Characterization of the 11-Year Solar Signal Using a Multiple Regression Analysis of the ERA-40 Dataset

Simon A. Crooks Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Search for other papers by Simon A. Crooks in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
and
Lesley J. Gray Department of Meteorology, Reading University, Reading, United Kingdom

Search for other papers by Lesley J. Gray in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

A multiple linear regression analysis of the ERA-40 dataset for the period 1979–2001 has been used to study the influence of the 11-yr solar cycle on atmospheric temperature and zonal winds. Volcanic, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), ENSO, and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signatures are also presented. The solar signal is shown to be readily distinguishable from the volcanic signal. The main solar signal is a statistically significant positive response (i.e., warmer in solar maximum) of 1.75 K over the equator with peak values at 43 km and a reversed signal of similar magnitude at high latitudes that is seasonally dependent. Consistent with this is a statistically significant zonal wind response of up to 6 m s−1 in the subtropical upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere that is also seasonally dependent. The wind anomalies are westerly/easterly in solar maximum/minimum. In addition, there is a statistically significant temperature response in the subtropical lower stratosphere that shows similarity in spatial structure to the QBO response, suggesting a possible interaction between the solar and QBO signals in this region. The solar response in tropospheric zonal winds is small but significant, confirming previous studies that indicate a possible modulation of the Hadley circulation.

Corresponding author address: Simon Anthony Crooks, AOPP, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Clarendon Laboratory, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PU, United Kingdom. Email: crooks@atm.ox.ac.uk

Abstract

A multiple linear regression analysis of the ERA-40 dataset for the period 1979–2001 has been used to study the influence of the 11-yr solar cycle on atmospheric temperature and zonal winds. Volcanic, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), ENSO, and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signatures are also presented. The solar signal is shown to be readily distinguishable from the volcanic signal. The main solar signal is a statistically significant positive response (i.e., warmer in solar maximum) of 1.75 K over the equator with peak values at 43 km and a reversed signal of similar magnitude at high latitudes that is seasonally dependent. Consistent with this is a statistically significant zonal wind response of up to 6 m s−1 in the subtropical upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere that is also seasonally dependent. The wind anomalies are westerly/easterly in solar maximum/minimum. In addition, there is a statistically significant temperature response in the subtropical lower stratosphere that shows similarity in spatial structure to the QBO response, suggesting a possible interaction between the solar and QBO signals in this region. The solar response in tropospheric zonal winds is small but significant, confirming previous studies that indicate a possible modulation of the Hadley circulation.

Corresponding author address: Simon Anthony Crooks, AOPP, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Clarendon Laboratory, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PU, United Kingdom. Email: crooks@atm.ox.ac.uk

Save
  • Angell, J. K., 1991: Stratosphere temperature change as a function of height and sunspot number during 1972–89 based on rocketsonde and radiosonde data. J. Climate, 4 , 11701180.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Baldwin, M. P., and T. J. Dunkerton, 1999: Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 104 , 3093730946.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Baldwin, M. P., and Coauthors, 2001: The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Rev. Geophys, 39 , 179229.

  • Battisti, D. S., and E. S. Sarachik, 1995: Understanding and predicting ENSO. Rev. Geophys, 33 , 13671376.

  • Chanin, M. L., V. Ramaswamy, D. J. Gaffen, W. J. Randel, R. B. Rood, and M. Shiotani, 1999: Trends in stratospheric temperatures. Scientific Assesment of Ozone Depletion, 1998: WMO Rep. 44, D. L. Albritton et al., Eds., 5.1–5.51.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Donnelly, R. F., H. E. Hinteregger, and D. F. Heath, 1986: Temporal variations of solar EUV, UV, and 10830-å radiations. J. Geophys. Res., 91 , 55675578.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dunkerton, T. J., D. P. Delisi, and M. P. Baldwin, 1998: Middle atmosphere cooling trend in historical rocketsonde data. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 , 33713374.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eluszkiewicz, J., D. Crisp, R. G. Grainger, A. Lambert, J. B. Roche, A. E. Kumer, and J. L. Mergenthaler, 1997: Sensitivity of the residual circulation diagnosed from the UARS data to the uncertainties in the input fields and to the inclusion of aerosols. J. Atmos. Sci., 54 , 17391757.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Friis-Christensen, E., and K. Lassen, 1991: Length of the solar cycle: An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science, 294 , 698700.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gray, L. J., S. A. Crooks, C. Pascoe, and S. Sparrow, 2004: Solar and QBO influences on the timing of stratospheric sudden warmings. J. Atmos. Sci., 61 , 27772796.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Haigh, J. D., 1996: The impact of solar variability on climate. Science, 272 , 981984.

