• Bartlett, M., 1935: Some aspects of the time-correlation problem in regard to tests of significance. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 98 , 536543.

  • Christy, J. R., , D. E. Parker, , S. J. Brown, , I. Macadam, , M. Stendel, , and W. B. Norris, 2001: Differential trends in tropical sea surface and atmospheric temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 , 183186.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Collen, B., 1992: South Pacific historical climate network. Climate station histories. Part 1: Southwest Pacific region. New Zealand Meteorological Service, 113 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Diaz, H. F., , C. K. Folland, , T. Manabe, , D. E. Parker, , R. W. Reynolds, , and S. D. Woodruff, 2002: Workshop on advances in the use of historical marine climate data (Boulder, Co., USA, 29th Jan–1st Feb 2002). WMO Bull., 51 , 377380.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Folland, C. K., , and D. E. Parker, 1995: Correction of instrumental biases in historical sea surface temperature data. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121 , 319367.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Folland, C. K., , and M. J. Salinger, 1995: Surface temperature trends in New Zealand and the surrounding ocean, 1871–1993. Int. J. Climatol., 15 , 11951218.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Folland, C. K., , and T. R. Karl, 2001: Recent rates of warming in the marine environment meet controversy. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 82 , 453 and 4589.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Folland, C. K., and Coauthors. 1990: Observed Climate Variations and Change. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 195–238.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Folland, C. K., , M. J. Salinger, , and N. Rayner, 1997: A comparison of annual South Pacific island and ocean surface temperatures. Wea. Climate, 17 (1) 2342.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Folland, C. K., and Coauthors. 2001: Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 , 26212624.

  • Folland, C. K., , J. A. Renwick, , M. J. Salinger, , and A. B. Mullan, 2002: Relative influences of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO on the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29 .1643, doi:10.1029/2001GL014201.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goulding, N., 1993: Temperature variability in the South Pacific: A regional examination of its nature and sources. M.S. thesis, Dept. of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Auckland, 217 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jones, P. D., , T. J. Osborn, , and K. R. Briffa, 1997: Estimating sampling errors in large-scale temperature averages. J. Climate, 10 , 25482568.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jones, P. D., , T. J. Osborn, , K. R. Briffa, , C. K. Folland, , E. B. Horton, , L. V. Alexander, , D. E. Parker, , and N. Rayner, 2001: Adjusting for sampling density in grid box land and ocean surface temperature time series. J. Geophys. Res., 106 , 33713380.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors. 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77 , 437471.

  • Kent, E. C., , P. G. Challenor, , and P. K. Taylor, 1999: A statistical determination of the random observational errors present in voluntary observing ships meteorological reports. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 16 , 905914.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kiladis, G. N., , H. von Storch, , and H. van Loon, 1989: Origin of the South Pacific convergence zone. J. Climate, 2 , 11851195.

  • Mantua, N. J., , S. R. Hare, , Y. Zhang, , J. M. Wallace, , and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 , 10691079.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McPhaden, M. J., , and D. Zhang, 2002: Slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation of the upper Pacific Ocean. Nature, 415 , 603608.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mullan, A. B., 1995: Nonlinear effects of the Southern Oscillation–climate relationships for New Zealand. Int. J. Climatol., 15 , 13651386.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Parker, D. E., , T. Legg, , and C. K. Folland, 1992: A new daily central England temperature series, 1772–1991. Int. J. Climatol., 12 , 317342.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Parker, D. E., , C. K. Folland, , and M. Jackson, 1995: Marine surface temperature: Observed variations and data requirements. Climatic Change, 31 , 559600.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Power, S., , T. Casey, , C. K. Folland, , A. Colman, , and V. Mehta, 1999: Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Climate Dyn., 15 , 319323.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rayner, N. A., , D. E. Parker, , E. B. Horton, , C. K. Folland, , L. V. Alexander, , D. P. Rowell, , E. C. Kent, , and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108 .4407, doi:10.1209/2002JD002670.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rhoades, D. A., , and M. J. Salinger, 1993: Adjustment of temperature and rainfall records for site changes. Int. J. Climatol., 13 , 899913.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ropelewski, C. F., , and P. D. Jones, 1987: An extension of the Tahiti–Darwin Southern Oscillation index. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115 , 21612165.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Salinger, M. J., , B. B. Fitzharris, , J. E. Hay, , P. D. Jones, , J. P. MacVeigh, , and I. Schmidely-Leleu, 1995: Climate trends in the South-West Pacific. Int. J. Climatol., 15 , 285302.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Salinger, M. J., and Coauthors. 1996: Observed variability and change in climate and sea level in Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific. Greenhouse: Coping with Climate Change, G. I. Pearman and M. Manning, Eds., CSIRO Publishing, 100–126.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Salinger, M. J., , J. A. Renwick, , and A. B. Mullan, 2001: Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and South Pacific climate. Int. J. Climatol., 21 , 17051721.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Snedecor, G. W., , and W. G. Cochrane, 1973: Statistical Methods. Iowa State University Press, 593 pp.

