• Adams, J., , M. Maslin, , and E. Thomas, 1999: Sudden climate transitions during the Quaternary. Prog. Phys. Geogr., 23 , 136.

  • Akaike, H., 1974: A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans. Auto. Control, 19 , 716723.

  • Atlas, R., , N. Wolfson, , and J. Terry, 1993: The effect of SST and soil moisture anomalies on GLA model simulations of the 1988 U.S. summer drought. J. Climate, 6 , 20342048.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bell, G., , and A. Basist, 1994: The global climate of December 1992–February 1993. Part I: Warm ENSO conditions continue in the tropical Pacific, California drought abates. J. Climate, 7 , 15811605.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cubasch, U., and Coauthors. 2001: Projections of future climate change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 525–582.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fennessy, M. J., , and J. Shukla, 1999: Impact of initial soil wetness on seasonal atmospheric prediction. J. Climate, 12 , 31673180.

  • Folland, C. K., and Coauthors. 2001: Observed climate variability and change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 99–181.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gregory, J. M., , J. F. B. Mitchell, , and A. J. Brady, 1997: Summer drought in northern midlatitudes in a time-dependent CO2 climate experiment. J. Climate, 10 , 662686.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Groisman, P. Y., , and D. R. Easterling, 1994: Variability and trends of total precipitation and snowfall over the United States and Canada. J. Climate, 7 , 184205.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Groisman, P. Y., , R. W. Knight, , and T. R. Karl, 2001: Heavy precipitation and high streamflow in the contiguous United States: Trends in the twentieth century. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82 , 219246.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Guttman, N. B., , and R. G. Quayle, 1996: A historical perspective of U.S. climate divisions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77 , 293303.

  • Hong, S., , and E. Kalnay, 2002: The 1998 Oklahoma–Texas drought: Mechanistic experiments with NCEP global and regional models. J. Climate, 15 , 945963.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jones, P. D., , and A. Moberg, 2003: Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001. J. Climate, 16 , 206223.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Karl, T. R., , and R. W. Knight, 1998: Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79 , 231241.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Karl, T. R., and Coauthors. 1993: A new perspective on recent global warming: Asymmetric trends in daily maximum and minimum temperature. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74 , 10071023.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Karl, T. R., , R. W. Knight, , and N. Plummer, 1995: Trends in high frequency climate variability during the 20th century. Nature, 377 , 217220.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Karl, T. R., , R. W. Knight, , D. R. Easterling, , and R. G. Quayle, 1996: Indices of climate change for the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77 , 279292.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kunkel, K. E., , K. Andsager, , and D. R. Easterling, 1999: Long-term trends in extreme precipitation events over the coterminous United States and Canada. J. Climate, 12 , 25152527.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Latif, M., , and T. P. Barnett, 1996: Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: Dynamics and predictability. J. Climate, 9 , 24072423.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lau, K. M., , and H. Weng, 1995: Climate signal detection using wavelet transform: How to make a time series sing. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76 , 23912402.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lean, J., , and D. Rind, 1998: Climate forcing by changing solar radiation. J. Climate, 11 , 30693094.

  • Lean, J., , J. Beer, , and R. Bradley, 1995: Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 22 , 31953198.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lettenmaier, D. P., , E. F. Wood, , and J. R. Wallis, 1994: Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States, 1948–88. J. Climate, 7 , 586607.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Manabe, S., , and R. T. Wetherald, 1987: Large-scale changes of soil wetness induced by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. J. Atmos. Sci., 44 , 12111235.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mann, H. B., , and D. R. Whitney, 1947: On a test of whether one of two random variables is stochastically larger than the other. Ann. Math. Stat., 18 , 5060.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mantua, N. J., , S. R. Hare, , Y. Zhang, , J. M. Wallace, , and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 , 10691079.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mauget, S., 2003: Intra- to multidecadal climate variability over the continental United States: 1932–99. J. Climate, 16 , 22152231.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mendenhall, W., , D. D. Wackerly, , and R. L. Sheaffer, 1990: Mathematical Statistics with Applications. 4th ed. PWS-Kent, 788 pp.

  • Minobe, S., 1997: A 50–70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24 , 683686.

  • Nakamura, H., , G. Lin, , and T. Yamagata, 1997: Decadal climate variability in the North Pacific during the recent decades. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 , 22152225.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • National Assessment Synthesis Team, 2000: Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. Cambridge University Press, 154 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • National Research Council, 2002: Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. National Academy Press, 244 pp.

  • Oglesby, R. J., , and D. J. Erickson, 1989: Soil moisture and the persistence of North American drought. J. Climate, 2 , 13621380.

  • Rantz, S. E., and Coauthors. 1982a: Measurement and computation of streamflow. Vol. 1. U.S. Geological Survey Water Supply Paper 2175, 285 pp. [Available online at http://water.usgs.gov/pubs/wsp/wsp2175/.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rantz, S. E., and Coauthors. 1982b: Measurement and computation of streamflow. Vol. 2. U.S. Geological Survey Water Supply Paper 2175, 347 pp. [Available online at http://water.usgs.gov/pubs/wsp/wsp2175/.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rind, D., , R. Goldberg, , J. Hansen, , C. Rosenzweig, , and R. Ruedy, 1990: Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought. J. Geophys. Res., 95 , 998310004.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shukla, J., , and Y. Mintz, 1982: Influence of land–surface evapotranspiration on the Earth’s climate. Science, 215 , 14981500.

