Article Type:
Research Article

The Influence of Ocean Convection Patterns on High-Latitude Climate Projections

M. Schaeffer Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands

Search for other papers by M. Schaeffer in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
F. M. Selten Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands

Search for other papers by F. M. Selten in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
J. D. Opsteegh Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands

Search for other papers by J. D. Opsteegh in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
H. Goosse Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

Search for other papers by H. Goosse in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
15 Nov 2004
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/3174.1
Page(s):
4316–4329
Restricted access

Abstract

The mean state and variability of deep convection in the ocean influence the North Atlantic climate. Using an ensemble experiment with a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, it is shown that cooling and subdued warming areas can occur over the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent landmasses under global warming. Different “present-day” convection patterns in the Greenland–Iceland–Norway (GIN) Sea result in different future surface-air temperature changes. At higher latitudes, the more effective positive sea ice feedback increases the likelihood of changes in convection causing a regional cooling that is larger than the warming brought about by the enhanced greenhouse effect. The modeled freshening of deep ocean layers in the North Atlantic in a time period preceding a reorganization of GIN Sea convection is consistent with recent observations. Low-frequency internal variability in the ocean model has relatively little impact on the response patterns.

Current affiliation: National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands

Corresponding author address: Michiel Schaeffer, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, Netherlands. Email: Michiel.Schaeffer@rivm.nl

Abstract

The mean state and variability of deep convection in the ocean influence the North Atlantic climate. Using an ensemble experiment with a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, it is shown that cooling and subdued warming areas can occur over the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent landmasses under global warming. Different “present-day” convection patterns in the Greenland–Iceland–Norway (GIN) Sea result in different future surface-air temperature changes. At higher latitudes, the more effective positive sea ice feedback increases the likelihood of changes in convection causing a regional cooling that is larger than the warming brought about by the enhanced greenhouse effect. The modeled freshening of deep ocean layers in the North Atlantic in a time period preceding a reorganization of GIN Sea convection is consistent with recent observations. Low-frequency internal variability in the ocean model has relatively little impact on the response patterns.

Current affiliation: National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands

Corresponding author address: Michiel Schaeffer, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, Netherlands. Email: Michiel.Schaeffer@rivm.nl

