Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Long-Term Ice Variability in Arctic Marginal Seas

Igor V. Polyakov International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

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Genrikh V. Alekseev Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia

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Roman V. Bekryaev International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska
Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia

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Uma S. Bhatt International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

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Roger Colony International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

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Mark A. Johnson Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

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Valerii P. Karklin Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia

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David Walsh International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

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Alexander V. Yulin Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia

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Print Publication:
15 Jun 2003
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2078:LIVIAM>2.0.CO;2
Page(s):
2078–2085
Restricted access

Abstract

Examination of records of fast ice thickness (1936–2000) and ice extent (1900–2000) in the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas provide evidence that long-term ice thickness and extent trends are small and generally not statistically significant, while trends for shorter records are not indicative of the long-term tendencies due to large-amplitude low-frequency variability. The ice variability in these seas is dominated by a multidecadal, low-frequency oscillation (LFO) and (to a lesser degree) by higher-frequency decadal fluctuations. The LFO signal decays eastward from the Kara Sea where it is strongest. In the Chukchi Sea ice variability is dominated by decadal fluctuations, and there is no evidence of the LFO. This spatial pattern is consistent with the air temperature–North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index correlation pattern, with maximum correlation in the near-Atlantic region, which decays toward the North Pacific. Sensitivity analysis shows that dynamical forcing (wind or surface currents) dominates ice-extent variations in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas. Variability of Kara Sea ice extent is governed primarily by thermodynamic factors.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Igor Polyakov, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 757335, Fairbanks, AK 99775. Email: igor@iarc.uaf.edu

Abstract

Examination of records of fast ice thickness (1936–2000) and ice extent (1900–2000) in the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas provide evidence that long-term ice thickness and extent trends are small and generally not statistically significant, while trends for shorter records are not indicative of the long-term tendencies due to large-amplitude low-frequency variability. The ice variability in these seas is dominated by a multidecadal, low-frequency oscillation (LFO) and (to a lesser degree) by higher-frequency decadal fluctuations. The LFO signal decays eastward from the Kara Sea where it is strongest. In the Chukchi Sea ice variability is dominated by decadal fluctuations, and there is no evidence of the LFO. This spatial pattern is consistent with the air temperature–North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index correlation pattern, with maximum correlation in the near-Atlantic region, which decays toward the North Pacific. Sensitivity analysis shows that dynamical forcing (wind or surface currents) dominates ice-extent variations in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas. Variability of Kara Sea ice extent is governed primarily by thermodynamic factors.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Igor Polyakov, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 757335, Fairbanks, AK 99775. Email: igor@iarc.uaf.edu

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