  • Streten, N. A., , and J. W. Zillman, 1984: Climate of the South Pacific Ocean. World Survey of Climatology, H. van Loon, Ed., Vol. 15, Elsevier, 263–429.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vincent, D. G., , and P. L. Silva Dias, 1998: Pacific Ocean. Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere, Meteor. Monogr., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101–117.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yevjevich, V., 1972: Probability and Statistics in Hydrology. Water Resources Publications, vii and 302 pp.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 186 186 18
PDF Downloads 62 62 4

Trends and Variations in South Pacific Island and Ocean Surface Temperatures

View More View Less
  • 1 Hadley Centre, Met Office, Bracknell, Berkshire, United Kingdom
  • | 2 National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland, New Zealand
  • | 3 School Assessment and Reporting, New South Wales Department of Education and Training, Bankstown, New South Wales, Australia
  • | 4 Hadley Centre, Met Office, Bracknell, Berkshire, United Kingdom
© Get Permissions Rent on DeepDyve
Restricted access

Abstract

An analysis of temperature variability and trends in the South Pacific, mainly in the twentieth century, using data from 40 island stations and optimally interpolated sea surface and night marine air temperature data is presented. The last-named dataset is new and contains improved corrections for changes in the height of thermometer screens as ships have become larger. It is shown that the South Pacific convergence zone plays a pivotal role in both variability and trends in all three datasets. Island, collocated sea surface temperature, and night marine air temperature time series for four large constituent regions are created and analyzed. These have been corrected for artificial changes in variance due to changes in the availability of constituent island stations whose intrinsic variance varies from station to station. The method is described in detail. Objective estimates of uncertainty in the sea surface temperature data are also provided. The results extend previous work, showing that annual and seasonal surface ocean and island air temperatures have increased throughout the South Pacific. Variations in trends in the island and marine data show reasonable consistency, with distinctly different patterns of multidecadal change in the four regions. However, a notable inconsistency is the recent lack of warming in night marine air temperature in one of the tropical regions relative to sea surface temperature, with signs of this effect in a second tropical region. Another tropical region near the South Pacific convergence zone shows recent strong warming in the island data but not in the marine data.

Corresponding author address: Prof. Chris K. Folland, Hadley Centre, Met Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SY, United Kingdom. Email: chris.folland@metoffice.com

Abstract

An analysis of temperature variability and trends in the South Pacific, mainly in the twentieth century, using data from 40 island stations and optimally interpolated sea surface and night marine air temperature data is presented. The last-named dataset is new and contains improved corrections for changes in the height of thermometer screens as ships have become larger. It is shown that the South Pacific convergence zone plays a pivotal role in both variability and trends in all three datasets. Island, collocated sea surface temperature, and night marine air temperature time series for four large constituent regions are created and analyzed. These have been corrected for artificial changes in variance due to changes in the availability of constituent island stations whose intrinsic variance varies from station to station. The method is described in detail. Objective estimates of uncertainty in the sea surface temperature data are also provided. The results extend previous work, showing that annual and seasonal surface ocean and island air temperatures have increased throughout the South Pacific. Variations in trends in the island and marine data show reasonable consistency, with distinctly different patterns of multidecadal change in the four regions. However, a notable inconsistency is the recent lack of warming in night marine air temperature in one of the tropical regions relative to sea surface temperature, with signs of this effect in a second tropical region. Another tropical region near the South Pacific convergence zone shows recent strong warming in the island data but not in the marine data.

Corresponding author address: Prof. Chris K. Folland, Hadley Centre, Met Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SY, United Kingdom. Email: chris.folland@metoffice.com

Save