Save
Cover Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate

  • Anisimov, O., B. Fitzharris, J. O. Hagen, R. Jefferies, H. Marchant, F. Nelson, T. Prowse, and D. G. Vaughan, 2001: Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, J. J. McCarthy et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 801–841.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Beckmann, A., and R. Döscher, 1997: A method for improved representation of dense water spreading over topography in geopotential-coordinate models. J. Phys. Oceanogr, 27 , 581–591.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Boer, G. J., G. Flato, and D. Ramsden, 2000: A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: Projected climate to the twenty-first century. Climate Dyn, 16 , 427–450.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Campin, J-M., and H. Goosse, 1999: Parameterization of density-driven downsloping flow for a coarse-resolution ocean model in z-coordinate. Tellus, 51A , 412–430.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chou, C., and J. D. Neelin, 1996: Linearization of a longwave radiation scheme for intermediate tropical atmospheric models. J. Geophys. Res, 101D , 15129–15145.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Comiso, J. C., 2002: A rapidly declining perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic. Geophys. Res. Lett.,29, 1956, doi:10.1029/ 2002GL015650.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cubasch, U., and Coauthors, 1994: Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Climate Dyn, 10 , 1–19.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cubasch, U., G. C. Hegerl, A. Hellbach, H. Höch, U. Mikolajewicz, B. D. Santer, and R. Voss, 1995: A climate change simulation starting from 1935. Climate Dyn, 11 , 71–84.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cubasch, U., and Coauthors, 2001: Projections of future climate change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 525–582.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Deleersnijder, E., and J. M. Campin, 1995: On the computation of the barotropic mode of a freesurface world ocean model. Ann. Geophys, 13 , 675–688.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Deleersnijder, E., J. P. van Ypersele, and J. M. Campin, 1993: An orthogonal curvilinear coordinate system for a World Ocean model. Ocean Modelling, 100 , 7–10.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Delworth, T. L., R. J. Stouffer, K. W. Dixon, M. J. Spelman, T. R. Knutson, A. J. Broccoli, P. J. Kushner, and R. T. Wetherald, 2002: Review of simulations of climate variability and change with the GFDL R30 coupled climate model. Climate Dyn, 19 , 555–574.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dickson, B., I. Yashayaev, J. Meincke, B. Turrell, S. Dye, and J. Holfort, 2002: Rapid freshening of the deep North Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades. Nature, 416 , 832–837.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dickson, R. R., and J. Brown, 1994: The production of North Atlantic deep water: Sources, rates, and pathways. J. Geophys. Res, 99 , 12319–12341.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dickson, R. R., J. Lazier, J. Meincke, P. Rhines, and J. Swift, 1996: Long-term coordinated changes in the convective activity of the North Atlantic. Progress in Oceanography, Vol. 38, Pergamon, 241–295.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dixon, K. W., and J. R. Lanzante, 1999: Global mean surface air temperature and North Atlantic overturning in a suite of coupled GCM climate change experiments. Geophys. Res. Lett, 26 , 1885–1888.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Fichefet, T., and M. A. Morales Maqueda, 1997: Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics. J. Geophys. Res, 102 , 12609–12646.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gent, P. R., 2001: Will the North Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation weaken during the 21st century? Geophys. Res. Lett, 28 , 1023–1026.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Goosse, H., and T. Fichefet, 1999: Importance of ice–ocean interactions for the global ocean circulation: A model study. J. Geophys. Res, 104 , 23337–23355.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Goosse, H., and H. Renssen, 2001: A two-phase response of the Southern Ocean to an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Geophys. Res. Lett, 28 , 3469–3473.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Goosse, H., E. Deleersnijder, T. Fichefet, and M. H. England, 1999: Sensitivity of a global coupled ocean-sea ice model to the parameterization of vertical mixing. J. Geophys. Res, 104 , 13681–13695.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Goosse, H., F. M. Selten, R. J. Haarsma, and J. D. Opsteegh, 2001: Decadal variability in high Northern latitudes as simulated by an intermediate-complexity climate model. Ann. Glaciol, 33 , 525–532.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Goosse, H., F. M. Selten, R. J. Haarsma, and J. D. Opsteegh, 2002: A mechanism of decadal variability of the sea-ice volume in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dyn, 19 , 61–83.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Goosse, H., F. M. Selten, R. J. Haarsma, and J. D. Opsteegh, 2003: Large sea-ice volume anomalies simulated in a coupled climate model. Climate Dyn.,20, 523– 536.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gordon, A. L., 1986: Interocean exchange of thermocline water. J. Geophys. Res, 91 , 5037–5046.

  • Gordon, H. B., and S. P. O'Farrell, 1997: Transient climate change in the CSIRO coupled model with dynamic sea ice. Mon. Wea. Rev, 125 , 875–907.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gregory, J. M., R. J. Stouffer, S. C. B. Raper, P. A. Stott, and N. A. Rayner, 2002: An observationally based estimate of the climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 15 , 3117–3121.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson, Eds.,. 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, 881 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Huybrechts, P., and J. de Wolde, 1999: The dynamic response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to multiple-century climatic warming. J. Climate, 12 , 2169–2188.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • IPCC Data Distribution Center, 1999: The IPCC data distribution center CD-ROM, Version 1.0. IPCC Secretariat, Hamburg, Germany. [Available online at http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/.].

  • Joos, F., G-K. Plattner, T. F. Stocker, O. Marchal, and A. Schmittner, 1999: Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2. Science, 284 , 464–467.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Knutti, R., and T. F. Stocker, 2002: Limited predictability of the future thermohaline circulation close to an instability threshold. J. Climate, 15 , 179–186.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Marshall, J., and F. Schott, 1999: Open-ocean convection: Observations, theory, and models. Rev. Geophys, 37 , 1–64.

  • McCarthy, J. J., O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken, and K. S. White, Eds.,. 2001: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, 1032 pp.