  • Haigh, J. D., 1999: A GCM study of climate change in response to the 11-year solar cycle. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125 , 871892.

  • Haigh, J. D., 2000: Solar variability and climate. Weather, 55 , 399406.

  • Haigh, J. D., 2003: The effects of solar variability on the earth’s climate. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, 361 , 95111.

  • Harrison, D. E., and N. K. Larkin, 1998: El Niño–Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature and wind anomalies, 1956–1993. Rev. Geophys, 36 , 353399.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hood, L. L., 2004: Effects of solar UV variability on the stratosphere. Solar Variability and Its Effects on Climate, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 141, Amer. Geophys. Union.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Nogeur, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, 392 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hurrell, J. W., Y. Kushnir, and M. Visbeck, 2001: The North Atlantic Oscillation. Science, 291 , 603605.

  • Jones, P. D., T. Jonsson, and D. Wheeler, 1997: Extension to the North Atlantic oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and South-West Iceland. Int. J. Climatol., 17 , 14331450.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Keckhut, P., A. Hauchecorne, and M-L. Chanin, 1995: Midlatitude long-term variability of the middle atmosphere: Trends and cyclic and episodic changes. J. Geophys. Res., 100 , 1888718897.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Keckhut, P., C. Cagnazzo, M-L. Chanin, C. Claud, and A. Hauchecorne, 2005: The 11-yr solar-cycle effects on the temperature in the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere. Part I: Assessment of observations. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., in press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Labitzke, K., and H. van Loon, 1988: Associations between the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO and the atmosphere. Part I: The troposphere and stratosphere in the northern hemisphere. J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 50 , 197206.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Labitzke, K., J. Austin, N. Butchart, J. Knight, T. Masaaki, T. Nakamoto, J. Haigh, and V. Williams, 2002a: The global signal of the 11-year solar cycle in the stratosphere: Observations and models. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 64 , 203210.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Labitzke, K., and Coauthors, 2002b: The Berlin Stratospheric Data Series. Meteorological Institute, Free University Berlin, CD-ROM. [Available online at http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/products/cdrom/*.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Larkin, A., J. D. Haigh, and S. Djavidnia, 2000: The effect of solar UV irradiance variations on the Earth’s atmosphere. Space Sci. Rev., 94 , 199214.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lee, H., and A. K. Smith, 2003: Simulation of the combined effects of solar cycle, frecent decades. J. Geophys. Res., 108 .4049, doi:10.1029/2001JD001503.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pascoe, C., L. J. Gray, S. A. Crooks, M. Juckes, and M. Baldwin, 2005: The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation: Analysis using era-40 data. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ramaswamy, V., and Coauthors, 2001: Stratospheric temperature trends: Observations and model simulations. Rev. Geophys, 39 , 72122.

  • Randel, W. J., F. Wu, R. Swinbank, J. Nash, and A. O’Neill, 1999: Global QBO circulation derived from UKMO stratospheric analyses. J. Atmos. Sci., 56 , 457474.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reid, G. C., 1994: Seasonal and interannual temperature variations in the tropical stratosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 99 , 1892318932.

  • Robock, A., 2000: Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev. Geophys, 38 , 191219.

  • Salby, M. L., and D. J. Shea, 1991: Correlations between solar activity and the atmosphere: An unphysical explanation. J. Geophys. Res., 96 , 2257922595.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Salby, M., and P. Callaghan, 2004: Evidence of the solar cycle in the general circulation of the stratosphere. J. Climate, 17 , 3446.

  • Sato, M., J. E. Hansen, M. P. McCormick, and J. B. Pollack, 1993: Stratospheric aerosol optical depth (1850–1990). J. Geophys. Res., 98 , 2298722994.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Scaife, A. A., J. Austin, N. Butchart, S. Pawson, M. Keil, J. Nash, and I. N. James, 2000: Seasonal and interannual variability of the stratosphere diagnosed from UKMO TOVS analyses. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126 , 25852604.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Scott, R. K., and P. H. Haynes, 1998: Internal interannual variability of the extratropical stratospheric circulation: The low-latitude flywheel. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124 , 21492173.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Solomon, S., R. Portmann, R. R. Garcia, L. W. Thomason, L. R. Poole, and M. P. McCormick, 1996: The role of aerosol variations in anthropogenic ozone depletion at northern midlatitudes. J. Geophys. Res., 101 , 67136727.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 1998: The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 , 12971300.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • van Loon, H., and K. Labitzke, 1999: The influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the stratosphere below 30 km: A review. Space Sci. Rev., 94 , 259278.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1013 351 26
PDF Downloads 621 152 17