Increasing Great Lake–Effect Snowfall during the Twentieth Century: A Regional Response to Global Warming?

Adam W. Burnett Department of Geography, Colgate University, Hamilton, New York

Search for other papers by Adam W. Burnett in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Matthew E. Kirby Department of Geological Sciences, California State University, Fullerton, Fullerton, California

Search for other papers by Matthew E. Kirby in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Henry T. Mullins Department of Earth Sciences, Heroy Geology Laboratory, Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York

Search for other papers by Henry T. Mullins in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
William P. Patterson Department of Geological Sciences, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada

Search for other papers by William P. Patterson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

The influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on the climate of surrounding regions is significant, especially in leeward settings where lake-effect snowfall occurs. Heavy lake-effect snow represents a potential natural hazard and plays important roles in winter recreational activities, agriculture, and regional hydrology. Changes in lake-effect snowfall may represent a regional-scale manifestation of hemispheric-scale climate change, such as that associated with global warming. This study examines records of snowfall from several lake-effect and non-lake-effect sites throughout most of the twentieth century in order to 1) determine whether differences in snowfall trends exist between these settings and 2) offer possible linkages between lake-effect snow trends and records of air temperature, water temperature, and ice cover. A new, historic record of oxygen isotope [δ18O(CaCO3)] data from the sediments of three eastern Finger Lakes in central New York is presented as a means of independently assessing changes in Great Lakes lake-effect snowfall. Results reveal a statistically significant increasing trend in snowfall for the lake-effect sites, whereas no trend is observed in the non-lake-effect settings. The Finger Lake oxygen isotope record reflects this increase in lake-effect snow through a statistically significant trend toward lower δ18O(CaCO3) values. Records of air temperature, water temperature, and lake ice suggest that the observed lake-effect snow increase during the twentieth century may be the result of warmer Great Lakes surface waters and decreased ice cover, both of which are consistent with the historic upward trend in Northern Hemispheric temperature due to global warming. Given projected increases in future global temperature, areas downwind of the Great Lakes may experience increased lake-effect snowfall for the foreseeable future.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Adam W. Burnett, Department of Geography, Colgate University, 13 Oak Drive, Hamilton, NY 13346-1398. Email: aburnett@mail.colgate.edu

Abstract

The influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on the climate of surrounding regions is significant, especially in leeward settings where lake-effect snowfall occurs. Heavy lake-effect snow represents a potential natural hazard and plays important roles in winter recreational activities, agriculture, and regional hydrology. Changes in lake-effect snowfall may represent a regional-scale manifestation of hemispheric-scale climate change, such as that associated with global warming. This study examines records of snowfall from several lake-effect and non-lake-effect sites throughout most of the twentieth century in order to 1) determine whether differences in snowfall trends exist between these settings and 2) offer possible linkages between lake-effect snow trends and records of air temperature, water temperature, and ice cover. A new, historic record of oxygen isotope [δ18O(CaCO3)] data from the sediments of three eastern Finger Lakes in central New York is presented as a means of independently assessing changes in Great Lakes lake-effect snowfall. Results reveal a statistically significant increasing trend in snowfall for the lake-effect sites, whereas no trend is observed in the non-lake-effect settings. The Finger Lake oxygen isotope record reflects this increase in lake-effect snow through a statistically significant trend toward lower δ18O(CaCO3) values. Records of air temperature, water temperature, and lake ice suggest that the observed lake-effect snow increase during the twentieth century may be the result of warmer Great Lakes surface waters and decreased ice cover, both of which are consistent with the historic upward trend in Northern Hemispheric temperature due to global warming. Given projected increases in future global temperature, areas downwind of the Great Lakes may experience increased lake-effect snowfall for the foreseeable future.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Adam W. Burnett, Department of Geography, Colgate University, 13 Oak Drive, Hamilton, NY 13346-1398. Email: aburnett@mail.colgate.edu

Save
  • Albritton, D. L., and Coauthors. 2001: Summary for policy makers. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press. [Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Appleby, P. G., and F. Oldfield, 1978: The calculation of lead-210 dates assuming a constant rate of supply of unsupported lead-210 to the sediment. Catena, 5 , 18.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Assel, R. A., and D. M. Robertson, 1995: Changes in winter air temperatures near Lake Michigan, 1851–1993, as determined from regional lake-ice records. Limnol. Oceanogr., 40 , 165176.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bolsenga, S. J., and D. C. Norton, 1993: Great Lakes air temperature trends for land stations, 1901–1987. J. Great Lakes Res., 19 , 379388.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Braham, R. R., and M. J. Dungey, 1984: Quantitative estimates of the effect of Lake Michigan on snowfall. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 23 , 940949.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Davis, M., C. Douglas, R. Calcote, K. L. Cole, M. G. Winkler, and R. Flakne, 2000: Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes National Parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change. Conserv. Biol., 14 , 968983.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eichenlaub, V. L., 1970: Lake effect snowfall to the lee of the Great Lakes: Its role in Michigan. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 51 , 403412.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eichenlaub, V. L., 1979: Weather and Climate of the Great Lakes Region. University of Notre Dame Press, 335 pp.

