Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Tropical–North Pacific Climate Linkages over the Past Four Centuries

Rosanne D’Arrigo Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

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Rob Wilson School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, Edinburgh University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

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Clara Deser NCAR, Boulder, Colorado

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Gregory Wiles The College of Wooster, Wooster, Ohio

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Edward Cook Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

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Ricardo Villalba IANIGLA, Mendoza, Argentina

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Alexander Tudhope School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, Edinburgh University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

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Julia Cole Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson Arizona

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Braddock Linsley Program in Geological Sciences, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

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Print Publication:
15 Dec 2005
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3602.1
Page(s):
5253–5265
Restricted access

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Abstract

Analyses of instrumental data demonstrate robust linkages between decadal-scale North Pacific and tropical Indo-Pacific climatic variability. These linkages encompass common regime shifts, including the noteworthy 1976 transition in Pacific climate. However, information on Pacific decadal variability and the tropical high-latitude climate connection is limited prior to the twentieth century. Herein tree-ring analysis is employed to extend the understanding of North Pacific climatic variability and related tropical linkages over the past four centuries. To this end, a tree-ring reconstruction of the December–May North Pacific index (NPI)—an index of the atmospheric circulation related to the Aleutian low pressure cell—is presented (1600–1983). The NPI reconstruction shows evidence for the three regime shifts seen in the instrumental NPI data, and for seven events in prior centuries. It correlates significantly with both instrumental tropical climate indices and a coral-based reconstruction of an optimal tropical Indo-Pacific climate index, supporting evidence for a tropical–North Pacific link extending as far west as the western Indian Ocean. The coral-based reconstruction (1781–1993) shows the twentieth-century regime shifts evident in the instrumental NPI and instrumental tropical Indo-Pacific climate index, and three previous shifts. Changes in the strength of correlation between the reconstructions over time, and the different identified shifts in both series prior to the twentieth century, suggest a varying tropical influence on North Pacific climate, with greater influence in the twentieth century. One likely mechanism is the low-frequency variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its varying impact on Indo-Pacific climate.

* Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Contribution Number 6799

Corresponding author address: Rosanne D’Arrigo, Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, 61 Rte. 9W, Palisades, NY 10964. Email: rdd@ldeo.columbia.edu

Abstract

Analyses of instrumental data demonstrate robust linkages between decadal-scale North Pacific and tropical Indo-Pacific climatic variability. These linkages encompass common regime shifts, including the noteworthy 1976 transition in Pacific climate. However, information on Pacific decadal variability and the tropical high-latitude climate connection is limited prior to the twentieth century. Herein tree-ring analysis is employed to extend the understanding of North Pacific climatic variability and related tropical linkages over the past four centuries. To this end, a tree-ring reconstruction of the December–May North Pacific index (NPI)—an index of the atmospheric circulation related to the Aleutian low pressure cell—is presented (1600–1983). The NPI reconstruction shows evidence for the three regime shifts seen in the instrumental NPI data, and for seven events in prior centuries. It correlates significantly with both instrumental tropical climate indices and a coral-based reconstruction of an optimal tropical Indo-Pacific climate index, supporting evidence for a tropical–North Pacific link extending as far west as the western Indian Ocean. The coral-based reconstruction (1781–1993) shows the twentieth-century regime shifts evident in the instrumental NPI and instrumental tropical Indo-Pacific climate index, and three previous shifts. Changes in the strength of correlation between the reconstructions over time, and the different identified shifts in both series prior to the twentieth century, suggest a varying tropical influence on North Pacific climate, with greater influence in the twentieth century. One likely mechanism is the low-frequency variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its varying impact on Indo-Pacific climate.

* Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Contribution Number 6799

Corresponding author address: Rosanne D’Arrigo, Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, 61 Rte. 9W, Palisades, NY 10964. Email: rdd@ldeo.columbia.edu

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