North Atlantic Winter SLP Anomalies Based on the Autumn ENSO State

D. Pozo-Vázquez Departamento de Física, Universidad de Jaén, Jaén, Spain

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S. R. Gámiz-Fortis Departamento de Física Aplicada, Universidad de Granada, Granada, Spain

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J. Tovar-Pescador Departamento de Física, Universidad de Jaén, Jaén, Spain

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M. J. Esteban-Parra Departamento de Física Aplicada, Universidad de Granada, Granada, Spain

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Y. Castro-DÍez Departamento de Física Aplicada, Universidad de Granada, Granada, Spain

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Abstract

The winter sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere have been analyzed over the period 1873–2000 based on the ENSO state during the previous autumn. First, a set of extreme cold and warm ENSO events and periods that may be regarded as normal is selected using the SST data of the Niño-3 region. This selection is carried out for autumn and with the constraint that the ENSO event is well developed. For the winters following these selected autumn events, composites of Northern Hemisphere SLP anomalies have been obtained and compared to each other. A study of the consistency among events of the relationship between ENSO and SLP anomalies was also carried out. Results show the preference for a positive NAO-like SLP anomaly pattern in the North Atlantic region during the winters following autumns of strong cold ENSO events and, thus, suggest the existence of a potential source of predictability for the North Atlantic climate. An additional analysis of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index confirms this finding. The possible physical basis of this source of predictability for the North Atlantic climate is discussed.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Antonio David Pozo-Vázquez, Departamento de Física, Escuela Politécnica Superior, Universidad de Jaén, Edificio A-3, Campus Lagunillas, 23071 Jaén, Spain. Email: dpozo@ujaen.es

Abstract

The winter sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere have been analyzed over the period 1873–2000 based on the ENSO state during the previous autumn. First, a set of extreme cold and warm ENSO events and periods that may be regarded as normal is selected using the SST data of the Niño-3 region. This selection is carried out for autumn and with the constraint that the ENSO event is well developed. For the winters following these selected autumn events, composites of Northern Hemisphere SLP anomalies have been obtained and compared to each other. A study of the consistency among events of the relationship between ENSO and SLP anomalies was also carried out. Results show the preference for a positive NAO-like SLP anomaly pattern in the North Atlantic region during the winters following autumns of strong cold ENSO events and, thus, suggest the existence of a potential source of predictability for the North Atlantic climate. An additional analysis of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index confirms this finding. The possible physical basis of this source of predictability for the North Atlantic climate is discussed.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Antonio David Pozo-Vázquez, Departamento de Física, Escuela Politécnica Superior, Universidad de Jaén, Edificio A-3, Campus Lagunillas, 23071 Jaén, Spain. Email: dpozo@ujaen.es

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