Abstract
Ocean heat uptake and the thermohaline circulation are analyzed in present-day control, 1% increasing CO2, and doubled CO2 runs of the Community Climate System Model, version 2 (CCSM2). It is concluded that the observed 40-yr trend in the global heat content to 300 m, found by Levitus et al., is somewhat larger than the natural variability in the CCSM2 control run. The observed 40-yr trend in the global heat content down to a depth of 3 km is much closer to trends found in the control run and is not so clearly separated from the natural model variability. It is estimated that, in a 0.7% increasing CO2 scenario that approximates the effect of increasing greenhouse gases between 1958 and 1998, the CCSM2 40-yr trend in the global heat content to 300 m is about the same as the observed value. This gives support for the CCSM2 climate sensitivity, which is 2.2°C.
Both the maximum of the meridional overturning streamfunction and the vertical flow across 1-km depth between 60° and 65°N decrease monotonically during the 1% CO2 run. However, the reductions are quite modest, being 3 and 2 Sv, respectively, when CO2 has quadrupled. The reason for this is that the surface potential density in the northern North Atlantic decreases steadily throughout the 1% CO2 run. In the latter part of the doubled CO2 run, the meridional overturning streamfunction recovers in strength back toward its value in the control run, but the deep-water formation rate across 1-km depth between 60° and 65°N remains at 85% of the control run value. The maximum northward heat transport at 22°N is governed by the maximum of the overturning, but the transport poleward of 62°N appears to be independent of the deep-water formation rate.
Corresponding author address: Dr. Peter R. Gent, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000. Email: gent@ucar.edu