  • Meehl, G. A., W. M. Washington, D. J. Erickson, B. P. Briegleb, and P. J. Jaumann, 1996: Climate change from increased CO2 and direct and indirect effects of sulfate aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett, 23 , 3755–3758.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mellor, G. L., and T. Yamada, 1982: Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys, 20 , 851–875.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Miller, J. R., and G. L. Russell, 2000: Projected impact of climate change on the freshwater and salt budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a global climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett, 27 , 1183–1186.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mitchell, J. F. B., T. C. Johns, M. Eagles, W. J. Ingram, and R. A. Davis, 1999: Towards the construction of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 41 , 547–581.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Nakićenovic, N., and Coauthors, 2000: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, 599 pp.

  • Nozawa, T., S. Emori, A. Numaguti, Y. Tsushima, T. Takemura, T. Nakajima, A. Abe-Ouchi, and M. Kimoto, 2001: Projections of future climate change in the 21st century simulated by the CCSR/ NIES CGCM under the IPCC SRES scenarios. Present and Future of Modeling Global Environmental Change: Toward Integrated Modeling, T. Matsuno and H. Kida, Eds., Terra Scientific, 15–28.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Opsteegh, J. D., R. J. Haarsma, F. M. Selten, and A. Kattenberg, 1998: ECBILT: A dynamic alternative to mixed boundary conditions in ocean models. Tellus, 50A , 348–367.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rahmstorf, S., 1995: Bifurcations of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to changes in the hydrological cycle. Nature, 378 , 145–149.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Renssen, H., H. Goosse, T. Fichefet, and J-M. Campin, 2001: The 8.2 kyr BP event simulated by a global atmosphere–sea-ice– ocean model. Geophys. Res. Lett, 28 , 1567–1570.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Renssen, H., H. Goosse, and T. Fichefet, 2003: On the non-linear response of the ocean thermohaline circulation to global deforestation. Geophys. Res. Lett.,30, 1061, doi:10.1029/2002GL016155.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Roeckner, E., L. Bengtsson, J. Feichter, J. Lelieveld, and H. Rodhe, 1998: Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulphur cycle. MPI Rep. 266, 48 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Roemmich, D., and C. Wunsch, 1985: Two transatlantic sections: Meridional circulation and heat flux in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Deep-Sea Res, 32 , 619–664.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Russell, G. L., and D. Rind, 1999: Response to CO2 transient increase in the GISS coupled model: Regional coolings in a warming climate. J. Climate, 12 , 531–539.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schaeffer, M., F. Selten, and R. van Dorland, 1998: Linking IMAGE and ECBilt. RIVM Rep. 481508008, 53 pp.

  • Schaeffer, M., F. Selten, J. D. Opsteegh, and H. Goosse, 2002: Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCC SRES scenarios. Geophys. Res. Lett.,29, 1767, doi:10.1029/ 2002GL015254.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schmittner, A., M. Yoshimori, and A. J. Weaver, 2002: Instability of glacial climate in a model of the ocean–atmosphere–cryosphere system. Science, 295 , 1489–1493.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schmitz Jr., W. J., 1995: On the interbasin-scale thermohaline circulation. Rev. Geophys, 33 , 151–173.

  • Schott, F., M. Visbeck, and J. Fischer, 1993: Observations of vertical currents and convection in the central Greenland Sea during winter 1988/1989. J. Geophys. Res, 98 , 14401–14421.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Smethie, W. M. J., H. G. Ostlund, and H. H. Loosli, 1986: Ventilation of the deep Greenland and Norwegian seas: Evidence from krypton-85, tritium, carbon-14 and argon-39. Deep-Sea Res, 33 , 675–703.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Tartinville, B., J. M. Campin, T. Fichefet, and H. Goosse, 2001: Realistic representation of the surface freshwater flux in an ice-ocean general circulation model. Ocean Modell, 3 , 95–108.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • van der Wal, R. S. W., and J. Oerlemans, 1994: An energy balance model for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Global Planet. Change, 9 , 115–131.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Visbeck, M., J. Fischer, and F. Schott, 1995: Preconditioning the Greenland Sea for deep convection: Ice formation and ice drift. J. Geophys. Res, 100 , 18489–18502.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Washington, W. M., and Coauthors, 2000: Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Climate Dyn, 16 , 755–774.

  • Wood, R. A., A. B. Keen, J. F. B. Mitchell, and J. M. Gregory, 1999: Changing spatial structure of the thermohaline circulation in response to atmospheric CO2 forcing in a climate model. Nature, 399 , 572–575.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 491 257 61
PDF Downloads 141 33 3