  • Feingold, G., and S. Kreidenweis, 2000: Does cloud processing of aerosol enhance droplet concentration? J. Geophys. Res., 105D , 351361.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gat, J. R., C. J. Bowser, and C. Kendall, 1994: The contribution of evaporation from the Great Lakes to the continental atmosphere: Estimate based on stable isotope data. Geophys. Res. Lett., 21 , 557560.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Groisman, P. Y., T. R. Karl, and R. W. Knight, 1994: Observed impact of snow cover on the heat balance and the rise of continental spring temperatures. Science, 263 , 198200.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hilfinger IV, M. F., H. T. Mullins, A. Burnett, and M. E. Kirby, 2001: A 2500 year sediment record from Fayetteville Green Lake, New York: Evidence for anthropogenic impacts and historic isotope shift. J. Paleolimnol., 26 , 293305.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hudson, J. G., 1993: Cloud condensation nuclei. J. Appl. Meteor., 32 , 596607.

  • Kirby, M. E., H. T. Mullins, W. P. Patterson, and A. Burnett, 2001: Lacustrine isotopic evidence for multi-decadal natural climate variability related to the circumpolar vortex over the NE USA during the past millennium. Geology, 29 , 807810.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Krishnaswamy, S., D. Lal, J. M. Martin, and M. Meybeck, 1971: Geochronology of lakes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 11 , 407414.

  • Kristovich, D. A. R., and N. F. Laird, 1998: Observations of widespread lake-effect cloudiness: Influences of lake surface temperature and upwind conditions. Wea. Forecasting, 13 , 811821.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kunkel, K. E., N. E. Wescott, and D. A. R. Kristovich, 2000: Climate change and lake-effect snow. Preparing for a Changing Climate: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, P. J. Sousounis, and J. M. Bisanz, Eds., U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development Global Change Research Program, 25–28.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kunkel, K. E., N. E. Wescott, and D. A. R. Kristovich, 2002: Assessment of potential effects of climate change on heavy lake-effect snowstorms near Lake Erie. J. Great Lake Res., 28 , 521536.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lajewski, C. K., H. T. Mullins, W. P. Patterson, and C. W. Callinan, 2003: Historical calcite record from the Finger Lakes, New York: Impact of acid rain on buffered terrane. Geol. Soc. Amer. Bull., 115 , 373384.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lavoie, R. L., 1972: A mesoscale model of lake effect snowstorms. J. Atmos. Sci., 29 , 10251040.

  • Leathers, D. J., and A. W. Ellis, 1996: Synoptic mechanisms associated with snowfall increases to the lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Int. J. Climate, 16 , 11171135.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Machavaram, M. V., and R. V. Krishnamurthy, 1994: Survey of factors controlling the stable isotope ratios in precipitation in the Great Lakes region, USA. Isr. J. Earth Sci., 43 , 195202.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Machavaram, M. V., and R. V. Krishnamurthy, 1995: Earth surface evaporative process: A case study from the Great Lakes region of the United States based on deuterium excess in precipitation. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 59 , 42794283.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Magnuson, J. J., and Coauthors. 2000: Historical trends in lake and river ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Science, 289 , 17431746.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McCormick, M. J., and G. L. Fahnenstiel, 1999: Recent climatic trends in nearshore water temperatures in the St. Lawrence Great Lakes. Limnol. Oceanogr., 44 , 530540.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Michel, R. L., and T. F. Kraemer, 1995: Use of isotopic data to estimate water residence times of the Finger Lakes, New York. J. Hydrol., 164 , 118.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Niziol, T. A., W. R. Snyder, and J. S. Waldstreicher, 1995: Winter weather forecasting throughout the eastern United States. Part IV: Lake effect snow. Wea. Forcasting, 10 , 6177.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Norton, D. C., and S. J. Bolsenga, 1993: Spatiotemporal trends in lake effect and continental snowfall in the Laurentian Great Lakes, 1951–1980. J. Climate, 6 , 19431956.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rosenfeld, D., 2000: Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution. Science, 287 , 17931796.

  • Wilson, J. D., 1977: Effect of Lake Ontario on precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105 , 207214.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 4804 1586 228
PDF Downloads 2670 740 71