• Comrie, A. C., , and E. C. Glenn, 1998: Principal components-based regionalization of precipitation regimes across the southwest United States and northern Mexico, with an application to monsoon precipitation variability. Climate Res, 10 , 201215.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dhar, O. N., , P. R. Rakhecha, , and B. N. Mandal, 1980: Does the early or late onset of the monsoon provide any clue to the subsequent rainfall during the monsoon season? Mon. Wea. Rev, 108 , 10691072.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eltahir, E. A. B., 1998: A soil moisture–rainfall feedback mechanism. 1. Theory and observations. Water Resour. Res, 34 , 765776.

  • Graham, N. E., 1994: Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: Observations and model results. Climate Dyn, 10 , 135162.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gutzler, D. S., 2000: Covariability of spring snowpack and summer rainfall across the southwest United States. J. Climate, 13 , 40184027.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gutzler, D. S., , D. M. Kann, , and C. Thornbrugh, 2002: Modulation of ENSO-based long-lead outlooks of southwest U.S. winter precipitation by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Wea. Forecasting, 17 , 11631172.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Higgins, R. W., , Y. Yao, , and X-L. Wang, 1997: Influence of the North American monsoon system on the U.S. summer precipitation regime. J. Climate, 10 , 26002622.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Higgins, R. W., , Y. Chen, , and A. V. Douglas, 1999: Interannual variability of the North American warm season precipitation regime. J. Climate, 12 , 653679.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Higgins, R. W., , A. Leetmaa, , Y. Xue, , and A. Barnston, 2000a: Dominant factors influencing the seasonal predictability of U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature. J. Climate, 13 , 39944017.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Higgins, R. W., , W. Shi, , E. Yarosh, , and R. Joyce, 2000b: Improved United States Precipitation Quality Control System and Analysis. Atlas No. 7, NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, 40 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Higgins, R. W., , W. Shi, , and C. Hain, 2004: Relationships between Gulf of California moisture surges and precipitation in the southwestern United States. J. Climate, 17 , 29832997.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Horel, J. D., 1981: A rotated principal component analysis of the interannual variability of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height field. Mon. Wea. Rev, 109 , 20802092.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Magaña, V., , J. A. Amador, , and S. Medina, 1999: The midsummer drought over Mexico and Central America. J. Climate, 12 , 15771588.

  • Mantua, N. J., , S. R. Hare, , Y. Zhang, , J. M. Wallace, , and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 78 , 10691079.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mock, C. J., 1996: Climatic controls and spatial variations of precipitation in the western United States. J. Climate, 9 , 11111125.

  • NAME, cited 2003: The North American Monsoon Experiment Science Plan. [Available online at http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name/;.].

  • Richman, M. B., 1986: Rotation of principal components. J. Climatol, 6 , 293335.

  • Small, E. E., 2001: The influence of soil moisture anomalies on variability of the North American monsoon system. Geophys. Res. Lett, 28 , 139142.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yu, B., , and J. M. Wallace, 2000: The principal mode of interannual variability of the North American Monsoon System. J. Climate, 13 , 27942800.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 56 56 27
PDF Downloads 48 48 23

An Index of Interannual Precipitation Variability in the Core of the North American Monsoon Region

View More View Less
  • 1 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

Seasonal precipitation anomalies associated with the continental North American monsoon system are characterized using a land-based dataset derived from in situ observations across the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. Coherent regions of interannual continental precipitation variability are derived from principal component analysis, after defining separate “early” and “late” summer monsoon seasons. The gravest mode of late-season interannual variability captures precipitation anomalies in the core of the continental monsoon domain. A simple spatial average is developed as an index of this core variability. The seasonal separation allows examination of persistence of precipitation anomalies as an indicator of practical late-season predictability. Possible influences of large-scale oceanic interannual fluctuations [ENSO and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)] on core index precipitation anomalies are also considered. The core precipitation index exhibits considerably more early-to-late-season persistence than an ocean-centered precipitation index. Implications of these results for monthly/seasonal predictability of warm-season precipitation are discussed.

Corresponding author address: Dr. David S. Gutzler, Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, MSC03-2040, Albuquerque, NM 87131. Email: gutzler@unm.edu

Abstract

Seasonal precipitation anomalies associated with the continental North American monsoon system are characterized using a land-based dataset derived from in situ observations across the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. Coherent regions of interannual continental precipitation variability are derived from principal component analysis, after defining separate “early” and “late” summer monsoon seasons. The gravest mode of late-season interannual variability captures precipitation anomalies in the core of the continental monsoon domain. A simple spatial average is developed as an index of this core variability. The seasonal separation allows examination of persistence of precipitation anomalies as an indicator of practical late-season predictability. Possible influences of large-scale oceanic interannual fluctuations [ENSO and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)] on core index precipitation anomalies are also considered. The core precipitation index exhibits considerably more early-to-late-season persistence than an ocean-centered precipitation index. Implications of these results for monthly/seasonal predictability of warm-season precipitation are discussed.

Corresponding author address: Dr. David S. Gutzler, Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, MSC03-2040, Albuquerque, NM 87131. Email: gutzler@unm.edu

Save