  • Slack, J. R., , A. M. Lumb, , and J. M. Landwehr, 1993: Hydro-climatic data network (HCDN) streamflow data set, 1874–1988. U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigation Report 93–4076, CD-ROM. [Available from U.S. Geological Survey, Box 25286, Denver, CO 80225 and available online at http://water.usgs.gov/pubs/wri/wri934076/.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tett, S. F. B., , P. A. Stott, , M. R. Allen, , W. J. Ingram, , and J. F. B. Mitchell, 1999: Causes of twentieth-century temperature change near the Earth’s surface. Nature, 399 , 569572.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thiebaux, H. J., , and F. W. Zwiers, 1984: The interpretation and estimation of effective sample size. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 23 , 800811.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trenberth, K. E., 1990: Recent observed climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 71 , 988993.

  • Trenberth, K. E., 1999: Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change. Climate Change, 42 , 327339.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wessel, P., , and W. H. F. Smith, 1995: New version of the generic mapping tools released. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 76 , 329.

  • Wilcoxon, F., 1945: Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bull., 1 , 8083.

  • Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, 464 pp.

  • Wolfson, N., , R. Atlas, , and Y. C. Sud, 1987: Numerical experiments related to the summer 1980 heat wave. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115 , 13451357.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, Y., , J. M. Wallace, , and D. S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93. J. Climate, 10 , 10041020.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 178 178 11
PDF Downloads 36 36 3

Multidecadal Regime Shifts in U.S. Streamflow, Precipitation, and Temperature at the End of the Twentieth Century

View More View Less
  • 1 U.S. Department of Agriculture–Agricultural Research Service, USDA Plant Stress and Water Conservation Laboratory, Lubbock, Texas
© Get Permissions Rent on DeepDyve
Restricted access

Abstract

Intra- to multidecadal variation in annual streamflow, precipitation, and temperature over the continental United States are evaluated here through the calculation of Mann–Whitney U statistics over running-time windows of 6–30-yr duration. When this method is demonstrated on time series of nationally averaged annual precipitation and mean temperature during 1896–2001, it reveals that 8 of the 10 wettest years occurred during the last 29 yr of that 106-yr period, and 6 of the 10 warmest years during the last 16. Both of these results indicate highly significant departures from long-term stationarity in U.S. climate at the end of the twentieth century. The effects of increased wetness are primarily evident in the central and eastern United States, while evidence of warmth is found throughout the Rocky Mountain region and in the West. Analysis of annual streamflow records across the United States during 1939–98 shows broadly consistent effects. Initial evidence of the recent wet regime is most apparent in eastern streamflow, which shows a clear pattern of high-ranked mean annual values during the 1970s. Over the midwestern states, a coherent pattern of high-ranked annual flow is found during multidecadal periods beginning during the late 1960s and early 1970s and ending in either 1997 or 1998. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, a significant incidence of low-ranked annual flow conditions throughout the West was roughly coincident with the onset of western warmth during the mid-1980s. Evidence of highly significant transitions to wetter and warmer conditions nationally, and consistent variation in streamflow analyses, suggests that increased hydrological surplus in the central and eastern United States and increased hydrological deficit in the West may be representative of the initial stages of climate change over the continental United States.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Steven A. Mauget, USDA/ARS, 3810 4th St., Lubbock, TX 79415. Email: smauget@lbk.ars.usda.gov

Abstract

Intra- to multidecadal variation in annual streamflow, precipitation, and temperature over the continental United States are evaluated here through the calculation of Mann–Whitney U statistics over running-time windows of 6–30-yr duration. When this method is demonstrated on time series of nationally averaged annual precipitation and mean temperature during 1896–2001, it reveals that 8 of the 10 wettest years occurred during the last 29 yr of that 106-yr period, and 6 of the 10 warmest years during the last 16. Both of these results indicate highly significant departures from long-term stationarity in U.S. climate at the end of the twentieth century. The effects of increased wetness are primarily evident in the central and eastern United States, while evidence of warmth is found throughout the Rocky Mountain region and in the West. Analysis of annual streamflow records across the United States during 1939–98 shows broadly consistent effects. Initial evidence of the recent wet regime is most apparent in eastern streamflow, which shows a clear pattern of high-ranked mean annual values during the 1970s. Over the midwestern states, a coherent pattern of high-ranked annual flow is found during multidecadal periods beginning during the late 1960s and early 1970s and ending in either 1997 or 1998. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, a significant incidence of low-ranked annual flow conditions throughout the West was roughly coincident with the onset of western warmth during the mid-1980s. Evidence of highly significant transitions to wetter and warmer conditions nationally, and consistent variation in streamflow analyses, suggests that increased hydrological surplus in the central and eastern United States and increased hydrological deficit in the West may be representative of the initial stages of climate change over the continental United States.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Steven A. Mauget, USDA/ARS, 3810 4th St., Lubbock, TX 79415. Email: smauget@lbk.ars.usda.gov

Save