• Baldwin, C. K., 2001: Seasonal streamflow forecasting using climate information. Proc. 69th Western Snow Conf., Sun Valley, ID, Western Snow Conference, 95–98.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Carroll, S. S., , T. R. Carroll, , and R. W. Poston, 1999: Spatial modeling and prediction of snow water equivalent using ground-based, airborne, and satellite snow data. J. Geophys. Res., 104 , 1962319629.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Castruccio, P. A., , H. L. Loats, , D. Lloyd, , and P. A. B. Newman, 1980: Cost/benefit analysis in the operational application of satellite snowcover operations. Operational Applications of Satellite Snowcover Operations, A. Rango and R. Peterson, Eds., NASA Conference Publication 2116, NASA Scientific and Technical Information Office, 239–254.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cayan, D. R., , K. T. Redmond, , and L. G. Riddle, 1999: ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the western United States. J. Climate, 12 , 28812893.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • COE, 1979: Missouri River main stem reservoir system reservoir regulation manual. Vol. 1, Master manual, Missouri River Division, Omaha, NE.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • COE, 1991: Missouri River system analysis model—Phase I. Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA, 34 pp. + 5 appendixes.

  • COE, 1994a: Missouri River master water control manual review and update. Vol. 2. Reservoir regulation studies, long range study model, Missouri River Division.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • COE, 1994b: Missouri River master water control manual review and update. Vol. 6D. Economic studies, Missouri River Division.

  • COE, 1998: Missouri River main stem reservoirs: System description and operation. Northwestern Division, Missouri River Region, Reservoir Control Center, 28 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • COE, 1999: Missouri River main stem reservoirs hydrologic statistics. Missouri River Region, Reservoir Control Center RCC Tech. Rep. F-99, 45 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • COE, 2001: Missouri River master water control manual review and update, revised draft environmental impact statement. Northwestern Division, Omaha, NE.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Datta, B., , and S. J. Burges, 1984: Short-term, single, multi-purpose reservoir operation: Importance of loss functions and forecast errors. Water Resour. Res., 20 , 11671176.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dracup, J. A., , and E. Kahya, 1994: The relationships between U.S. streamflow and La Niña events. Water Resour. Res., 30 , 21332141.

  • Fennessy, M. J., , and J. Shukla, 2000: Seasonal prediction over North America with a regional model nested in a global model. J. Climate, 13 , 26052627.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Garen, D. C., 1998: ENSO indicators and long-range climate forecasts: Usage in seasonal streamflow volume forecasting in the western United States. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 79 , F325.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Georgakakos, K. P., , A. P. Georgakakos, , and N. E. Graham, 1998: Assessment of benefits of climate forecasts for reservoir management in the GCIP region. GEWEX News, 8 , 57.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goddard, L., , S. J. Mason, , S. E. Zebiak, , C. F. Ropelewski, , R. Basher, , and M. A. Kane, 2001: Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. Int. J. Climatol., 21 , 11111152.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hamlet, A. F., , and D. P. Lettenmaier, 1999: Columbia River streamflow forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals. ASCE J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage., 125 , 333341.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hamlet, A. F., , D. Huppert, , and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2002: Economic value of long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower. ASCE J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 128 , 91101.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hooper, E. R., , A. P. Georgakakos, , and D. P. Lettenmaier, 1991: Optimal stochastic operation of the Salt River Project, Arizona. ASCE J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 117 , 566587.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hornberger, G. M., and Coauthors, 2001: A plan for a new science initiative on the global water cycle. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 118 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hotchkiss, R. H., , S. F. Jorgensen, , M. C. Stone, , and T. A. Fontaine, 2000: Regulated river modeling for climate change impact assessment: The Missouri River. J. Amer. Water Resour. Assoc., 36 , 375386.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hu, Q., , and S. Feng, 2001: Variations of teleconnection of ENSO and interannual variation in summer rainfall in the central United States. J. Climate, 14 , 24692480.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Imagine That, Inc., 2001: Extend Professional Simulation Tool Version 5. Imagine That, Inc.

  • Jorgensen, S. F., 1996: Hydrologic modeling of Missouri River reservoirs in a climate model. M.S. thesis, Civil Engineering Dept., University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska, 109 PP.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kahya, E., , and J. A. Dracup, 1993: U.S. streamflow patterns in relation to El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Water Resour. Res., 29 , 24912503.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lettenmaier, D. P., 1984: Synthetic streamflow forecast generation. ASCE J. Hydraul. Eng., 110 , 277289.

  • Lund, J. R., , and I. Ferreira, 1996: Operating rule optimization for the Missouri River reservoir system. ASCE J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 122 , 287295.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Maurer, E. P., , and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2003: Predictability of seasonal runoff in the Mississippi River basin. J. Geophys. Res.,108, 8607, doi:10.1029/2002JD002555.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Maurer, E. P., , A. W. Wood, , J. C. Adam, , D. P. Lettenmaier, , and B. Nijssen, 2002: A long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States. J. Climate, 15 , 32373251.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • National Research Council, 2002a: Workshop on Predictability and Limits-to-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems. National Academy Press, 118 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • National Research Council, 2002b: The Missouri River ecosystem: Exploring the prospects for recovery. National Academy Press, 188 pp.

