vanyarkho, 2000: Drought: Pervasive impacts of a creeping phenomenon. Drought: A Global Assessment, D. A. Wilhite, Ed., Vol. 1, Routledge, 245–255.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Woodhouse, C. A., and J. T. Overpeck, 1998: 2000 years of drought variability in the central United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79 , 26932713.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wright, P. B., 1979: Persistence of rainfall anomalies in the central Pacific. Nature, 277 , 371374.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 170 52 1
PDF Downloads 60 38 2

Assessing Warm Season Drought Episodes in the Central United States

View More View Less
  • 1 Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Creighton University, Omaha, Nebraska
Restricted access

Abstract

Recurrent drought episodes are a signature feature of the climate of the central United States. Using a particular set of definitions, this study examines some of the basic statistical features of previous drought episodes. It shows that there are distinct intraseasonal preferences for the onset of long periods of dry weather and that these preferences vary regionally in ways that are consistent with seasonal climate controls. Evaluation of past drought occurrences indicates that there is no simple or strong teleconnection between drought and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Individual drought episodes certainly evolve with unique character. However, based on analysis of large-scale variations in sea level pressure patterns, evidence is presented for systematic links between drought and the interdecadal climate mode often referred to as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

Abstract

Recurrent drought episodes are a signature feature of the climate of the central United States. Using a particular set of definitions, this study examines some of the basic statistical features of previous drought episodes. It shows that there are distinct intraseasonal preferences for the onset of long periods of dry weather and that these preferences vary regionally in ways that are consistent with seasonal climate controls. Evaluation of past drought occurrences indicates that there is no simple or strong teleconnection between drought and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Individual drought episodes certainly evolve with unique character. However, based on analysis of large-scale variations in sea level pressure patterns, evidence is presented for systematic links between drought and the interdecadal climate mode often referred to as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

Save