Predicted Twenty-First-Century Changes in Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Events in the Parallel Climate Model

Michael F. Wehner Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California

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Abstract

Twenty-year return values of annual and seasonal maxima of daily precipitation are calculated from a set of transiently forced coupled general circulation model simulations. The magnitude and pattern of return values are found to be highly dependent on the seasonal cycle. A similar dependence is found for projected future changes in return values.

The correlation between the spatial pattern of return value changes and mean precipitation changes is found to be low. Hence, the changes in mean precipitation do not provide significant information about changes in precipitation extreme values.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Michael F. Wehner, Scientific Computing Group, Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Mail Stop 50F1650, Berkeley, CA 94720-8139. Email: mfwehner@lbl.gov

Abstract

Twenty-year return values of annual and seasonal maxima of daily precipitation are calculated from a set of transiently forced coupled general circulation model simulations. The magnitude and pattern of return values are found to be highly dependent on the seasonal cycle. A similar dependence is found for projected future changes in return values.

The correlation between the spatial pattern of return value changes and mean precipitation changes is found to be low. Hence, the changes in mean precipitation do not provide significant information about changes in precipitation extreme values.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Michael F. Wehner, Scientific Computing Group, Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Mail Stop 50F1650, Berkeley, CA 94720-8139. Email: mfwehner@lbl.gov

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