Article Type:
Article Commentary

Comments on “Impacts of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Scheme”

Patrick J. Michaels Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia

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Paul C. Knappenberger New Hope Environmental Services, Inc., New Hope, Virginia

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Christopher Landsea NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida

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Print Publication:
01 Dec 2005
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3592.1
Page(s):
5179–5182
Restricted access

Abstract

In a simulation of enhanced tropical cyclones in a warmer world, Knutson and Tuleya make several assumptions that are not borne out in the real world. They include an unrealistically large carbon dioxide growth rate, an overly strong relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity, and the use of a mesoscale model that has shown little to no useful skill in predicting current-day hurricane intensity. After accounting for these inaccuracies, a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane intensity in response to growing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels during this century becomes unlikely.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400123, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4123. Email: pjm8x@virginia.edu

Abstract

In a simulation of enhanced tropical cyclones in a warmer world, Knutson and Tuleya make several assumptions that are not borne out in the real world. They include an unrealistically large carbon dioxide growth rate, an overly strong relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity, and the use of a mesoscale model that has shown little to no useful skill in predicting current-day hurricane intensity. After accounting for these inaccuracies, a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane intensity in response to growing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels during this century becomes unlikely.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400123, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4123. Email: pjm8x@virginia.edu

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