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Atlantic Atmosphere–Ocean Interaction: A Stochastic Climate Model–Based Diagnosis

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  • 1 Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
  • | 2 Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
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Abstract

A simple linear stochastic climate model of extratropical wintertime ocean–atmosphere coupling is used to diagnose the daily interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere in a fully coupled general circulation model. Monte Carlo simulations with the simple model show that the influence of the ocean on the atmosphere can be difficult to estimate, being biased low even with multiple decades of daily data. Despite this, fitting the simple model to the surface air temperature and sea surface temperature data from the complex general circulation model reveals an ocean-to-atmosphere influence in the northeastern Atlantic. Furthermore, the simple model is used to demonstrate that the ocean in this region greatly enhances the autocorrelation in overlying lower-tropospheric temperatures at lags from a few days to many months.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Timothy J. Mosedale, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, P.O. Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB, United Kingdom. Email: t.j.mosedale@reading.ac.uk

Abstract

A simple linear stochastic climate model of extratropical wintertime ocean–atmosphere coupling is used to diagnose the daily interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere in a fully coupled general circulation model. Monte Carlo simulations with the simple model show that the influence of the ocean on the atmosphere can be difficult to estimate, being biased low even with multiple decades of daily data. Despite this, fitting the simple model to the surface air temperature and sea surface temperature data from the complex general circulation model reveals an ocean-to-atmosphere influence in the northeastern Atlantic. Furthermore, the simple model is used to demonstrate that the ocean in this region greatly enhances the autocorrelation in overlying lower-tropospheric temperatures at lags from a few days to many months.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Timothy J. Mosedale, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, P.O. Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB, United Kingdom. Email: t.j.mosedale@reading.ac.uk

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