  • Pauwels, V. R. N., , R. Hoeben, , N. E. C. Verhoest, , and F. P. De Troch, 2001: The importance of spatial patterns of remotely sensed soil moisture in the improvement of discharge predictions for small-scale basins through data assimilation. J. Hydrol., 251 , 88102.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rango, A., , A. E. Walker, , and B. E. Goodison, 2000: Snow and ice. Remote Sensing in Hydrology and Water Management, G. A. Schultz and E. T. Engman, Eds., Springer-Verlag, 239–262.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reisner, M., 1986: Cadillac Desert. Viking Penguin, 514 pp.

  • Reisner, M., , and S. Bates, 1990: Overtapped Oasis: Reform or Revolution for Western Water. Island Press, 196 pp.

  • Walker, J. P., , and P. R. Houser, 2001: A methodology for initializing soil moisture in a global climate model: Assimilation of near surface soil moisture observations. J. Geophys Res., 106 , 1176111774.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wood, A. W., , E. P. Maurer, , A. Kumar, , and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2002: Long range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern U.S. J. Geophys. Res.,107, 4429, doi:10.1029/2001JD000659.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yao, H., , and A. Georgakakos, 2001: Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios. 2: Reservoir management. J. Hydrol., 249 , 176196.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yeh, W. W-G., , L. Becker, , and R. Zettlemoyer, 1982: Worth of inflow forecast for reservoir operation. J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 108 , 257269.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 201 201 146
PDF Downloads 46 46 9

Potential Effects of Long-Lead Hydrologic Predictability on Missouri River Main-Stem Reservoirs

View More View Less
  • 1 Department of Civil Engineering, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, California
  • | 2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

Understanding the links between remote conditions, such as tropical sea surface temperatures, and regional climate has the potential to improve streamflow predictions, with associated economic benefits for reservoir operation. Better definition of land surface moisture states (soil moisture and snow water storage) at the beginning of the forecast period provides an additional source of streamflow predictability. The value of long-lead predictive skill added by climate forecast information and land surface moisture states in the Missouri River basin is examined. Forecasted flows were generated that represent predictability achievable through knowledge of climate, snow, and soil moisture states. For the current main-stem reservoirs (90 × 109 m3 storage volume) only a 1.8% improvement in hydropower benefits could be achieved with perfect forecasts for lead times up to one year. This low value of prediction skill is due to the system's large storage capacity relative to annual inflow. To evaluate the effects of hydrologic predictability on a smaller system, a hypothetical system was specified with a reduced storage volume of 36 × 109 m3. This smaller system showed a 7.1% difference in annual hydropower benefits for perfect forecasts, representing $25.7 million. Using realistic streamflow predictability, $6.8 million of the $25.7 million are realizable. The climate indices provide the greatest portion of the $6.8 million, and initial soil moisture information provides the largest increment above climate knowledge. The results demonstrate that use of climate forecast information along with better definition of the basin moisture states can improve runoff predictions with modest economic value that, in general, will increase as the size of the reservoir system decreases.

Corresponding author address: Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195-2700. Email: lettenma@ce.washington.edu

Abstract

Understanding the links between remote conditions, such as tropical sea surface temperatures, and regional climate has the potential to improve streamflow predictions, with associated economic benefits for reservoir operation. Better definition of land surface moisture states (soil moisture and snow water storage) at the beginning of the forecast period provides an additional source of streamflow predictability. The value of long-lead predictive skill added by climate forecast information and land surface moisture states in the Missouri River basin is examined. Forecasted flows were generated that represent predictability achievable through knowledge of climate, snow, and soil moisture states. For the current main-stem reservoirs (90 × 109 m3 storage volume) only a 1.8% improvement in hydropower benefits could be achieved with perfect forecasts for lead times up to one year. This low value of prediction skill is due to the system's large storage capacity relative to annual inflow. To evaluate the effects of hydrologic predictability on a smaller system, a hypothetical system was specified with a reduced storage volume of 36 × 109 m3. This smaller system showed a 7.1% difference in annual hydropower benefits for perfect forecasts, representing $25.7 million. Using realistic streamflow predictability, $6.8 million of the $25.7 million are realizable. The climate indices provide the greatest portion of the $6.8 million, and initial soil moisture information provides the largest increment above climate knowledge. The results demonstrate that use of climate forecast information along with better definition of the basin moisture states can improve runoff predictions with modest economic value that, in general, will increase as the size of the reservoir system decreases.

Corresponding author address: Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195-2700. Email: lettenma@ce.washington.edu

Save